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WI: Italy remains neutral during World War 2 - impact of a "Fascist bloc" during the Cold War?

lerk

Well-known member
Suppose Italy chooses to remain neutral during World War 2. The war goes as normal, albeit with a few differences and probably ends sooner, but overall the Germans are defeated and Europe is split. I imagine here that much more of Europe is under Western control - perhaps we will see the US instead of USSR flag go over the Reichstag - because there is no Italian front to distract them. If Italy chooses to align itself with Spain, Portugal, and perhaps as time goes on with Gaullist France and maybe even Israel and a more anti-US UK after an alt-Suez Crisis, what would be the impact on the Cold War because of this?
 
For the record a three-way Cold War isn't hard to imagine. This was and probably still is the case in the Middle East: A pro-Iran anti-US bloc consisting of Iran, Iraqi militias, Syria, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. A pro-US bloc consisting of Israel, the Gulf States, Hadi government in Yemen, Egypt, Sudan, and Haftar's militia in Libya. And an Brotherhood bloc consisting of Turkey, Qatar, the FSA, and the internationally recognized Libyan government.

I can imagine that this fascist bloc would gradually be more anti-US as the US tries to court third world nationalists to be anti-Communist, and of course the fascists don't really care about communism or not they just want to maintain their empires. Furthermore, as I said the Communist bloc in Europe would be a lot less powerful meaning that the threat of Communism simply isn't there. What might be interesting is if most of the Nazis that were recruited via Paperclip end up going to Italy, Spain, etc. seeing them as more reliable protectors than the West. None of the countries will have the capability to land a man on the moon but with their expertise it may make them somewhat more equal with the West. Of course, the colonial wars will be a drain and may be what ends up breaking it apart, perhaps by around the 1970s.

0000tc3p
 
I think a block of outright fascist states with their own seperate policy is going to be massively disruptive to the Cold War, as it's no longer - for the West - just Capitalist Democracy VS Communism, there's now two hostile forces and that would change the rhetoric used, the way people think about it, the fellow travellers domestically, what tactics are used and where etc for the Western countries. And both it and the communist block will at some point be thinking "which of these two do I prefer being near me, which can I work with better, the capitalists/communists or the fascists?"

(And a fascist block throughout the Cold War that's not just catholic-majority nations at the centre but has the Vatican stuck in it probably has an impact on catholics worldwide and how they're viewed.)
 
I for one think that Mussolini would be slowly accepted as a de facto American ally in the manner that Franco's Spain was.

The Italian fascists wanted Italy to be militarily independent. I'm not sure whether Fascist Italy would be very receptive to an alliance. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't join NATO.
However, Mussolini's position was never as secure as that of Franco and the King may get rid of him if he doesn't like his actions in the Cold War.
 
I think a block of outright fascist states with their own seperate policy is going to be massively disruptive to the Cold War, as it's no longer - for the West - just Capitalist Democracy VS Communism, there's now two hostile forces and that would change the rhetoric used, the way people think about it, the fellow travellers domestically, what tactics are used and where etc for the Western countries. And both it and the communist block will at some point be thinking "which of these two do I prefer being near me, which can I work with better, the capitalists/communists or the fascists?"

(And a fascist block throughout the Cold War that's not just catholic-majority nations at the centre but has the Vatican stuck in it probably has an impact on catholics worldwide and how they're viewed.)

Yeah this Vatican is definitely going to crack down on liberation theology and perhaps develop links to operation condor?
 
I think Italy's 'Fascist' bloc is likely to end up as a pariah, at least for the first few years after the war. Spain, and possibly any remaining autocratic states in the Balkans which managed to remain neutral throughout the war might fall into their sphere of influence. They will also end up sheltering lots of medium level German war criminals.

I can't see the Soviet Union wanting much to do with Italy, beyond funding the left wing resistance - any pre war relations were mainly a business transaction anyway.

As the Cold War develops, NATO and the USA would probably start seeing the Italians as a potential ally, especially if they have a sphere of influence in the Balkans. If nothing else, there might be a warming in relations.

The Italians will probably try and develop Nuclear Weapons as well, and they might end up becoming an arms suppliers of choice to any country which doesn't get on with either bloc or wants to maintain 'neutrality.'

So Sweden, Switzerland and a few Latin American countries.
 
Depends on how neutral it is really and if it can resist fucking about in the balkans (won’t that be fun - of course it could go courting Stalin which is always going to go well)
 
A neutral fascist state is plausible - it happened with Spain - but he's correct that the Italian fascists had a big list of stuff they wanted and from their POV this is the best time to try it because Hitler's winning. So a neutral Italy would most likely be one that isn't as sure where this war's going, something's happened to make them think it's not a sure bet.
 
An Italy that actually fights against Hitler is probably a more realistic way to achieve such a three way cold war. Onkel Willie had a decent TL on the other side, which detailed such a scenario.
 
An Italy that actually fights against Hitler is probably a more realistic way to achieve such a three way cold war. Onkel Willie had a decent TL on the other side, which detailed such a scenario.

I don't think it's realistic even in such a scenario. Italy simply doesn't have the resources to create such a bloc. Also, note that if Italy did not join the Axis, it would almost certainly have joined the Allies in 1944.
 
The big question in regards to *liberalization is to what extent social liberalism acts as an inevitable force. Francoist Spain fell in part due to media exposure of the younger generations to Anglo-American liberal democracy and the King willing to support democratization.

Presuming a *fascist block of sorts (not unlike the Footprints of Mussolini but with less whitewashing), can they consistently enforce far-right social policy in the 21st century, not unlike the Saudis, Iran or Hungary?
 
The big question in regards to *liberalization is to what extent social liberalism acts as an inevitable force. Francoist Spain fell in part due to media exposure of the younger generations to Anglo-American liberal democracy and the King willing to support democratization.

Presuming a *fascist block of sorts (not unlike the Footprints of Mussolini but with less whitewashing), can they consistently enforce far-right social policy in the 21st century, not unlike the Saudis, Iran or Hungary?

As I already said, I don't consider such a bloc plausible. Regardless, Mussolini's position was weaker than Franco's, he was older and his health was worse. There was already talk of his successor before World War II. I don't think he would have lasted very long after the war.
 
Presuming a *fascist block of sorts (not unlike the Footprints of Mussolini but with less whitewashing), can they consistently enforce far-right social policy in the 21st century, not unlike the Saudis, Iran or Hungary?

I'd think not like the Saudis or Iran, both extremely right wing but also stretching itself as a regional player in other countries - it wouldn't have the resources (like Saudi's oil) to get away with it and it would have too many liberalised democracies on its borders - but it could probably be like a bigger Hungary, a country Europe accepts as "ah it's just Italy's funny little ways, anyway it's an internal matter". Full-on fascism probably dropped away over time but with a lot of legacies in the type of organisations, the architecture, the culture etc.

"Why do you guys insist on saying the Youth of the Lictor is fascistic? It's just a national after-school society and summer camp, it's just about teaching kids to do sports and develop team spirit. Sometimes a black shirt's just a shirt that's black."
 
I'd think not like the Saudis or Iran, both extremely right wing but also stretching itself as a regional player in other countries - it wouldn't have the resources (like Saudi's oil) to get away with it and it would have too many liberalised democracies on its borders - but it could probably be like a bigger Hungary, a country Europe accepts as "ah it's just Italy's funny little ways, anyway it's an internal matter". Full-on fascism probably dropped away over time but with a lot of legacies in the type of organisations, the architecture, the culture etc.

"Why do you guys insist on saying the Youth of the Lictor is fascistic? It's just a national after-school society and summer camp, it's just about teaching kids to do sports and develop team spirit. Sometimes a black shirt's just a shirt that's black."
TTL's Italy is probably also doing what's in the other thread and holding onto Libya (& its oil), so that covers at least one issue.
 
A neutral fascist state is plausible - it happened with Spain - but he's correct that the Italian fascists had a big list of stuff they wanted and from their POV this is the best time to try it because Hitler's winning. So a neutral Italy would most likely be one that isn't as sure where this war's going, something's happened to make them think it's not a sure bet.
slower battle of france, then but that would butterfly too much?
 
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