WI: Shay’s Rebellion succeeded

[AndrewH]

Alright, so: Shay’s Rebellion has been a particular point of fascination for me for quite some time now, but I’ve never seen it addressed in-depth in the AH community, so I figured I might as well ask about it.

In 1787, a group of around a thousand-and-a-half citizens marched on Springfield, Massachusetts in protest of merchants suddenly demanding hard currency instead of the more common barter system that had sprung up during the Revolutionary War. Pressed by foreign creditors who had loaned money during the war and now wanted their money back, these merchants demanded hard currency to pay off their debts quicker, and in response, a bunch of poor, rightfully pissed veterans rose up in response. Led by Daniel Shays, who had led efforts to petition the Massachusetts legislature to do somethig and had been rabble-rousing for a few months now, got fed up and led the aforementioned 1,500 people to the Springfield armory only to be met with an armed militia led by local commander William Shepard. Shepard fired grapeshot into the crowd, and the rest was history. The ramshackle crowd quickly dispersed, the rebellion failed, and Shays himself died in obscurity.

But, let’s say that Shepard hesitates to fire the cannons, the crowd overwhelms his militia, and they take the armory with no bloodshed, an admittedly big ask. Then they march on Boston, and overthrow the state government.

Asides from paper money emissions and reversing foreclosures set out on veterans and poor farmers, what could Shay and his motley crew get up to if they succeeded in their revolt?

 

[Japhy]

I'll put aside the question of if they can make it to Boston and run the table but.

Basically the Rebellion will be a disaster in victory. The switch the currency had to happen, and if it didn't the US economy was going to fall apart, and in fact has been teetering towards that way. In a best case scenario I'd say that amnesty for the revolt and the debts would follow but there's still going to be the currency crunch.

Generally people who were in the rebellion or looked partly favorably on it tended more towards Anti Federalist politics so that makes things very interesting. The rebellion would have to be ratified in their views by elections, and if elections do occur it becomes very hard for anyone else in the country at the time to maintain opposition to the new regime. Which is basically an odd little way of saying though that constitutional reform is still going to be a big thing. Even if the whole thing ends with a compromise government in Massachusetts, which I'd say is the most likely option it becomes very interesting to consider what happens if the what-would-be Anti-Federalists come to Philadelphia with stronger footing thanks to having literally won a revolt. Shay might even be a delegate but I wouldn't expect him to be particularly influential.

Obviously though there is a very low probability chance this pushes towards an agrarian minded social revolution if it gives folks in other states ideas.