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WI/AHC: Federal Union of South Africa?

Don’t be like that. I simply think that Apartheid South Africa was so bad that any improvement would be welcome.

This is all you do. @Sulemain is researching this stuff for his graduate degree currently and you disregard him in this. Because this is all you do.

The Segregation era of South Africa was nearly as violent, just as degrading and just as undemocratic for the overwhelming majority of the country. It was barely better if not as bad before 1948 as after. Rhodesia was a hell state where the murder of blacks by white was effectively legal and operated practically under a slavery system. They just had different accents. They were not better then their southern neighbors. Just more outdated.
 
Don’t be like that. I simply think that Apartheid South Africa was so bad that any improvement would be welcome.

The problem with that, in the South African case, is that there are improvements which would have helped South Africa from the beginning, and then there are improvements which would have made apartheid worse, or just as bad without some of the more egregious stuff. As a result, expansionism towards Rhodesia (Northern and Southern) and federalism I would consider two separate things.

First off, before I tackle the OP, the Rhodesia bit must be addressed. Now, before Southern Rhodesia was formed, that area was actually BSAC company territory. The quick way to describe BSAC rule over Rhodesia as a whole, considering it based itself on the East India Company, is that it was absolutely awful if you were an African. As both Northern Rhodesia and Southern Rhodesia developed separate histories under direct colonial rule, their paths somewhat diverged, with Southern Rhodesia in particular aiming for what an American would immediately recognize as a Jim Crow society with the dial turned up. Now, granted, treating Africans as second-class citizens was different from their treatment in South Africa, where both the colonial regime and the Afrikaner leaders treated their African communities much like how the United States, Canada, and Australia treated their indigenous communities (with all the horrors that resulted) and combined that with a very warped interpretation of Kuyper's sphere sovereignty theory to justify their policies. The effect of both, however, was basically the same; even under BSAC rule, plans were already drawn up to shift towards "Native Reserves" similar to Native American reservations in the US and which already existed in South Africa. Apartheid (or, rather, proto-apartheid) was already making its way to the Rhodesias, whether or not the population wanted it.

So expanding South Africa to include the Rhodesias would have no effect on the government's treatment of Africans. In fact, federation would make the treatment of the Rhodesias' African communities even worse (as can be demonstrated with South-West Africa, which became a de facto South African province despite international obligations first to the League of Nations and then to the UN). The only major difference would be a larger presence of Anglophone communities. Furthermore, the United Party would not even exist and thus the original core parts, the right-wing South African Party, the equally right-wing National Party, and the Unionist Party. Expansion of South Africa would benefit the SAP and the NP more than it would the Unionists, who would be permanently locked into a minority position on a national level, although all three would radicalize as socialist and communist movements start taking root. Regardless of what form South Africa takes (and remember that even IOTL the apartheid status quo was defended as "federalism" even if it definitely was not), this was going to be certain. Interestingly, Tswana objections to Bechuanaland being incorporated into South Africa proved to be a correct decision.

With that out of the way, let's shift gears and go straight to the OP.

I was recently reading about the negotiations between the British colonies in today's South Africa and the intense debate over the territorial structure of what was to be the Union of South Africa and in the South Africa Act of 1909.

According to Wikipedia, most of the colonies' governments preferred a federal structure but ultimately, due to the pressure from Jan Smuts, the Union would adopt a unitary territorial model with a Westminster-style unchecked, sovereign legislature.

So I was wondering how a federal structure could be adopted for the Union and how that could have impacted the development of a unified South Africa from 1904 on. ANy takers?

That definitely sounds interesting. This leaves open a question - what type of federalism were the colonies seeking? A Canadian-style centralized federalism (as it was at the time)? Australian-style? Something else entirely?

If I were to tackle a TL involving this, one of the first things I would do would be to transform the Cape Colony into separate provinces (basically following the OTL 1994 formula, but differently) because it looks too large in comparison with the other provinces. The only "1994 formula" (modern) province I'd use in that case would be Western Cape, but then after that I would draw a blank. The main thing, I see it, to get federalism going is precisely to modify Smuts' role so that his objections would be over-ruled and federalism entrenched as part of the system. Given that the design of the South African Senate seems to be similar to the Australian Senate (with some key differences, including the omission of the double dissolution), I'd think Australia's system would be the perfect model for South Africa. How it could impact the development of South African history, I don't know. Perhaps federalism could act as a bit of a check on the power of the federal government? (But that wouldn't necessarily be the case, as even Australia eventually had a centralized system thanks to the social safety net.)
 
Yeah I think I've been inadvertently in this thread backdating the United Party to a period when it doesn't exist. And of course the Nationalists went through several changes and iterations as well in the interwar period. I am of course aware that the United Party didn't exist before 1934.

And then you have the South African Labour Party who are going to be strengthened.

Hertzog's Government was an alliance between the Nationalists and Labour and laid the groundwork for Apartheid. White labour was a powerful force in Northern Rhodesia (although less so in the South) in OTL.

You might end up with something like "Anglo-Apatheied".
 
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The problem with that, in the South African case, is that there are improvements which would have helped South Africa from the beginning,

As someone wanting to learn more about South African history could we please discuss what these improvements are?
 
Cecil Rhodes not deliberately fucking with the Cape Qualified Franchise would help.

This is a bit where I wanted to go with regards to the ramifications. Not so much about Rhodesia, but how a federal system would impact the different ways in which the former colonies dealt with racial issues, etc.
 
Okay not sure what happened there but a Cape Colony which never restricts the Cape Qualified Franchise is way less likely to unite with the other states of the region. The whole point behind qhat Rhodes did was to unite Anglophones and white Afrikaners in the Cape under a shared Imperial project. This also occured along with expansion into what became the Eastern Cape which caused conflict there between white settlers and the ballack African indigenous population..

Hell British Natalia had a very discrimatory franchise as well, whilst those in the ZAR and the OFS were fully raciallsed.

A more likely result of this is some sort of Union of Natalia, the ZAR and the OFS as a British-Boer Republic under British suzereigntity with the more liberal Cape Colony doing its own thing.

This is more @SenatorChickpea's area.
 
The 1909 stuff I don't really know much about- by that point, my main exposure to South Africa is the delegations to the Imperial Conferences doing their general chorus of 'aren't we loyal? It's a great conference for all of us loyal people to meet and be loyal. We're Imperial. And loyal.'

A Federal Union that's run from Johannesburg (not Pretoria) was a real fear for the British government by the 1890s, if you read the famous Selborne Memorandum. Selborne was Salisbury's son-in-law (and therefore related to Balfour too) and Chamberlain's junior minister at the Colonial Office, so this was a view that was being heard right at the highest levels of the Unionist government. Basically he warns that Natal, the OFS and much of the Cape was already in the economic orbit of the ZAR. The sheer wealth of the Rand had made it the center of the subcontinent. Once the ZAR completed its rail link to Mozambique, it could cut off Natal from the vital customs revenues the colony received from the Transvaal's goods. Natal would then have to align even further with its neighbor, or risk economic collapse.

Essentially, there's a great irony about Chamberlain, Rhodes, Jameson and the rest. For all the talk about protecting the Uitlanders (foreign miners in the ZAR,) their worry was that eventually the Transvaal's government would be overthrown by the English speaking locals- who would then have been able to form an American style Republic. English speaking, capitalist, not a cultural threat to Britain's colonies- a very plausible nucleus of a Federated South Africa that emerges out of British control. The phrase 'United States of South Africa' actually crops up in the correspondence.

Was it a plausible threat? Difficult to say. Events moved very quickly at that time, and certainly Rhodes and Jameson did a lot of damage to the Uitlander's power with their ridiculous attempt at a coup. But for myself, I think there's a convincing case that the status quo wasn't going to last much longer- Paul Kruger's government was simply not set up to deal with the realities of the exploding wealth and fast growing settler population. Whether it was British conquest or a major constitutional shakeup, I doubt the ZAR would have lasted to 1910 by itself.

So that's one interesting path for you.
 
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The region being divided between a "United States of South Africa" and a Cape Colony restricted to the Northern and Western Cape would be very interesting.

The rump Cape would be under the British thumb, but would be a constitutional parliamentary monarchy under the CQF. If Rhodes doesn't come along its probably got fairly decent politics when it comes to race, with White and Coloured Capers forming a majority. You'd probably see a dominant liberal-conservative sort of party there, and an economy based on resource extraction around Kimberly, agriculture and probably light industry and ship building in Cape Town.

Poltiics in the USSA would be a hot mess. A strong white labour movement, competing Anglo and Afrikaner factions, hard-core segregation.
 
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Okay not sure what happened there but a Cape Colony which never restricts the Cape Qualified Franchise is way less likely to unite with the other states of the region. The whole point behind qhat Rhodes did was to unite Anglophones and white Afrikaners in the Cape under a shared Imperial project. This also occured along with expansion into what became the Eastern Cape which caused conflict there between white settlers and the ballack African indigenous population..


The region being divided between a "United States of South Africa" and a Cape Colony restricted to the Northern and Western Cape would be very interesting.

The rump Cape would be under the British thumb, but would be a constitutional parliamentary monarchy under the CQF. If Rhodes doesn't come along its probably got fairly decent politics when it comes to race, with White and Coloured Capers forming a majority. You'd probably see a dominant liberal-conservative sort of party there, and an economy based on resource extraction around Kimberly, agriculture and probably light industry and ship building in Cape Town.

Poltiics in the USSA would be a hot mess. A strong white labour movement, competing Anglo and Afrikaner factions, hard-core segregation.

This sounds like a really fascinating world. I'm tempted to make some map or graphic for it now. So basically this sort of scenario you first need the Cape not to go beyond the Kei and start annexing Xhosa lands? After the conquest, racial anxieties just make likelier for the Cape to move closer to the Boer republics and Natal?
 
Rhodesia may have never been as bad as apartheid but that's in a world where the Rhodesians aren't living cheek-by-jowl with a movement of fellow whites saying "I've got a great idea called apartheid". I'd assume a number of them will go "that IS a good idea", unless they were uneasy about the fact they'd be working with afrikaners who weren't the right sort of white people
 
Rhodesia may have never been as bad as apartheid but that's in a world where the Rhodesians aren't living cheek-by-jowl with a movement of fellow whites saying "I've got a great idea called apartheid". I'd assume a number of them will go "that IS a good idea", unless they were uneasy about the fact they'd be working with afrikaners who weren't the right sort of white people

The Land Apportionment Act of 1930 segregated land in favour of white Europeans and set aside "native reserves" for the black Africa population. It wasn't quite Apartheid, in that it lacked the whole "they're totally independent states, we promise" aspect of Apartheid, but it was really along those lines.

Oddly enough, Afrikaners within Southern Rhodesia were generally regarded favourably by Anglophones, although there wasn't the bilingualism that existed in the Union.
 
This sounds like a really fascinating world. I'm tempted to make some map or graphic for it now. So basically this sort of scenario you first need the Cape not to go beyond the Kei and start annexing Xhosa lands? After the conquest, racial anxieties just make likelier for the Cape to move closer to the Boer republics and Natal?

I think if the Cape doesn't go beyond the Kei and that the Boer Republics end up federating together and with Natal then the Cape remains a separate part of the British Empire. I mean, sure there would be people in the Cape advocating for it to join said federation, but Britain would really oppose it-and I think would be willing to back the Cape Coloured community in remaining independent and part of the Empire if only to prevent losing control of the Cape.
 
I think if the Cape doesn't go beyond the Kei and that the Boer Republics end up federating together and with Natal then the Cape remains a separate part of the British Empire. I mean, sure there would be people in the Cape advocating for it to join said federation, but Britain would really oppose it-and I think would be willing to back the Cape Coloured community in remaining independent and part of the Empire if only to prevent losing control of the Cape.

What do you think could happen in this scenario to the Fengu and other Xhosa polities in such scenario? Some kind of Lesotho-style arrangement? Annexation into Natal?
 
What do you think could happen in this scenario to the Fengu and other Xhosa polities in such scenario? Some kind of Lesotho-style arrangement? Annexation into Natal?

I'm afraid that this is reaching the limits of my own knowledge which is both later and further to the north more generally speaking.

But if I were to make an informed guess? Some sort of Lesotho style arrangement which basically makes them into proto-Bantustans for the USSA in this AH.
 
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