WI: Mussolini successfully escapes to Switzerland

[Coiler]

First, obviously it has no immediate effect on the soon-to-be concluded World War II. But I'm curious what (however minor) effects there'd be if Mussolini did succeed in escaping to Switzerland instead of getting caught and killed?

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Would the Allies not demand his extradition from Switzerland to stand trial at Nuremberg?

 

[Persephone]

"And over here is Mister Mussonili, who's standing as a National Sashist candidate."

 

[Yokai Man]

It would cause a big diplomatic scandal to say the least. Switzerland’s government might find themselves isolated if they don’t bring him to the Allies to stand trial.

 

[Coiler]

Would the Allies not demand his extradition from Switzerland to stand trial at Nuremberg?

This is far and away the most possible outcome. Neutrality becomes irrelevant (if that's the right word) after V-E day, the Allies will ferociously demand that he be handed over, and the Swiss have nothing to gain by keeping him.

Any chance he'd be stopped from crossing if possible by the Swiss/immediately be handed back before the war formally ended?

 

[Yokai Man]

The SVV might help him however in some way and force the Swiss government to actually deal somehow with this powerful fascist group that influences government policies and has numerous high ranking officers as its members,leading to a earlier downfall for the party.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Any chance he'd be stopped from crossing if possible by the Swiss/immediately be handed back before the war formally ended?

Not sure about this. It's also possible the Italians will want to put him on trial, too.

Could get messy.

 

[Torten]

Would the Allies not demand his extradition from Switzerland to stand trial at Nuremberg?

More likely he would be tried in Italy, probably by the Italians under British and American supervision.

 

[History Learner]

Would the Allies not demand his extradition from Switzerland to stand trial at Nuremberg?

Franco got away with protecting Leon Degrelle, so it depends on internal Swiss politics.

 

[Ricardolindo]

First, obviously it has no immediate effect on the soon-to-be concluded World War II. But I'm curious what (however minor) effects there'd be if Mussolini did succeed in escaping to Switzerland instead of getting caught and killed?

Mussolini's plan after arriving in Switzerland was to board a plane for Spain.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Franco got away with protecting Leon Degrelle, so it depends on internal Swiss politics.

Leon Degrelle was just an SS-Standartenführer and didn't declare war on Britain or France, though. Franco's economy is dependant on the US after WW2.

Mussolini's plan after arriving in Switzerland was to board a plane for Spain.

That might have been the last thing he ever did.

 

[History Learner]

Leon Degrelle was just an SS-Standartenführer and didn't declare war on Britain or France, though. Franco's economy is dependant on the
US after WW2.

Franco maintained a policy of autarky until 1956 and the U.S. didn't turn on the aid spigots until 1952. Outside of direct military force, which both the U.S. and UK shot down in 1945 when Stalin proposed dealing with Franco permanently, they don't really have much leverage over Spain. Later on, the Cold War will be truly going full force and the presence of Mussolini will be less of an issue, given the Second Red Scare, Korea, etc...

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Franco maintained a policy of autarky until 1956.

So, who is Spain going to buy gasoline from, then?

 

[ShortsBelfast]

So, who is Spain going to buy gasoline from, then?

Callouste Gulbenkian of course!

 

[History Learner]

So, who is Spain going to buy gasoline from, then?

I doubt the U.S. would go that far, given they didn't shut off oil supplies even as Franco was turning over intelligence to the Germans, had the Blue Division in Russia and was the supplier of Germany's Tungsten.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

I doubt the U.S. would go that far

Given the amount of Allied airspace Benny would have to fly through to get to Spain, I doubt he'd get that far, either.

 

[History Learner]

Given the amount of Allied airspace Benny would have to fly through to get to Spain, I doubt he'd get that far, either.

An extremely fair point, although it's worth noting Leon Degrelle made it to Spain all the way from Norway, even flying through the Channel. Absolutely insane how they managed that, in 1945.

 

[Charles EP M.]

The three options seem to be:

a) The Swiss have to take him into custody "for his own protection" and hand him over to the Allies after a token protest, leading to The Trial Of Mussolini

b) He gets onto a plane to Spain which is intercepted

c) He makes it to Spain, and Spain is leaned on to hand him over to the Allies, which Franco does after a token protest

The least likely but most interesting would be if Franco protests too much and the Western Allies open a Spanish front, which completely changes Spanish history from '45 onwards

 

[tukarambhakt]

Callouste Gulbenkian of course!

A philantrophist through and through.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

The least likely but most interesting would be if Franco protests too much and the Western Allies open a Spanish front, which completely changes Spanish history from '45 onwards

Even full-scale sanctions from the Allies would bring a Benny-harbouring Franco regime to an end sooner than OTL.

The creaking Spanish economy would topple over, and a "you-can-have-Mussolini" faction of the army would send Franco into one or another form of 'retirement'.