Let's say that the pivotal twenty-man Travancorean ambush in the Battle of the Nedumkotta, led by Vaikom Padmanabha Pillai, is thwarted ITTL- instead of successfully killing Tipu Sultan's army chief Meer Qamaruddin Khan in the ambush by a group of twenty Travancoreans, and inflicting lasting injury on Tipu Sultan himself, as well as capturing the sword, the palanquin, the dagger, the ring and many other personal effects of Tipu Sultan, to be presented triumphantly to the ruler of Travancore as happened IOTL, Vaikom Padmanabha Pillai and the other 19 reserve soldiers from the Nandyat Kalari are spotted, engaged and killed before they get the chance to ambush the Mysorean army leadership.
As such, TTL's Battle of the Nedumkotta results in a swift, hard-fought victory for the Mysoreans, who breach the Nedumkotta in early January 1790, more than three months earlier than IOTL, and subsequently advance across Travancore with their full invasion force. With the Governor of Madras John Holland choosing to engage in negotiations with Tipu rather than mobilizing the military (on account of his own vested financial interests as the primary creditor of the Nawabs of Arcot, and the knowledge that his primary source of earnings would be suspended in the event of war with Mysore), leaving the Company's troops as passive spectators, Travancore is forced to surrender and become a tributary state of Mysore, bringing the conflict to an end and completing the Mysorean conquest of Kerala, in April 1790; before either Charles Cornwallis or General William Medows can relieve Holland of his command, and before the British East India Company can declare war on Mysore (which they only did in May 1790 IOTL).
What happens next ITTL? Is Holland still ousted from his post by either Cornwallis or Medows? Does it follow that the British would still declare war on Mysore over the invasion of Travancore, and start a Third Anglo-Mysore War, regardless of Tipu Sultan having already achieved victory? If so, then would the Nizam of Hyderabad and the Marathas still support the British in the campaign? And if not, then how much stronger might Mysore's position be by the time a Third Anglo-Mysore War broke out (if it ever did)? How much greater might the likelihood of Mysore retaining its independence, and dominance over Southern India, have been as a result?
As such, TTL's Battle of the Nedumkotta results in a swift, hard-fought victory for the Mysoreans, who breach the Nedumkotta in early January 1790, more than three months earlier than IOTL, and subsequently advance across Travancore with their full invasion force. With the Governor of Madras John Holland choosing to engage in negotiations with Tipu rather than mobilizing the military (on account of his own vested financial interests as the primary creditor of the Nawabs of Arcot, and the knowledge that his primary source of earnings would be suspended in the event of war with Mysore), leaving the Company's troops as passive spectators, Travancore is forced to surrender and become a tributary state of Mysore, bringing the conflict to an end and completing the Mysorean conquest of Kerala, in April 1790; before either Charles Cornwallis or General William Medows can relieve Holland of his command, and before the British East India Company can declare war on Mysore (which they only did in May 1790 IOTL).
What happens next ITTL? Is Holland still ousted from his post by either Cornwallis or Medows? Does it follow that the British would still declare war on Mysore over the invasion of Travancore, and start a Third Anglo-Mysore War, regardless of Tipu Sultan having already achieved victory? If so, then would the Nizam of Hyderabad and the Marathas still support the British in the campaign? And if not, then how much stronger might Mysore's position be by the time a Third Anglo-Mysore War broke out (if it ever did)? How much greater might the likelihood of Mysore retaining its independence, and dominance over Southern India, have been as a result?