A Stronger Second Coalition

[Venocara]

What would be the effect if Spain never agreed the Second Treaty of San Ildefonso with France (in 1796) and as a result joined in the Second and perhaps Third Coalitions? What if Prussia, who also weren't in these Coalitions in OTL, joined as well? Could it make the difference in terms of defeating France early, or just hasten the fall of the Spanish monarchy and the onset of Prussian reforms?

 

[J. A. Belanger]

If Spain doesn't sign the Second Treaty of San Ildefonso many things change for France, even if they didn't publicly ally with any of the Second Coalition powers until after the war starts. France would be looking at its age old problem of being surrounded by possible enemies. If the National Assembly acted rationally they may have proceeded quite differently. It's not usually a good idea to start a war with another power when you are surrounded. But rationality is not something I would have accused the National Assembly of.

 

[Venocara]

It's not usually a good idea to start a war with another power when you are surrounded. But rationality is not something I would have accused the National Assembly of.

Do you think that this could be the decisive factor against France when the Second Coalition does come around?

 

[J. A. Belanger]

It could have, especially if Napoleon still attempts the Syrian invasion (thought that is significantly less likely). I think it would mostly depend on who the republic puts where. The thing is France had a very good track record of fight all of Europe at once, a large part due to its large population. The republic did gut the military leadership during the revolution. And while they were starting to get some competent commanders it still did not seem to be on par with the established armies at the time.

 

[Venocara]

It could have, especially if Napoleon still attempts the Syrian invasion (thought that is significantly less likely). I think it would mostly depend on who the republic puts where. The thing is France had a very good track record of fight all of Europe at once, a large part due to its large population. The republic did gut the military leadership during the revolution. And while they were starting to get some competent commanders it still did not seem to be on par with the established armies at the time.

So assuming the Second Coalition starts when it did in OTL (which it might not if Napoleon didn't seize Malta on his way to Egypt) would the Spanish or the French strike first? And if war does break out between France and Spain, how does this affect French efforts against the Anglo-Russian invasion of Holland and the campaigns against Russia and Austria in Switzerland and Italy? What role does Prussia play in all of this?

 

[J. A. Belanger]

So assuming the Second Coalition starts when it did in OTL (which it might not if Napoleon didn't seize Malta on his way to Egypt) would the Spanish or the French strike first? And if war does break out between France and Spain, how does this affect French efforts against the Anglo-Russian invasion of Holland and the campaigns against Russia and Austria in Switzerland and Italy? What role does Prussia play in all of this?

I think this would depend on why the Spanish don't sign/are they hostile to the republic before the war. The change is not a hard one to make, but I think whatever made the change is very important.