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2002 French presidential election

OwenM

Repeatedly Accused of Attempted Murder
#1
Famous in OTL for being the one where the Socialist came third, if Jospin had come second he would have been well placed to win in the second round.
A few PODs for this have been suggested over the years - Chevenement not coming out of his coma, Taubira not running, Megret doing a bit better and taking more votes off Le Pen, or, possibly the most constitutionally interesting coming from @Redolegna, Jospin doesn't succeed in getting the legislatives delayed and the left win them to give him more momentum going in (which possibly also sets up a TL where that happens and he still gets eliminated for maximum banter levels).
But how would President Jospin have been different from President Chirac in 2002-2007 on specific big issues? Who would have been PM? How would it have affected the European constitution referendum? Would he have run again in 2007, and who would have been his likely opponents?
 

Archibald

Well-known member
Patreon supporter
#2
Chirac was a big corrupt moron and Jospin his polar opposite, so France may be a better place. This said, the August 2003 heat wave that left 15 000 ederly people dead had roots causes long before 2002. Although a faster reaction might reduce the death toll.

the november 2005 urban riots by contrast may be far less severe.

While Jospin is 10 times better than Hollande, don't underestimate the French socialist party (PS) capability to screw things ITTL. See OTL 2002 and 2017, sweet Jesus... Snatching a crippling defeat out of the jaws of a huge initial success, the PS pretty excels at the job. Hollande (the very same fatty that later was president in 2012, and ended at 4% in the polls) was the PS leader all the way from 1997 to 2008 and left the party in ruins, the idiot.
 
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Archibald

Well-known member
Patreon supporter
#3
Basically Chirac was kind of Agnew / Nixon for the scandals with Carter malaise - go figure ! That mix directly led to the 2005 riots and lot of other shit.

At least ITTL Sarkozy never, ever come back, the little SOB. It was Chirac wife that in 2002 saved Sarkozy and landed him a ministry. Bernadette, you ugly and naughty wife, only Thatcher was more evil...
 

Archibald

Well-known member
Patreon supporter
#5
you nailed it well... without sarkozy and without De villepin, he would be the obvious candidate in 2007.

Sarkozy for electoral reasons also shamelessly adopted a FN rethoric that deeply polarized and divided french society... and made the FN even stronger by popularizing their ideas and make them more acceptable to a broad audience.
 
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Archibald

Well-known member
Patreon supporter
#9
You are right much like Weinstein in Hollywood a lot of people knew that DSK couldn't kept his zipper shut. And nobody said anything. Now if Ségolène 2007 and Hollande 2012 never happen... DSK was bright enough he may be a favorite. And then scandals will explode, Edwards or Clinton style. There will be blood (and semen) all over the place...

the 2007 socialist primary (first of its kind) was Royal vs Fabius vs DSK. Royal was kind of accident of history - think Obama 2008, could be butterflied easily.
DSK was pretty much Hillary 2008.
Fabius is an old arse, very much the PS Giscard, DSK would crush him.

DSK vs Juppé in 2007 (or 2012) would be fought on the economy.
PM Juppé 1995 - 1997 made hard reforms and paid the price before Chirac screwed the legislatives... and then the left rose to power as France economy boomed between 1997 and 2001... DSK was minister of economy.
Both men are bright and very capable economists, big brains.
 
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Archibald

Well-known member
Patreon supporter
#11
Hard to say... since the SFIO in 1920 the french socialists had endured huge defeats/setbacks yet like the Phoenix... you know they rose back from the ashes. Hollande is the ultimate exemple of plasticity. Good for nothing, sneaked out of electoral disasters, ended president.

Macron, for all his flaws, brought down the 95 year old dinosaurus from the outside. ITTL the PS might have rebounded once again, from an insider, either a Montebourg or an Aubry or one of the so-called elephants.
 

Archibald

Well-known member
Patreon supporter
#14
back to the thread

Président Jospin 2002 2007 - then what ?
voters fatigue mean the right could return - without Chirac or Sarko. Probably Juppé. more on this later.
 

Archibald

Well-known member
Patreon supporter
#15
Sarkozy career would stay dead with a different 2002. For the record he stabbed Chirac in 95 supporting Balladur and then the french right imploded even with Chirac victory. Plus Juppé burned himself with the huge 12/1995 strikes when he reformed retirement plans.
France got paralyzed for a month.

Leading to Chirac huge 97 goof - calling legislatives in the hope of uniting the right once again - only to be stuck with Jospin for 5 years.
 
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Archibald

Well-known member
Patreon supporter
#16
French economy was fast growing from 1996 to 2002 then slumped after 9/11 - France own internal turmoil did not helped either, plus Chirac and PM Raffarin, dear God. They sucked hugely and were the final nail in the coffin. Hard to guess how a Jospin gvt would have handled the post 9/11 economic downturn.

What is sure is that France would still back the Afghan war to kick Osama arse - but Iraq would still be a no-go. Hubert Védrines would take De Villepin role at the UN and acts similarly - if no solid proof of Saddam WMD, then go screw yourself.

And then there is the European crisis of 2005.
OTL Raffarin got a great meltdown live on TV that left many people WTF ? and many others ROTFLMAO.

"ouine ze yes nide ze no to ouine ayanne ze no".

This day Raffarin was even nuttier than Les Guignols puppet of himself. Which speaks volume. Dear God I' m laughing like an idiot just typing this.

Meanwhile mid May 2005 Jospin went out of this self inflicted silence and exile and spoke in favor of the yes. The yes instantly got a boost unfortunately it wasn't enough. The PS led by fatty Hollande supported the yes but Fabius the asshole led a rebellion for the no... and the no won. Freck. it was a disaster for Chirac Raffarin Hollande France and Europe.
ITTL president Jospin could get the yes winning easily.

That European treaty and " le quinquennat " were both made by Giscard partly to annoy Chirac he hates since since 1981. Giscard would be robbed of that pleasure with Jospin. :p
More seriously maybe someone else than Giscard would result in a more understandable treaty for the masses and less rejection of it.
 
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