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WI: Decapitation Strategy Succeeds

Oppo

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The LibDems in 2005 famously tried to take out the big figures in the Conservative Party, a strategy that didn't work out too well for them (other than Tim Collins losing his seat). Their lofty goal was to take out Oliver Letwin, David Davis, Theresa May, and Michael Howard, allowing for Kennedy to appear as the true leader of the opposition. Let's wave a magic wand and assume that these four seats flip but the general election is otherwise the same.

First of all, how does the immediate post-election narrative change? On the Tory side, the goodwill Howard got for the party's minor recovery would be greatly overshadowed by criticism of his dog-whistling on immigration. Michael Ancram would serve as an acting leader, which is crucial for the careers of David Cameron and George Osborne. Cameron was boosted in his elevation to the frontbenches by his history working for Howard and Osborne was the third choice for Shadow Chancellor. If you eliminate Osborne and Cameron along with the "decapitated" Tories, the race suddenly becomes a more interesting affair. The race would be between Fox and Clarke, which Fox likely wins due to Clarke's toxicity with the party membership. I don't see Ancram running for the leadership himself (his health issues could put a damper on his tenure regardless). Boris had just resigned from the shadow cabinet a year ago, and he backed Clarke anyway (though having a Tory leader who wanted to impeach Blair would be very interesting).

With the LibDems, I imagine the initial calls for Kennedy to resign don't happen after his risky maneuver pays off. The real question is, can the goodwill over unseating the Tories allow him to move past the alcoholism scandal? With the Labour Party, it's possible Blair delays his retirement, though I don't see that happening. The biggest change is that Brown is convinced to call an election in 2007, which is something that's been explored in the past. With a weaker Tory leader and the LibDems still being met with scandal, he likely gets the majority he wanted.

In the long term, the people in the Tory leadership are going to be very different. What sort of figures could rise with the absence of Letwin, Davis, and May?
 
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lmao i was literally going to ask this question a while ago

Kennedy is probably fucked if he keeps drinking, as far as I could tell from Greg Hurst's Charles Kennedy: A Tragic Flaw, the Libdem higherups were at his throat for a very long time, but I was confused by that chapter anyway, so I might need to give it another look.
 
Cameron and Osborne's rise wasn't as flukey as you're trying to present here. Sure, Howard had a personal connection with Cameron, but they'd both been near the top table of the party for a while and were well-known. (Osborne had been Hague's political secretary; Cameron was a senior factotum under Howard) Both were seen by just about everyone as among the best of the 2001 intake. Particularly in a situation where half the shadow cabinet has gone (Which you do need to wave a magic wand for) Cameron is likely to make it and Osborne stands a good chance of promotion. (He was already there, though in the junior role of shadow chief secretary) Ancram of course is a moderate so wouldn't be averse to promoting them, though Osborne wouldn't be as spectacularly promoted as OTL.

But even if they don't get promoted, it won't be just between Fox and Clarke. Andrew Lansley (Or less likely, David Willetts) would stand as the modernisation candidate, and I suspect someone would take over Davis' support - Andrew Mitchell maybe. Lansley in particular would be widely acceptable and would stand a good chance of being elected.
 
Cameron and Osborne's rise wasn't as flukey as you're trying to present here. Sure, Howard had a personal connection with Cameron, but they'd both been near the top table of the party for a while and were well-known. (Osborne had been Hague's political secretary; Cameron was a senior factotum under Howard) Both were seen by just about everyone as among the best of the 2001 intake. Particularly in a situation where half the shadow cabinet has gone (Which you do need to wave a magic wand for) Cameron is likely to make it and Osborne stands a good chance of promotion. (He was already there, though in the junior role of shadow chief secretary) Ancram of course is a moderate so wouldn't be averse to promoting them, though Osborne wouldn't be as spectacularly promoted as OTL.

But even if they don't get promoted, it won't be just between Fox and Clarke. Andrew Lansley (Or less likely, David Willetts) would stand as the modernisation candidate, and I suspect someone would take over Davis' support - Andrew Mitchell maybe. Lansley in particular would be widely acceptable and would stand a good chance of being elected.
How would Lansley’s leadership be? What ideas would he have for government?
 
How would Lansley’s leadership be? What ideas would he have for government?

Not really sure we can answer that definitively. His career in government OTL suggests nothing good; he was fairly quickly sacked as Health Secretary over a pet project NHS reform which cratered an impressive standing Cameron had built up, at some points overtaking Labour on the issue in polling.

Like many people he was a Thatcherite who later went strongly for modernisation, so he recognised the failings of the party and would try to address them, but honestly he's always given off a kind of lightweight vibe.

Mitchell's an interesting one. A 'hard' Thatcherite originally, had spent some time in the army, unexpectedly lost his seat in '97, later softened and developed a strong and sincere interest in international aid and development issues. In OTL he was Davis' campaign manager, but he might have actually been a better candidate than him.
 
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Kennedy going seems inevitable, but if his risky strategy has actually worked it's probably not going to be the ugly public affair. It'll be a slower shift with quiet words and pressure and "look go out on a high note, man". But that's not going to butterfly away Ming Campbell as interim leader, so he probably still becomes the party leader - and the different circumstances aren't likely to stop him being seen as subpar by the press and members. (It might be worse because he's following a guy who chopped off Tory heads!) What does help him is if Brown decides to have an early election - maybe the recent Tory upsets and Campbell's issues makes him go for it after all - then all the Liberal Democrats have to do is retain their seats/almost all their seats and Campbell sticks around longer. That may mean Clegg is not the party leader after him (as someone else is elevated or looks better for the moment) or Clegg is, but with a few years of frontbench experience.
 
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