A French Ruhr-Equivalent (Saar-Lorraine-Luxembourg)

[Jackson Lennock]

The Luxembourg Crisis of OTL erupts into war between the North German Confederation and France. The Southern German states stayed neutral because Prussia was the aggressor in seeking to block the sale. France successfully purchases Luxembourg and annexes Saarland, Saarburg, and portions of Prussia that had previously been part of Luxembourg (Bitburg, Waxweiler, Neuerburg, and St. Vith), giving France a defensible border on the Eifel and Saar river.


If the Coal and Iron were in a single country, could a Saarland-Lorraine-Luxembourg industrial region have emerged which rivaled the OTL Ruhr? How big an impact would this have on French power?




Black indicates annexed lands. Blue is iron ore in Lorraine and Red is coal in Saar and adjacent portions of Lorraine.

 

[Death's Companion]

The Luxembourg Crisis of OTL erupts into war between the North German Confederation and France. The Southern German states stayed neutral because Prussia was the aggressor in seeking to block the sale. France successfully purchases Luxembourg and annexes Saarland, Saarburg, and portions of Prussia that had previously been part of Luxembourg (Bitburg, Waxweiler, Neuerburg, and St. Vith), giving France a defensible border on the Eifel and Saar river.


If the Coal and Iron were in a single country, could a Saarland-Lorraine-Luxembourg industrial region have emerged which rivaled the OTL Ruhr? How big an impact would this have on French power?


View attachment 64296

Black indicates annexed lands. Blue is iron ore in Lorraine and Red is coal in Saar and adjacent portions of Lorraine.

Don't think they would sit out given whilst Prussia might have been the technical aggressor in going back on their word pretty much all the compromise proposals all the various nations put forwards seemed to be variations of France backing down but getting paid off somewhere else.

German opinion seemed very strongly against the French getting the territory and there were already Prussian forces present and much of the fighting would take place on their territory.

Frankly I also don't see the French winning. They may not get crushed like in 1870 but their army in 1866 had all the same weaknesses.

 

[LSCatilina]

I'd probably be less pessimistic about the odds of French military victory than @Death's Companion there, as well not necessarily seeing an immediate national mobilisation in Germany for the sake of Luxemburg.

On the other hand, what I think is going to significantly impact is the political situation and limits of French diplomacy.
First because French aren't going to feel more concerned about Luxembourg and Sarre than Germans would.
But especially because that a war of annexation in Europe would tremendously hamper the relations between France and the United Kingdom, whereas Napoleon III strived to keep as much as possible of a good partnership with London : historically, this is one of the main reasons why he didn't pursue the issue and claims during the Luxembourg Affair, as it turned real sour with the UK.

So before even considering the military situation, you'd need to create the conditions for London being at least neutral enough to limited French claims (buying Luxembourg and a return to the border of 1814 at very best IMO) or have a vested interest on seeing France intervening against a more threatening Germany although I don't see how myself without going as far as the 1840's, which might easily butterfly Nappie III's policies partly or completely : maybe a more successful, and thus more credible, French involvement in Italy? But how to turn Germany into a situation UK would want to see dealt with?

More than limited claims and conquests, less than an obvious reason for London to treat Napoleon III as a partner in co-arbitrating a post-1815 Europe or at least a necessary evil in dealing with Germany, I wouldn't really see a war in 1866 possible or, at least, one that wouldn't turn French European politics on their head and at a significant disadvantage.