Frank Stora, one of the authors of the France Fights On TL, recently explained that various options had been considered regarding Pétain's role, and went on to say that removing him one way or the other before the start of the German offensive in 1940 may result in "a Vichy without Pétain--some pro-surrender politician takes over, but within the [institutional] context of the Third Republic. Said Third Republic is quickly torn between the demands of the Reich (as in "give us the Jews", "make weapons for us", "we're keeping Alsace") and its democratic nature. The Vichy dictatorship not being in place, the government falls, resulting either in a quite illegal takeover by Weygand, or in the advent of a 'resistant' government... soon deposed by the Wehrmacht, but then all the colonies and the fleet logically join the British. As usual, the possibilities of the POD are infinite."
To my knowledge this has never been explored. So, let's say that Pétain dies some time before 1940. The German invade on schedule, things go as in OTL, and within six weeks the French sue for an armistice. Let's say that when Reynaud steps down, the pro-surrender politician who succeeds him is Pierre-Etienne Flandin, not that it matters all that much. In the absence of a formal regime change, the French capital remains in Paris, though as in OTL its sovereignty is curtailed by German occupation of three-fifths of the country (for starters). What happens next?La "suppression" de Pétain avant le 10 Mai 40 est évidemment un PoD intéressant, mais encore faut-il renforcer la résolution de Reynaud. Faute de quoi, on risque d'avoir un Vichy sans Pétain - un politique capitulard quelconque prend le pouvoir, mais dans le cadre de la Troisième.
Laquelle Troisième se retrouve vite tiraillée entre les exigences du Reich (du genre "livrez-nous les Juifs", "fabriquez-nous des armes", "l'Alsace c'est à nous") et sa nature démocratique.
La dictature vichyste n'étant pas mise en place, chute du gouvernement, conduisant, soit à la prise du pouvoir de façon pas du tout légale par un Weygand, soit à la mise en place d'un gouvernement "résistant"… bientôt mis à bas par la Wehrmacht, mais alors toutes les colonies et la flotte repassent logiquement du côté anglais.
Comme d'habitude, les possibilités de PoD sont infinies.