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WI: Viceroy Hardinge assassinated in Dec 1912?

SinghSong

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The 'Delhi Conspiracy', also known as the Delhi-Lahore Conspiracy, was hatched by underground Indian revolutionaries in both Bengal and the Punjab, supported by Indian expatriates, and headed by Rash Behari Bose, with this conspiracy culminating in the attempted assassination of the then-Viceroy of India, Lord Hardinge, on 23 December 1912, when a home-made bomb (made by Anushilan Samiti, and thrown by Basanta Kumar Biswas), was thrown into the Viceroy's howdah by the then 17yo Basanta Kumar Biswas, as Hardinge's ceremonial procession (to commemorate the British Raj transferring its capital from Kolkata to New Delhi) was moving through the Chandni Chowk suburb of Delhi. IOTL, the Viceroy, Lord Hardinge, was fortunate enough to escape with only flesh wounds from the shrapnel, across his back and shoulders; the Vicerine, Lady Hardinge, escaped entirely unscathed. The attendants who'd been standing behind them both, though, holding their parasols, were respectively killed instantly and severely wounded, with a boy in the surrounding crowd also being killed by the exploding bomb, and several onlookers also injured.

In the aftermath, a reward of Rs.10,000 (approximately $3,300, or $100k in today's money) was announced for the arrest of the bomb thrower, since the identity of the assassin was not immediately known to Government agencies. An investigation ensued, leading to the Delhi Conspiracy trial, wherein cases were filed against Lala Hanumant Sahai, Basanta Kumar Biswas, Bhai Balmukund, Amir Chand and Awadh Behari. On 5 October, 1914 Lala Hanumant Sahai was sentenced to life imprisonment in the Andaman Islands, and the other four were sentenced to death for their roles in the conspiracy. Concerted efforts were made to destroy the Bengali and Punjabi revolutionary underground, which came under intense pressure for some time, and was forced to primarily move its operations overseas (with the Ghadar Party's foundation being an example of this). Rash Behari Bose, identified as the leader of the attempt to assassinate the Viceroy of the British Raj, successfully evaded capture for nearly three years, having been involved in the Ghadar Conspiracy before it was uncovered, before fleeing to Japan in 1915, where he saw out the rest of his days, becoming a Japanese national from 1923 onwards, and dying in January 1945.

So, then- what if the throw had been more accurate, and as a result, the Viceroy and Vicerine were the ones killed and severely wounded respectively? As Viceroy, Lord Hardinge's tenure, after this POD, included an improvement of relations between the British administration and the nationalists, as a consequence of the implementation of the Morley-Minto reforms of 1909, and of Hardinge's own admiration for Mohandas Gandhi and criticism of the South African government's anti-Indian immigration policies. These improved colonial relationships allowed Britain to deploy nearly all of the British troops in India as well as many native Indian troops, to areas outside India during WW1, particularly in the Mesopotamian campaign. And Hardinge's policies IOTL also proved instrumental in thwarting the efforts of the 'Hindu–German Conspiracy', by these expatriated Indian nationalist groups to create a Pan-Indian rebellion against the British Empire during World War I (with extensive support from the German Foreign Office, the German consulate in San Francisco, and some support from Ottoman Turkey and the Irish republican movement).

If Hardinge were successfully assassinated by this attack in December 1912, who'd have succeeded him? How much more of an authoritarian 'heavy hand' might his successor have be obligated to take, to try and avoid sharing the same fate? In turn, what might the Indian nationalists' reaction to this have been; how much more tumultuous and militant might British rule in India have been during WW1, and how much would this have diminished the strength of the Triple Entente's forces- enough to alter the outcome of WW1 entirely? And both David Lloyd George and Winston Churchill had privately expressed admiration for Dhingra's assassination of Curzon Willie, then the aide-de-Camp to the Secretary of State for India, a few years earlier (in 1909); with Churchill reportedly having called Dhingra's statement "[t]he Finest ever made in the name of Patriotism". Might it actually be conceivably possible, in this ATL, for Winston Churchill to be sufficiently swayed to actually support Indian independence...?
 
The King, Churchill, and the Northcliffe press all favoured Kitchener as successor to Hardinge before the war OTL. That would probably make sense politically ATL, as it would demonstrate that the government was taking control of the situation by appointing someone of K’s reputation. Repression along the lines of the Rowlatt Act and mass arrests would follow. The response of the nationalist movement would probably be less unanimous and weaker than 1918 - 1919 OTL, there isn’t the same socio-economic pressure and the Liberals/Extremists are very much divided. Gandhi and non cooperation would not be a factor this early. Bengal and the Punjab would likely erupt in severe violence.

Another consideration would be the impact on domestic politics and the accusation that the Liberals, alongside Irish Home Rule, are presiding over the disintegration of the Empire.
 
Rowlatt Act-style legislation being passed on the eve of World War I would definitely put the Britishers in an awkward position. I think the Moderate-Extremist divide would be papered over for a time, with them trying to push a united front against the draconian legislation.

Absent the experience of the Indian Home Rule League’s mobilization during World War I and the charismatic leadership of Gandhi, the response is definitely going to be weaker - but there’s still bound to be a response. I believe Tilak was imprisoned in Mandalay at this point, so I suspect you’d see Annie Besant lead the national movement’s response. And while the mass mobilization of protests that marked the non-cooperation movement would hardly happen here, there’d still be quite a bit of it (even without Gandhi, Besant was able to mobilize many protests far and wide under the Home Rule banner during World War I). From there, it’s very possible you get the British army slaughtering protestors, and OTL shows just how much that would radicalize nationalists.

And again, this is all happening before World War I. Montagu’s half-assed promise of self-rule “eventually” is going to happen earlier here in order to make it easier to recruit soldiers, but with a national movement trusting him much less. The physical-force nationalism of the likes of the Ghadar Party is likely to have many more adherents here, with an Indo-German Conspiracy more likely to amount to a serious threat for the British.
 
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