Hell Yes, We Can, Pt. 4
A referendum took place on Thursday 19 September 2019 on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom. The referendum question was, "Should Scotland be an independent country?", which voters answered with "Yes" or "No". The "No" side won with 2,035,259 (60.5%) voting against independence and 1,328,916 (39.5%) voting in favour. The turnout of 77.2% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since 1992.
The Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2018 set out the arrangements for the referendum and was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2013, following an agreement between the devolved Scottish government and the Government of the United Kingdom. The independence proposal required a simple majority to pass. All European Union (EU) or Commonwealth citizens residing in Scotland age 16 or over could vote, with some exceptions, which produced a total electorate of over 4,300,000 people. This was the first time that the electoral franchise was extended to include 16- and 17-year-olds in Scotland.
Yes Scotland was the main campaign group for independence, while Better Together was the main campaign group in favour of maintaining the union. Many other campaign groups, political parties, businesses, newspapers, and prominent individuals were also involved. The campaign was dominated by the fallout of the sexual misconduct allegations against Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, the leading campaigner for a ‘Yes’ vote. Despite maintaining his innocence, in September 2018, Salmond announced he would be temporarily stepping aside from leading the devolved government in order to ‘avoid unnecessary distractions’ for the pro-independence campaign. He was replaced by Deputy First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, on an interim basis. In January 2019, Salmond was arrested by Police Scotland. This event combined with the growing popularity of Sturgeon to create a growing leadership crisis within the Scottish National Party (SNP), as well as an increasingly public feud between supporters of Salmond and Sturgeon. In March 2020, over half a year after the referendum result, Salmond was cleared of all charges, and returned to the post of First Minister on a full time basis.
An exit poll revealed that the perceived divisions and incompetence that existed within the Scottish government was the biggest factor for those who voted ‘No’, with other motivating factors including questions over the currency an independent Scotland would use, public expenditure, EU membership, and North Sea oil. "Disaffection with Westminster politics" was rated as the deciding factor for those who voted Yes.
The 2020 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 18 June 2020. The Labour Party, which had previously governed as a minority under Prime Minister Ed Miliband, won an overall majority of fifty seats in the House of Commons. This was the fifth election out of the previous six to result in a Labour government.
The election was defined by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which had placed significant pressure on the UK health care system, and had forced large swathes of the economy to shut down, or make significant adjustments in order to prevent the spread of the virus. Miliband and the Labour government won widespread public approval for their response to the crisis. In contrast, the Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, were roundly criticised for their initial opposition to lockdown measures, and for their subsequent lack of clarity in how they would respond to the pandemic.
These factors were perceived to the biggest driver of Labour’s remarkable turnaround in fortunes in the months leading up to the election. Having trailed in almost every national opinion poll since 2015, they gained a clear polling lead for the first time in the parliamentary cycle in March 2020, ultimately winning the popular vote by a margin of two and a half million, and reducing the Conservative Party to 254 Seats in the new parliament.
Besides the pandemic, major issues debated in the campaign how the government should respond to the concurrent economic crisis, future levels of public spending and taxation, and climate, following the UK’s commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Labour manifesto was notably more radical than it's 2015 predecessor, pledging to create one million jobs through government investment in the green economy, to expand employee rights in the workplace, and to increase taxation on high earners and large companies as a means of alleviating the debt burden taken on during the pandemic. The Conservative Party's campaign focused heavily on highlighting the perceived extremism of these proposals, as well as calls for a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.
The Liberal Democrats achieved a small increase in vote share over their historically poor performance in 2015, but nevertheless experienced a net loss of seats, in part due to the retirement of several incumbent MPs. The UK Independence Party (UKIP) suffered a poor result, losing all three of the seats they had won five years previously. This was partly attributed to their 2015 voters migrating to the Conservatives following their shift towards a more eurosceptic stance under Boris Johnson, as well as the party’s strong opposition to lockdown, which polls showed to be a position only endorsed by a small minority of the British public.
Following the previous year’s independence referendum, the Scottish National Party (SNP) were able to win a slightly higher proportion of the vote in Scotland than in 2015, but lost two seats, in part due to the strong performance of Scottish Labour, who were able to win a total of 42 seats.
Notable MPs to lose their seats included UKIP leader Nigel Farage, and former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg-both of whom lost to Labour candidates. Following the result, Johnson, Davey, and Farage, all announced they would resign from the leadership of their respective parties.
Due to the ongoing pandemic, campaigning was severely limited, with few large-scale rallies or public events, and limited canvassing from party activists. Voters were actively encouraged to vote by post rather than at a polling station, resulting in a record of over 14 million postal ballots being cast.