WI: Galloway wins Batley and Spen

[CTTeller]

I expected the odious ratbag to get somewhere around the ballpark of 10-15% tops in the 21 Batley and Spen by-election, and was rather horrified when he vastly outdid what I expected him to do. After Labour thankfully won, the Labour server brought to my attention the fact that Unite’s internal polling apparently had Labour third behind Galloway and the Conservatives in first for most of the campaign, which I heard from someone I trust. I would like to think, and this is assuming their polling was accurate, that this changed following that disgusting incident involving Galloway supporters chasing Leadbeater and her supporters, following a long, race baiting campaign. That polling leads me to think that Galloway winning was unfortunately more likely to win than some of us thought. I think it’s fair to say that Leadbeater and her team pretty much singlehandedly won this by-election, so her not contesting the selection may need to be a prerequisite.

Perhaps that incident never occurs. For the sake of this counterfactual, let’s say Galloway comes first, with the Conservatives second and Labour third. This has very unpleasant consequences, especially unpleasant when the Russian invasion of Ukraine comes around 7 months later. He would I hope be condemned in parliament, as he was by figures in our timeline.

So, where do things go from here?

 

[Omund the Wooden-Leg]

You don't like him, then?

 

[iupius]

Given the ugly mood in the party after Hartlepool, I think it's pretty clear that a defeat in Batley - let alone a third place finish - would spell the end of Starmer's leadership. At the very least he faces a bruising challenge from Angela Rayner over the summer.

 

[Charles EP M.]

A Starmer leadership challenge seems inevitable (even if Georgey doesn't win but the Tories do thanks to vote splits). Yet another loss and to HIM, and talk of "we are losing the working class/Muslim votes".

Expect the Gee Gee to loudly turn up in every LGBT related debate anywhere using his MP cred. Constant yelling of Your Kids bring taught about "AAAAANAL SEXXX!" EDIT: maybe him being unpleasant would actually undermine phobia, that'd be nice.

 

[allthepresidentsmen]

- Starmer is out, that’s almost certainly a given. He might not lose a leadership challenge, but eventually the pressure to leave will be overwhelming, and he’ll be out. Sir Keir — assuming everything after that proceeds more-or-less as IRL — becomes a big “what if” for althistorians in the 2030s.
- As @Charles EP M. said, it’s possible that Galloway’s BS about LGBTQ+ issues backfires on the Terfs and whatnot. Maybe this could yield a different Tory leader after BoJo quits.
- Considering Galloway’s Russian bootlicking, it could dissuade Corbyn from outright telling the U.K. to stop sending weapons to Ukraine. Or Labour could take the chance to fully jettison him and the Young Labour leaders. Depends on Starmer’s replacement — if it’s someone like Streeting, highly likely that Jezza gets the boot (assuming he still signs the Stop The War letter, calls for an end to Ukraine aid, etc). If it’s Nandy or Rayner, less likely, but circumstances could force their hand. Speaking of:
- who replaces Keir? The final lineup of candidates would likely include Rayner, Streeting, Long-Bailey, and a wildcard. Maybe Miliband makes a comeback? Other interesting choices for leader include Sadiq Khan and Burnham.

 

[Charles EP M.]

At the time, a lot of disgruntled Labour members on the left were hoping Rayner stood up if Starmer fell and there wasn't (IIRC) the same focus on a specific centre-left or Labour right figure, those guys were still happening for Starmer. So Rayner is definitely going to become a frontrunner and possibly wins if the Labour-let all line up. (Khan and Burnman are still mayoring around here, they may lament missing their shot at becoming party leader)

 

[Nyvis]

More than who can technically replace Starmer, my question is what's their plan. With Labour taking that loss, I don't think the "wait and let them fail" approach is going to be acceptable. People will want to know the candidates' position on what the party should have done differently to avoid that loss.