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WI: Blair loses the popular vote but is within ten seats of a majority in 2005?

cikka

A Nerd From A 1990's Family Film
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So I was playing around with Electoral Calculus based on an outlier poll from late September 2003, with LAB 31%, CON 32% and LIB 30%.
This came up with Blair within ten seats of a majority as can be seen here: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk...joritySorted&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2005ob

I made a quick map of it, but due to my lack of knowledge on the period in particular beyond a vague knowledge of the sad tale of Charles Kennedy, I was wondering what the denizens of the forum would think would occur. Thanks!

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Alex Richards

A musical Hubble Space Telescope
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Derbyshire
Leaving aside the fact Electoral Calculus isn't that reliable a prediction tool, I think probably a deal with the SNP in this sort of scenario. Them and the SDLP combined with Sinn Fein abstaining gives a workable government in the short term.

Brown probably manages to persuade Blair to go earlier- 2006 perhaps, and I think the new leadership would be very tempted to call a fresh election.
 

AlfieJ

left labour poster on here
Echoing @Alex Richards but going slightly further - there was a lot of quiet hope within the PLP that 2005 would give them enough of a bloody nose either to get Blair out and return to "real" Labour roots - a lost majority and Lib Dems on 80-odd seats would defo do that. I could imagine a scenario where Brown is in conference and a Progressive Alliance is pushed for with the Lib Dems - ironically fulfilling in many ways what Blair had banged on about since the 1990s that the future of the party laying in unifying this old progressive tradition. Whether it would actually happen is a different story. Could raise some interesting question for the Lib Dems over whether to push further left, or try and replace the Tories ?
 

Makemakean

Mr Makemean
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Leaving aside the fact Electoral Calculus isn't that reliable a prediction tool, I think probably a deal with the SNP in this sort of scenario. Them and the SDLP combined with Sinn Fein abstaining gives a workable government in the short term.

Brown probably manages to persuade Blair to go earlier- 2006 perhaps, and I think the new leadership would be very tempted to call a fresh election.
I kind of wonder if a formal deal will really even be necessary. Labour still has more than 100 seats more than the Tories, so this isn't 1974 or even 2010 that we are looking at here. My guess is that Labour will simply continue as a minority government, doing deals on individual bills as they come about.
 

Elektronaut

Opinions from the Student Union
Leaving aside the fact Electoral Calculus isn't that reliable a prediction tool, I think probably a deal with the SNP in this sort of scenario. Them and the SDLP combined with Sinn Fein abstaining gives a workable government in the short term.

Brown probably manages to persuade Blair to go earlier- 2006 perhaps, and I think the new leadership would be very tempted to call a fresh election.
The SNP would make significant demands for any kind of deal with a Westminster government, and in this scenario their reach would excede their grasp on that.

I think in a scenario like this you see either a minority government (the Tories are not a credible alternative government) and Blair's departure before Brown has a crack the following year, or a deal with the Libs. It's not that far off a majority though so I forsee some resistance on that one.
 

Alex Richards

A musical Hubble Space Telescope
Patreon supporter
Published by SLP
Location
Derbyshire
Echoing @Alex Richards but going slightly further - there was a lot of quiet hope within the PLP that 2005 would give them enough of a bloody nose either to get Blair out and return to "real" Labour roots - a lost majority and Lib Dems on 80-odd seats would defo do that. I could imagine a scenario where Brown is in conference and a Progressive Alliance is pushed for with the Lib Dems - ironically fulfilling in many ways what Blair had banged on about since the 1990s that the future of the party laying in unifying this old progressive tradition. Whether it would actually happen is a different story. Could raise some interesting question for the Lib Dems over whether to push further left, or try and replace the Tories ?
2005 and Kennedy and it being clear Labour *could* just deal with the nats means I suspect the mood is a firm 'PR in Westminster, like you spent the 90s talking about' as the price.
 

Nyvis

Token Marxist
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2005 and Kennedy and it being clear Labour *could* just deal with the nats means I suspect the mood is a firm 'PR in Westminster, like you spent the 90s talking about' as the price.
Yeah the libdems would definitely ask for electoral reforms and I doubt Labour is ready to grant that.
 

bd_roberts

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Echoing @Alex Richards but going slightly further - there was a lot of quiet hope within the PLP that 2005 would give them enough of a bloody nose either to get Blair out and return to "real" Labour roots - a lost majority and Lib Dems on 80-odd seats would defo do that. I could imagine a scenario where Brown is in conference and a Progressive Alliance is pushed for with the Lib Dems - ironically fulfilling in many ways what Blair had banged on about since the 1990s that the future of the party laying in unifying this old progressive tradition. Whether it would actually happen is a different story. Could raise some interesting question for the Lib Dems over whether to push further left, or try and replace the Tories ?
Surely if the Lib Dems tried to supplant the Tories, they'd run into an issue of hosting an electoral coalition very much opposed to each other?
 

Charles EP M.

Well-known member
Published by SLP
"Minority government doing deals if & when" and "Blair leaves" are the big ones. Wondering what this does for Iraq? The first election after we went to war and Labour took a huge thumping while the Lib Dems are up, it'd be seen (probably is) a sign the public want out ASAP - can Brown actually do that?
 
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