WI: Eisenhower declines to run in ‘56

[CanadianTory]

I’ve recently been doing some reading on the Eisenhower Presidency and have been stuck thinking about the ramifications of Ike declining to seek re-election in the fallout from his heart attack.

So let’s say Ike doesn’t rebound quite so we’ll as per OTL, effectively remains an invalid and despite all the praises and desperate pleas from his cabinet he opts to retire after four years. In my mind the obvious frontrunner would be Vice President Nixon, who had gained elevated stature after having stepped in for Ike in the immediate aftermath of the latter’s heart troubles. He’ll likely get a challenge from Senator Bill Knowland on the right and Harold Stassen on the left, but as the de facto incumbent and lack of a credible alternative I could see Ike and the Eastern establishment reluctantly rallying behind a Dick Nixon candidacy.

As for the Democrats, without a popular President like Eisenhower in the race, more names are likely to run. A fun one I saw tossed around was everybody’s favourite Texan, Senator Lyndon B. Johnson. Imagine Nixon having to face off against a Johnson/Kennedy ticket. At this time VPs had trouble getting elected to the top job, and I could imagine that with LBJ on top of the ticket, he’d have little trouble getting elected over the more dour, gloomy Nixon.

But what are y’all’s thoughts on the subject?

 

[Time Enough]

As for the Democrats, without a popular President like Eisenhower in the race, more names are likely to run. A fun one I saw tossed around was everybody’s favourite Texan, Senator Lyndon B. Johnson. Imagine Nixon having to face off against a Johnson/Kennedy ticket. At this time VPs had trouble getting elected to the top job, and I could imagine that with LBJ on top of the ticket, he’d have little trouble getting elected over the more dour, gloomy Nixon.

Johnson could occur if there’s a fixed convention etc. I could see someone like G.Mennan Williams being a Veep Candidate over Kennedy due to the fact that Williams can bring the Northern, Hard Hat voters easier (also I can see the Democratic Establishment getting cold feet over having a Catholic Veep) I guess.

Johnson winning over Nixon, is a strong possibility, as he can be able to take credit for Eisenhower’s popular policies and all that.

 

[CanadianTory]

Johnson could occur if there’s a fixed convention etc. I could see someone like G.Mennan Williams being a Veep Candidate over Kennedy due to the fact that Williams can bring the Northern, Hard Hat voters easier (also I can see the Democratic Establishment getting cold feet over having a Catholic Veep) I guess.

Johnson winning over Nixon, is a strong possibility, as he can be able to take credit for Eisenhower’s popular policies and all that.

Plus when it comes to personality Johnson tower’s over Nixon, both figuratively and literally.

Regarding Williams, his strong support for civil rights and criticism of Johnson might mean going with Kennedy, who will do and say about anything to get on the ticket.

 

[Luke_Starkiller]

A Kefauver vs. Nixon election would be dope

 

[Time Enough]

Regarding Williams, his strong support for civil rights and criticism of Johnson might mean going with Kennedy, who will do and say about anything to get on the ticket.

True, I think Kennedy has the problem that in the Mid 50s the Liberals didn’t trust him as much and he was often away from the Senate due to illness, so I could see Johnson maybe considering other Northerners/Liberals as well (Robert Wagner Jr. seems like someone who could be a good choice for Johnson). It’s entirely possible that Kennedy would be Veep for 1956 before Johnson eventually replaces him with someone else.

A Kefauver vs. Nixon election would be dope

I think Kefauver had the problem that the Democratic Bosses and Machines hated him, meanwhile Johnson could bring the Populism whilst not bringing the other quirks of Kefauver.

 

[Luke_Starkiller]

I think Kefauver had the problem that the Democratic Bosses and Machines hated him, meanwhile Johnson could bring the Populism whilst not bringing the other quirks of Kefauver.

Yeah, that sounds pretty likely.

 

[CanadianTory]

So Vice President Nixon would likely pick someone from the conservative wing to appease those on the right worries he’s nothing more than Eisenhower’s man.

 

[Time Enough]

So Vice President Nixon would likely pick someone from the conservative wing to appease those on the right worries he’s nothing more than Eisenhower’s man.

I was thinking that, can’t be Knowland due to both being from California. I could see John Pyle being a possible choice, Southern, Old Right, Friends with Barry Goldwater etc.

 

[Luke_Starkiller]

So Vice President Nixon would likely pick someone from the conservative wing to appease those on the right worries he’s nothing more than Eisenhower’s man.

Dirksen? He's not in the leadership by then, but he clearly had the ambition and desire to climb up the ladder. Picking him allows Nixon to consolidate strength in the Midwest.

 

[Luke_Starkiller]

I was thinking that, can’t be Knowland due to both being from California. I could see John Pyle being a possible choice, Southern, Old Right, Friends with Barry Goldwater etc.

I can't imagine Ezra Taft Benson loving that pick

 

[CanadianTory]

Nixon/Dirksen seems like a solid ticket.

 

[Luke_Starkiller]

Nixon/Dirksen seems like a solid ticket.

I guess the question after that is who wins? Nixon/Dirksen or Johnson/Kennedy (or something similar like Johnson/Wagner)?

 

[Luke_Starkiller]

IMO this is what the election would look like. 265 is the magic number, and both tickets have a solid chance of winning.

 

[Ricardolindo]

So Vice President Nixon would likely pick someone from the conservative wing to appease those on the right worries he’s nothing more than Eisenhower’s man.

No. The conservatives weren't yet that strong and Nixon was conservative enough for them. If anything, he would pick a more liberal running mate, maybe Lodge.

 

[Time Enough]

No. The conservatives weren't yet that strong and Nixon was conservative enough for them. If anything, he would pick a more liberal running mate, maybe Lodge.

The Conservative’s weren’t that happy with Lodge and if they weren’t strong, Nixon would have to rely on there support in then Senate/Congress, could see Thurston Morton or Robert Anderson be potential Running Mates is a Moderate choice is to be had.

 

[CanadianTory]

No. The conservatives weren't yet that strong and Nixon was conservative enough for them. If anything, he would pick a more liberal running mate, maybe Lodge.

It would certainly help Nixon build up the “experience” argument of the campaign, and Ike was personally a fan of Lodge, and recommended him to Nixon.

Plus Lodge was a shit campaigner and an egomaniac. He’d be great as a VP who helps Nixon lose.

So what we’re looking at is 1960, but with the Dem ticket reversed.

 

[Ricardolindo]

It would certainly help Nixon build up the “experience” argument of the campaign, and Ike was personally a fan of Lodge, and recommended him to Nixon.

Plus Lodge was a shit campaigner and an egomaniac. He’d be great as a VP who helps Nixon lose.

So what we’re looking at is 1960, but with the Dem ticket reversed.

If Nixon nearly won in 1960, though, despite the severe 1958 recession and the mild 1960 one, I doubt he would lose in 1956.

 

[CanadianTory]

If Nixon nearly won in 1960, though, despite the severe 1958 recession and the mild 1960 one, I doubt he would lose in 1956.

Different year and different candidate. Johnson is a charismatic populist with much of the South in his pocket. Nixon is the VP who most Americans don’t know, most Republicans don’t like, and Ike is pretty indifferent.

The campaign that Nixon ran in 1960 was a disaster from start to finish. With four years less experience and four years less the connections and resume, I see LBJ as the frontrunner.

 

[AndrewH]

Different year and different candidate. Johnson is a charismatic populist with much of the South in his pocket. Nixon is the VP who most Americans don’t know, most Republicans don’t like, and Ike is pretty indifferent.

The campaign that Nixon ran in 1960 was a disaster from start to finish. With four years less experience and four years less the connections and resume, I see LBJ as the frontrunner.

Most Republicans liked Nixon though? The reason Ike held on to Nixon as his VP was because he was Nixon’s connection the Republican base, the guy who would connect to the Average Joe GOP voters while Ike could avoid the fray as the above-it-all beloved General.

Sure, Nixon had his baggage but this isn’t ‘68, so the worst is Checkers and a handful of embarrassing rumors about his relationship with the President. Johnson is a skilled campaigner but at the time he is still nominally tied with segregation, would lack much of a base with the successful and growing middle-classes in the West and North outside of maybe the urban machines, obviously no televised debates yet, and Nixon would presumably benefit from an incumbency bump (whether that’s more or less than the actual bump he got in ‘60 is up for debate) and you could argue a rally-around-the-flag effect from the President nearly dying. Nixon has more distinguished credentials on foreign policy, isn’t running against a telegenic and handsome youngster, etc etc

Really seeing people ignore Nixon’s potency as an electoral vehicle in favor of “well if this guy was so-and-so’s running mate well then that means he automatically wins!”

 

[Steve Brinson]

I really can’t see LBJ getting nominated in 1956, for much the same reason that he didn’t get nominated in 1960 OTL - he was not great at actual campaigning outside Texas and believed that his relationships with Senators would carry him over the finish line. Here he doesn’t even have the one qualification he had in 1960, i.e. passing a major civil rights bill.

It’s convergent, but I could honestly see Stevenson getting nominated again here as well, both because there were plenty of Democrats who sincerely liked him and because there weren’t a lot of other obvious choices. Kefauver was a walking blob of scandals, and Harriman is an ivory tower liberal who might have collaborated with the Nazis, so I think the only other OTL candidate with a real shot is Symington? Maybe LeRoy Collins or Frank Clement if you’re looking for a hipstery candidate who could plausibly end up in there as a compromise between Southerners and liberals?

I suspect Nixon probably wins in any case, just because I don't see any Democrat being able to overcome the party's internal contradictions enough to overcome the incumbency effect @AndrewH discussed.