2019 Britain ISOT to November 1944?

[Alex Richards]

Possibly the best bet would be loudly call for all colonies to be made independent, you could probably get both the usa and the ussr to support that and then offer any new countries a place in the federal africa you've constructed, with the understanding that a lot of the french colonies will say no at first to joining what looks like an anglophonic organisation (though again Ethiopia would be helpful for that).

And of course it's pretty obvious South Africa's staying out of this whatever happens. Stuff there's interesting enough in and of itself considering that this is the sort of thing that either leads to the National party being discredited or emboldened to 'do things properly'.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

My immediate suggestion would be to drop a nuclear bomb on some German military site; aim to choose it such that there aren't civilian deaths

None of Britain's allies (neither Stalin nor Roosevelt) will care how many German civilians die, nor how many Germany towns get the Instant Sunshine treatment, and that's the only thing that matters.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

A few cruise missiles to cut the rail to the camps and some SAS insertions to release and arm the inmates.

This is a suicide mission for all involved.

Just PGM the SS-Totenkopfverbände barracks building(s) in each camp at night, when they are at full occupation.

Most of the Vernichtungslagers in Poland have been dismantled and/or overrun so the most of the slaughter of European Jews has been achieved. It's too late to avert the worst of it.

 

[fluttersky]

None of Britain's allies (neither Stalin nor Roosevelt) will care how many German civilians die, nor how many Germany towns get the Instant Sunshine treatment, and that's the only thing that matters.

The British public, on the other hand, will care, and that does matter.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

The British public, on the other hand, will care, and that does matter.

I can't imagine that "Don't Let's Be Beastly To The Germans" will get much traction with the Great British Public, when they find out the true nature of the Germans, who are trying to kill them.

Nobody's going to give that much of a shit if Tokyo is reduced to an inferno, either.

Even so, it's probably just as well they have no influence over HMG's deployment of nuclear weapons. The only barrier to their use is the squeamishness of Boris Johnson.

He doesn't strike me as a person who gives much of a shit about people who aren't him. Especially not when the glory of victory is at hand and Brexit has solved itself.

 

[Tabac Iberez]

He doesn't strike me as a person who gives much of a shit about people who aren't him. Especially not when the glory of victory is at hand and Brexit has solved itself.

The problem is, will it be a British victory? V corps just got turned into a disabled formation, and more importantly a lot of the creature comforts of Great Britain just got turned into massive money sinks. Paying for the Army, what remains of the Royal Navy, and the massive 1942 era debt load/rationing plan will leave the sort of fiscal scar that can't be easily dodged. Worse, without any drastic populist moves he can make, I can't really fathom any move he can make to dodge the blame.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

The problem is, will it be a British victory?

That's entirely in the mind of whoever is writing the timeline, and the mind of the person reading it.

V corps just got turned into a disabled formation

V Corps' supply lines are in better shape than anyone's, except the 14th Army.

 

[Tabac Iberez]

V Corps' supply lines are in better shape than anyone's, except the 14th Army.

After a quick double-check I'll note I mixed V corps and the Second Army up; still working on Italian projects in my mind.

That said, not really. Their entire war stock in Brittan just up and vanished, and that's the sort of panic-inducing event that kills plans. An hour's shelling, at two rounds a gun on a rather measly (to modern sensibilities) 105mm gun equates to about a quarter ton of shell thrown per gun. Multiply that by an eight gun battery, and you're looking at two tons of war materiel spent, per hour, per battery- and a quick look at the order of battle gives me something around six regiments of artillery in I corps alone, so roughly 24 regiments of four batteries in the Second Army. Presuming they're all sticking to the 105mm and not the almost as common 155 6cwt guns, that's a mere 192 tons of materiel, presuming an hour of fire per gun per day- which, averaged across the army, isn't a lot. That's leaving out everything else, mind, but it starts to breach the scale of the consumption we're looking at- and why it's so critical the stockpiles vanished.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

That said, not really. Their entire war stock in Britain just up and vanished, and that's the sort of panic-inducing event that kills plans.

However, the industries of Canada/USA, and the vast quantities of Lend-Lease stuff at sea hasn't disappeared, and enough bombs at RAF Welford to utterly paralyse what's left of the Reich can be delivered by revived Tornados plus in-service Typhoons/F-35s/Strike Eagles.

Even if nukes are not used (on Germany), the Führer will be putting a Walther PPK to the roof of his mouth soon enough.

Roosevelt, however will be demanding/begging British Tridents on Iwo Jima/ mainland Japan/Kwantung Army before long, and could we say no?

 

[Tabac Iberez]

However, the industries of Canada/USA, and the vast quantities of Lend-Lease stuff at sea hasn't disappeared, and enough bombs at RAF Welford to utterly paralyse what's left of the Reich can be delivered by revived Tornados plus in-service Typhoons/F-35s/Strike Eagles

Aside from the fact that you can't really hurt the Germans above and beyond what the anti-rail campaigns have done, the issue is now time and keeping a connected frontage through France and the rest of the Low Countries. It takes time to rebuild and ship stockpiles over, and it takes even more time to reorganize the Allied order of battle so that they can most effectively use the II Army as a blocker and counter force array. IMO, the best bet for modern air power would be running out to the Pacific where it can perform recon and anti shipping strikes would be best, since getting a firm denial on the remains of the IJN is very possible.

Roosevelt, however will be demanding/begging British Tridents on Iwo Jima/ mainland Japan/Kwantung Army before long, and could we say no?

Yes, because those aren't priority targets? Iwoto is a strategic objective that needs to be taken intact, and the Kwantung Army isn't concentrated enough to really attack with nukes without killing swathes of Chinese civilians with it. There's a reason conventional logic for so long dictated countervalue strikes: it gets you the best death per dollar, and is least likely to get you friendly fire.

 

[libbrit]

None of Britain's allies (neither Stalin nor Roosevelt) will care how many German civilians die, nor how many Germany towns get the Instant Sunshine treatment, and that's the only thing that matters.

More than that, the Uptime public probably wont grumble too much, the usual suspects aside, about a bit of Instant Sunshine over Berlin-unlike the downtimers who only had rumours and assumptions at this stage, we all know the level of the evil we were fighting. Id be very surprised if a Trident on Berlin resulted in many protests.

 

[Incognitia]

More than that, the Uptime public probably wont grumble too much, the usual suspects aside, about a bit of Instant Sunshine over Berlin-unlike the downtimers who only had rumours and assumptions at this stage, we all know the level of the evil we were fighting. Id be very surprised if a Trident on Berlin resulted in many protests.

You would be pretty bloody surprised then.

That's a major city with millions of civilians, including not just Germans but also slave labourers etc.

Opposition to nuking any Nazi target, anywhere - that'll be pretty limited. Opposition to killing tens to hundreds of thousands of civilians with nuclear weapons? That'll be widespread. Don't expect a government that makes that choice to long survive the end of the war, if it even gets that far.

 

[Alex Richards]

I mean Dresden is pretty widely considered a bad move theseadays. Not necessarily 'oh yeah we totally comitted war crimes' but 'yeah shouldn't have done that.'

Hitting Peenemunde, or Rostock, or Stettin, or some other smaller place might be acceptable.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

You would be pretty bloody surprised then. That's a major city with millions of civilians, including not just Germans but also slave labourers etc.

HMG is already on the hook for 100,000s of civilian deaths, in Germany, Italy and France. The incineration of Hamburg and the Dambusters raid will be fresh in downtimers memory, if not uptimers.

Opposition to nuking any Nazi target, anywhere - that'll be pretty limited

Every target is a Nazi target, even Pforzheim, Hildesheim or Dresden.

Hitting Peenemunde, or Rostock, or Stettin, or some other smaller place might be acceptable.

A 100kt warhead on those places is going to cause a lot of civilian deaths, level churches, schools and hospitals, and produce more gruesomely-injured survivors than the Reich can cope with.

It would be Boris Johnson's 'Churchill moment'.

With the July 20th Plotters being wiped out, and the UK still vulnerable, I can't see much alternative.

 

[Tabac Iberez]

Hitting Peenemunde, or Rostock, or Stettin, or some other smaller place might be acceptable.

At least hit someplace important, then, like the bases out past Hamburg proper or the Krupp production complexes in (iirc) Hesse. We have a lot of data to work with, and more importantly computers, so figuring out the niceties of targeting won't be that bad.

 

[Incognitia]

HMG is already on the hook for 100,000s of civilian deaths, in Germany, Italy and France. The incineration of Hamburg and the Dambusters raid will be fresh in downtimers memory, if not uptimers.

It's the reactions of 2019 Brits that will lead to protests if HMG makes genocidal attacks on civilian targets, so what matters is what's fresh in their memories.

 

[libbrit]

It's the reactions of 2019 Brits that will lead to protests if HMG makes genocidal attacks on civilian targets, so what matters is what's fresh in their memories.

I don't believe the 2019 population would be that furious that they would topple the government. As i say, we know, in 2019, quite how evil the Nazis were, in a way which only came out after the war, in the likes of the Nurenburg Trials. Using weapons against them is not IMO going to bring down the government. Should teh government wish, it can do a massive PR blitz prior to any attacks to make sure the population are reminded of the Nazi crimes, the consequences of defeat and to remind that we are in a Total War situation.

Certainly, efforts should be taken to minimise civilian casualties where possible, so perhaps don't take out the centre of Berlin, but given that nuclear weapons are, at least at the start, the uptimers only trump card, there is no avoiding there use at some point.

Easiest thing to do. Start off with a threatening demonstration-say off North Sea Coast, or an area of mass concentration of German forces outside urban areas.

Then take out a location personal to Mr H such as the Wolfsschanze

Should that fail to result in a surrender within X amount of days, take out a major transport or industrial hub (one which cant be readily moved or dismantled at short notice). Even give a warning, and recommend they move the civilian population.

If this doesn't result in a surrender, you then have no choice. Chose the weakest nuke you have. Pick from a major urban centre of political or economic importance, and bang.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

It's the reactions of 2019 Brits that will lead to protests if HMG makes genocidal attacks on civilian targets, so what matters is what's fresh in their memories.

Protests don't change much in the UK. The invasion of Iraq went ahead and Brexit is still ahead going despite numerous huge protests.

It's not genocide if you kill 50,000-100,000 enemy civilians in one go, it's not even a war crime. Not in 1944, anyway.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Should that fail to result in a surrender within X amount of days, take out a major transport or industrial hub (one which cant be readily moved or dismantled at short notice). Even give a warning, and recommend they move the civilian population.
If this doesn't result in a surrender, you then have no choice. Chose the weakest nuke you have. Pick from a major urban centre of political or economic importance, and bang.

Use as few W76/W88s and Trident D5LEs as possible for maximum effect - nobody makes them any more.

The Wolfsschanze, the Berghof, Wewelsburg, the Braunaus, could be destroyed by PGMs, not nukes.

The best Wehrmacht target you could take out with a single big nuke is OKH Mauerwald.

 

[libbrit]

Use as few W76/W88s and Trident D5LEs as possible for maximum effect - nobody makes them any more.

Does the UK even possess those?

I suppose its worth considering, given the uptime UK, transplanted to 1944, has the overhwelming superiority in the technical knowledge of this field, how quickly could the UK produce some relatively weak bespoke weapons. Enough to terrorize Germany, but not to level it and utterly irradiate it. No point using a 2019 hydrogen bomb when a basic Hiroshima style atomic weapon will do.