Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
The division of Korea is weird, to say the least. The Americans seem to have done so based upon a National Geographic Map which had a line at the 38th parallel. The Americans initially considered putting the line at the 39th parallel, but higher ups said to give the Soviets more out of fear they'd turn it down. Stalin got the proposal and was surprised the Americans didn't demand more. Meanwhile, Stalin was content to divide Korea rather than press for more because he hoped for an occupation zone in Japan that didn't pan out.
Meanwhile the Americans probably weren't even interested in Korea all that much prior to the Korean War. They worried about it being a base for Soviet planes to attack Japan, but didn't have many plans for it. From what I can tell, much of the reason for the US interest in Korea was in order to control the relevant ports for evacuation of Japanese in the peninsula. The Americans were concerned about lynch mobs and anti-Japanese race riots by the Koreans against the Japanese.
The Americans seemed to sort of ignore the looming threat of invasion by the North of the South until it actually happened, because of the above-mentioned disinterest. The Americans were certainly on edge following the Iran Crisis of 1946 and the Turkish Straits Crisis of 1946, but then with the Berlin Blockade/Airlift of 1946-1948, Czechoslovak Coup of 1948, and fall of China in the end of 1949, the Americans became sufficiently freaked out by the spread of Communism to pay closer attention to Korea.
Anyways, North Korea would have a population about a third smaller than OTL by the start of the Korean War. But it's also worth accounting for how OTL in the Korean War there were ~603,000 South Korean Soldiers and ~267,000 North Korean soldiers. South Korean soldiers were mostly trained and equipped for counter-insurgency operations, not formal warfare. Some 8,000 South Korean soldiers and police died from 1948 to 1950 in the insurgency operations and undeclared border conflict between the two Koreas. But here there could be a bigger disparity (~190,000 North Koreans against ~680,000 South Koreans?) and the additional territory for the South (and less wealth/resources to pull from in the north) could mean that less North Korean assistance gets to insurgents in the South. There also were between 50,000 and 70,000 PLA veterans in North Korea at the start of the Korean War (many of whom were Koreans who were either in exile from Japanese Korea or from the Gando region). And it's worth noting that while the Americans were primarily training and advising the South, the Soviets were arming the North. So the North was definitely better qualitatively, and I suspect that still would be the case.
Meanwhile the Americans probably weren't even interested in Korea all that much prior to the Korean War. They worried about it being a base for Soviet planes to attack Japan, but didn't have many plans for it. From what I can tell, much of the reason for the US interest in Korea was in order to control the relevant ports for evacuation of Japanese in the peninsula. The Americans were concerned about lynch mobs and anti-Japanese race riots by the Koreans against the Japanese.
The Americans seemed to sort of ignore the looming threat of invasion by the North of the South until it actually happened, because of the above-mentioned disinterest. The Americans were certainly on edge following the Iran Crisis of 1946 and the Turkish Straits Crisis of 1946, but then with the Berlin Blockade/Airlift of 1946-1948, Czechoslovak Coup of 1948, and fall of China in the end of 1949, the Americans became sufficiently freaked out by the spread of Communism to pay closer attention to Korea.
Anyways, North Korea would have a population about a third smaller than OTL by the start of the Korean War. But it's also worth accounting for how OTL in the Korean War there were ~603,000 South Korean Soldiers and ~267,000 North Korean soldiers. South Korean soldiers were mostly trained and equipped for counter-insurgency operations, not formal warfare. Some 8,000 South Korean soldiers and police died from 1948 to 1950 in the insurgency operations and undeclared border conflict between the two Koreas. But here there could be a bigger disparity (~190,000 North Koreans against ~680,000 South Koreans?) and the additional territory for the South (and less wealth/resources to pull from in the north) could mean that less North Korean assistance gets to insurgents in the South. There also were between 50,000 and 70,000 PLA veterans in North Korea at the start of the Korean War (many of whom were Koreans who were either in exile from Japanese Korea or from the Gando region). And it's worth noting that while the Americans were primarily training and advising the South, the Soviets were arming the North. So the North was definitely better qualitatively, and I suspect that still would be the case.