WI: Beagle Conflict escalates into full-blown war

[Techdread]

The Beagle conflict was a territorial dispute between Argentina and Chile over a series of islands in the Beagle Channel that were possessed & governed by Chile but claimed by Argentina. The dispute reached almost war levels in 1978 when an Argentine invasion was aborted only hours after it began due to papal mediation of all things! The tense peace afterwards didn't end the dispute though and there's been speculation that, just as the Falklands War in 1982, this was an attempt by the Argentine military junta to unify the public towards a longstanding national goal of territorial possession.

Let's assume for a moment that this near-conflict in 1978 still happens and is aborted and over in the UK, Callaghan calls an early election in 1978 and squeaks through on a small minority government. The UK government doesn't then proceed to gut the defence budget nor have its naval presence in the South Atlantic away, thereby not giving the impression that the Falklands are undefended nor uncared for to Buenos Aires.

Tensions remain high across Argentina and public opinion is sharply against the junta. Galtieri decides, with the same logic that brought him success in 1982 against Maggie, to start a war with Pinochet over the Beagle Channel but properly this time. How might this conflict go? I've seen some mention about this that it could become a long, protracted conflict with Chile the ultimate victor in this situation but not much discussion on it.

 

[Ricardolindo]

The Beagle conflict was a territorial dispute between Argentina and Chile over a series of islands in the Beagle Channel that were possessed & governed by Chile but claimed by Argentina. The dispute reached almost war levels in 1978 when an Argentine invasion was aborted only hours after it began due to papal mediation of all things! The tense peace afterwards didn't end the dispute though and there's been speculation that, just as the Falklands War in 1982, this was an attempt by the Argentine military junta to unify the public towards a longstanding national goal of territorial possession.

Let's assume for a moment that this near-conflict in 1978 still happens and is aborted and over in the UK, Callaghan calls an early election in 1978 and squeaks through on a small minority government. The UK government doesn't then proceed to gut the defence budget nor have its naval presence in the South Atlantic away, thereby not giving the impression that the Falklands are undefended nor uncared for to Buenos Aires.

Tensions remain high across Argentina and public opinion is sharply against the junta. Galtieri decides, with the same logic that brought him success in 1982 against Maggie, to start a war with Pinochet over the Beagle Channel but properly this time. How might this conflict go? I've seen some mention about this that it could become a long, protracted conflict with Chile the ultimate victor in this situation but not much discussion on it.

Is it possible Peru and Bolivia would join in order to recover territory lost to Chile in the War of the Pacific?