WI: Lazare Hoche lives?

[Christian]

This is something that I've thought of before, and it does interest me in what could have happened had Hoche lived. Reading up on Hoche, lots of people speculate that he would've been the perfect sword Sieyes was looking for as he did show that he wasn't afraid to get his hands dirty during the Coup of Fructidor (Though he wasn't really all that successful).

What would you guys think would've happened had Hoche lived past his expiration date? Would he have been happy with Sieyes' rather complicated plan for a constitution? Would he have done as good of a job as Napoleon did in winning the War of the Second Coalition?

 

[Cevolian]

This is something that I've thought of before, and it does interest me in what could have happened had Hoche lived. Reading up on Hoche, lots of people speculate that he would've been the perfect sword Sieyes was looking for as he did show that he wasn't afraid to get his hands dirty during the Coup of Fructidor (Though he wasn't really all that successful).

What would you guys think would've happened had Hoche lived past his expiration date? Would he have been happy with Sieyes' rather complicated plan for a constitution? Would he have done as good of a job as Napoleon did in winning the War of the Second Coalition?

I think the problem is always that Sieyès’ plans were never going to be acceptable to the kind of general willing to lead his coup. At a squint I could see Joubert being your man if you want Sieyès’ plans preserved, but I think someone like Hoche has a fairly good chance of seizing power like Napoleon. From there I really don’t know what he might do - I suspect not proclaim himself Emperor, but then I think we wouldn’t expect that of Napoleon either had he not been the leader of the Brumairians, so I’m not sure we can really say. Then it’s a case really of how Hoche prosecutes the war, and again I’m really not sure you can say with any detail what he’d have done. Alternate Brumaires are great because they essentially give you a blank canvas to play around with all the different ways it could have gone (one I’m really interested in at the moment is if Roederer had become one of the Consuls), but it’s also frustrating, because anything could have happened.

 

[Creekmench]

IMO, if there's a Hochean war I think he would be more willing to set up more Sister Republics across Europe, maybe if he pulls an Augustus like centralizing power to himself while maintaining a Republic would be interesting. Perhaps, rather than trying to re-enslave the Haitians, Hoche would be willing to collaborate with them which would have interesting effects on the Caribbean and the American South. That's just a likely guess though.

 

[Gary Oswald]

Perhaps, rather than trying to re-enslave the Haitians, Hoche would be willing to collaborate with them which would have interesting effects on the Caribbean and the American South. That's just a likely guess though.

I think as long as there's a European peace long enough for French eyes to turn to haiti, some kind of reckoning is inevitable. It doesn't have to be as bad as what happened but the status quo was obviously fraying because the French were sold a lie by Sonthonax and Louverture was burning through good will.

If there's no peace in Europe obviously this can be ignored but war can't continue indefinitely.

 

[Aznavour]

Satellite sister republics from Berlin to Saint Domingue are an interesting possibility, although in the end without a thorough understanding of how men like Hoche thought and to which degree exterior circumstances forced decisions upon them we’re doing either guesswork or choosing what feels coolest.

Could Hoche be Dictator for Life or follow Sulla’s path? Crown himself king or perhaps invite an exiled prince as a compromise to end decades of war? And so on and so forth...

Haiti is interesting because lots of people blame Josephines’s influence on Napoleon, although there doesn’t seem to be any definite evidence beside scapegoating the Empress. The cynical part of me leads me to think some sort of showdown or betrayal would have eventually occurred, although perhaps under different circumstances.

 

[Gary Oswald]

Haiti is interesting because lots of people blame Josephines’s influence on Napoleon, although there doesn’t seem to be any definite evidence beside scapegoating the Empress. The cynical part of me leads me to think some sort of showdown or betrayal would have eventually occurred, although perhaps under different circumstances.

Josephine was undoubtedly a voice for the plantation lobby and when Napoleon was torn as he was over how to deal with Haiti, (he wrote two letters to Louverture, one confirming his decisions and voicing his support and one arresting him for them) any voice one way or another might have been decisive. Certainly in exile, Napoleon made much of having made the wrong choice here which indicates that it wasn't inconceivable for him to do otherwise.

On the other hand, Napoleon only seems to have considered peace with Louverture as a backup plan if the british wouldn't cooperate and in his letters to Talleyrand he himself says that the economic issues were secondary to removing Louverture as an example so his other generals wouldn't act too independent. In which case its when Louverture write his own constitution that is the moment of no return. Though again that was a reaction to the plantation lobby rising in prominence so without Josephine that might be delayed just because Haiti is less spooked.

I share your cynicism on this lasting in the medium to long term but the specific personalities are volatile enough that short term things can be delayed.

 

[Cevolian]

Satellite sister republics from Berlin to Saint Domingue are an interesting possibility, although in the end without a thorough understanding of how men like Hoche thought and to which degree exterior circumstances forced decisions upon them we’re doing either guesswork or choosing what feels coolest.

Could Hoche be Dictator for Life or follow Sulla’s path? Crown himself king or perhaps invite an exiled prince as a compromise to end decades of war? And so on and so forth...

Haiti is interesting because lots of people blame Josephines’s influence on Napoleon, although there doesn’t seem to be any definite evidence beside scapegoating the Empress. The cynical part of me leads me to think some sort of showdown or betrayal would have eventually occurred, although perhaps under different circumstances.

Fwiw there probably won’t be a sister republic in Prussia, but maybe a sister monarchy. In the revolutionary plan for a perpetual peace Prussia is pretty vital, but from what I’ve read of the (lengthy and tedious) diplomatic correspondence between Paris and her Berlin ambassadors this was mainly to be achieved by conversion to France’s cause rather than coercion. Largely because Prussia was seen as an ‘enlightened’ state (partly thanks to Kant, but also thanks to the reception of French ideas by thinkers like Fichte and some royal ministers), she was seen as a very real potential partner to a French hegemony without having to be induced into republicanism.

With regards to inviting a King, that was certainly one theory for what the anti-Directory faction was planning (though usually as some kind of ‘Republican monarch’ rather than a King per se). The usual candidates were, as far as I understand it the Duke of Brunswick or the King of Prussia’s younger brother.