ChrisNuttall
Well-known member
I wrote this with Dragon, so please forgive any errors.
What If The Spanish Republicans Sank A German Battleship?
I’m not sure how plausible this scenario actually is. My reading suggests it is at least theoretically possible, but it would be a long shot. On the other hand, the question of just what would happen if Britain and France (and everyone else) realised Germany was a paper tiger prior to 1939 is quite an interesting one. Hitler got as far as he did through bluff, bluster and military intimidation. What would he do, if such tools were denied to him?
What Actually Happened?
When the Spanish Civil War broke out, the Nazis dispatched a considerable amount of war material and personnel to help the Nationalists move their troops from Spanish Morocco to Spain itself and, later, provide both air and ground support (partly to let German forces test their new equipment and gain experience they’d put to good use later in WW2). The Germans had some nasty bumps along the way, but nothing that would prove their claim of being a reborn military superpower to be nothing more than a tissue of lies.
What Might Have Happened?
The Germans suffer a disaster fairly early on, and events proceed from there.
The first priority for the Nationalists was reinforcing their forces in Spain before the Republicans could muster their troops and crush them. There were limits to how much could be sent via air transport, so convoys had to run between Morocco and Nationalist Spain. (Seville (landlocked) was the one major city held by the Nationalists in those days, and it provided a landing point for air transports; it’s quite possible the region could have been far more unable, making air transport much more dangerous.) Let us assume that the majority of the Army of Africa, along with much of their heavy weapons, is sent via sea.
This wouldn’t have been an absurd gamble. The Republican Navy was in shambles. The officer corps was not trusted, while the sailors were unprepared to take their ships to war. It is just possible that the Republicans would have managed to mount a motor torpedo attack on the convoy, which was escorted by German ships. The Germans had orders not to engage the Spanish Republicans-although my sources seem to differ on the point-but in the confusion it is unlikely they would not open fire. The ensuring confusion leads to a German battleship being sunk, her sister retreating at speed, and a handful of transports being sunk too. Franco himself survives, but the Army of Africa is in disarray and unwilling to continue the convoys, at least until the sea lanes can be secured. The Germans still try to move troops via air transport, but this is incredibly difficult as the situation is still in flux.
The news of the sinking reaches Hitler very quickly. Hitler is furious and demands bloody retaliation. The German air force in the region carries out a handful of strikes on Republican territory, none of which are particularly effective. The forces that bombed Guernica in the original timeline are not yet existent. The German Navy bombards a pair of Republican ports, but when the torpedo boats make their appearance again the Germans retreat. This is under Hitler’s direct orders not to risk any further ships, but this does not do wonders for Germany’s military reputation.
The Republican government works hard to take advantage of the unexpected international crisis. It insists the German ships were legitimate targets on the grounds they were escorting rebels and mutineers, taking a side in Spanish internal affairs. More practically, it raises more troops and, as the early disasters have been largely averted, is more able to secure the countryside. It also looks more like a winner, so international powers are more willing to extend it credit and not openly or otherwise side with Franco. Italy starts to back away from the Nationalists, not so much out of Mussolini’s ideological convictions being challenged as fear of losing warships and transports of its own. Mussolini still sends some troops and supplies to Franco, but most of their goods have to go via Spanish Morocco.
Franco finds himself in something of a trap. The Nationalists are losing ground in Spain itself. The Nationalist zone is shrinking. The Republicans are not only raising more troops, but blooding them in combat to gain experience. They are also recruiting volunteer troops from overseas (the International Brigades). The French are more willing to provide weapons in this timeline as they are much less intimidated by Germany and much more confident the Republicans will win the war. The British are more standoffish, as they are concerned about a Bolshevik Spain, but watching German battleships fleeing small boats has convinced them that the German Navy is a paper tiger. There’s also the advantage of a more stable Republican government being less inclined to embrace Bolshevism.
The disaster has political implications in Nazi Germany. The myth of Hitler’s infallibility has not even got off the ground. The loss of a battleship and subsequent humiliation has cost Raeder his job. Göring is on very thin ice. Dönitz has been promoted to replace Raeder and is proposing the development of a majority submarine/torpedo boat navy, rather than trying to match the British and French battleship fleets. He sells this to Hitler by explaining it will allow Germany to give the British a taste of their own medicine. (The Germans have tried to explain the disaster by blaming it on British support for the Republicans, but no one believes this outside Germany.) Hitler is not best pleased, but there are few other options.
Franco decides to gamble on mounting a desperate offensive aimed at Madrid. In the original timeline, the attack on Madrid came very close to success. The Soviets saved the Republicans by trading Spain’s gold reserves for reasonably modern weapons. In this timeline, the Republicans are considerably weaker and they have much less support from Germany and Italy. The battle is incredibly hard fought, but it ends with a Republican victory. The Nationalists are forced to retreat. Franco, knowing when to fold them, orders a retreat to Spanish Morocco. The troops are joined by hundreds of thousands of refugees, from priests to aristocrats and businessmen, who have good reason to fear their fate in a Republican Spain. The evacuation includes most of the foreign soldiers, although a number do die in battle or fall into Republican hands. By the end of 1936, Spain is held by the Republicans and Spanish Morocco is a Nationalist stronghold. The Republicans would like to do something about that, but they lack the naval and air forces to cross the straits and invade Morocco. To all intents and purposes, the war has effectively stalemated.
This creates a financial crisis in the Third Reich. Hitler was very good at making his conquests and interventions pay for themselves. In this timeline, the intervention has failed spectacularly and the Nationalists are unable, as well as unwilling, to pay for what little they received from the Germans. Cancelling the more “imaginative” naval plans has helped a little, but Germany is still very short of everything she needs to wage war. Worse, Germany can no longer convince anyone that she is a military superpower who needs to be placated or she will just take whatever she wants. Neither France nor Britain are particularly scared of the Reich, while both the Poles and the Czechs see themselves as Germany’s equals.
The shorter Spanish Civil War has also taught the world a very different set of lessons. Franco’s attempted blitzkrieg failed spectacularly, therefore blitzkrieg is not a valid military tactic. Airpower is very useful on the battlefield, but not dominant and not capable of knocking a nation out of the war through bombing the civilian population. Most importantly of all, battleships are vulnerable to small boats launching torpedoes and a number of relatively cheap torpedo boats can bring down even the biggest battleship. The Royal Navy publicly insists that British ships would not be so easily taken down, but privately starts working on counter-tactics. All the major naval powers, and some that want to be, also start expanding their own torpedo boat fleets.
The crisis comes in 1938. Hitler has become more frustrated with his inability to achieve his goals than in our timeline. The idea of uniting Germany and Austria was popular in our timeline, but much less popular here. The Germans did not look so invincible and the risk of outside intervention much will likely. Mussolini blocked it in 1934 and many of his supporters think he should block it again, despite the risk of war with Germany. Mussolini still sees himself as the senior fascist and doesn’t think Adolf-come-lately should be dictating anything to him. Italy actually has a better military reputation in this timeline as it has not suffered the defeats of the original timeline.
Hitler, at this point, was not convinced of his own infallibility either, but he is painfully aware that his window for reshaping Europe is closing rapidly. Germany’s enemies, including the Soviets, are getting more powerful, while the German economy is struggling to meet the demands of the ever-growing world machine. The Germans are robbing Peter to pay Paul and there’s no Peter left, certainly not one they can take without risking a major war. Hitler moves troops to the border and informs the Austrians that they will be reunited with Germany whether they like it or not. They don’t. The Germans don’t look so tough.
This sparks the crisis. The Czechs and the Poles back the Austrians. So do the French, believing this is their chance to prune Hitler’s wings. Britain quietly supports the French. Stalin maintains a watchful neutrality. The threat is condemned by the League of Nations. Hitler is caught in his own trap. If he fights and loses, the Third Reich is doomed; if he backs down, the Third Reich is probably doomed anyway and Hitler himself certainly is. Hitler has no illusions about how popular he is with the German elite, and about how many military men have their own doubts about him. The Germans push into Austria and attempt to annex the country.
The Austrians fight back, encouraging their allies to join the war. The Germans do well at first, but start to get bogged down as they run short of everything from ammunition to spare parts. Outside observers note that German tanks are very good, and their coordination is good too, yet they don’t have the ability to replace their losses. Two weeks into the war, the Germans are in desperate straits. The French are pushing into the Rhineland, against scanty opposition, and the only thing keeping the Poles from doing the same thing is the risk of Stalin invading from the East. The Germans have actually claimed there is a Soviet-German alliance like the one in our timeline, but in this world it simply doesn’t exist. Stalin has no intention of hitching himself to a falling star.
The end comes rapidly. Hitler is removed from power and send into exile in Italy. The military takes control of Germany, blames everything on Hitler and his cronies, and sues for peace. The peace terms are harsh, but not as bad as 1919. Germany has new limits on her military, and have to pay compensation, but otherwise not severely punished.
The brief war seems to prove the workability of collective security. Despite the failings of the League of Nations, it can claim that it helped to stop a genuine threat to world peace. The French-Polish-Czech-Austria Alliance did much of the heavy lifting and effectively remains in being. Other potential aggressors take note. Mussolini is encouraged to retire after the war-as his verbal support for Hitler is now a major liability-and Stalin, paranoid as ever, launches another series of purges. Japan continues to wage war in China, but is grimly aware she cannot win a conflict with most of the world.
That said, she may feel she has no choice but to risk a war …
What If The Spanish Republicans Sank A German Battleship?
I’m not sure how plausible this scenario actually is. My reading suggests it is at least theoretically possible, but it would be a long shot. On the other hand, the question of just what would happen if Britain and France (and everyone else) realised Germany was a paper tiger prior to 1939 is quite an interesting one. Hitler got as far as he did through bluff, bluster and military intimidation. What would he do, if such tools were denied to him?
What Actually Happened?
When the Spanish Civil War broke out, the Nazis dispatched a considerable amount of war material and personnel to help the Nationalists move their troops from Spanish Morocco to Spain itself and, later, provide both air and ground support (partly to let German forces test their new equipment and gain experience they’d put to good use later in WW2). The Germans had some nasty bumps along the way, but nothing that would prove their claim of being a reborn military superpower to be nothing more than a tissue of lies.
What Might Have Happened?
The Germans suffer a disaster fairly early on, and events proceed from there.
The first priority for the Nationalists was reinforcing their forces in Spain before the Republicans could muster their troops and crush them. There were limits to how much could be sent via air transport, so convoys had to run between Morocco and Nationalist Spain. (Seville (landlocked) was the one major city held by the Nationalists in those days, and it provided a landing point for air transports; it’s quite possible the region could have been far more unable, making air transport much more dangerous.) Let us assume that the majority of the Army of Africa, along with much of their heavy weapons, is sent via sea.
This wouldn’t have been an absurd gamble. The Republican Navy was in shambles. The officer corps was not trusted, while the sailors were unprepared to take their ships to war. It is just possible that the Republicans would have managed to mount a motor torpedo attack on the convoy, which was escorted by German ships. The Germans had orders not to engage the Spanish Republicans-although my sources seem to differ on the point-but in the confusion it is unlikely they would not open fire. The ensuring confusion leads to a German battleship being sunk, her sister retreating at speed, and a handful of transports being sunk too. Franco himself survives, but the Army of Africa is in disarray and unwilling to continue the convoys, at least until the sea lanes can be secured. The Germans still try to move troops via air transport, but this is incredibly difficult as the situation is still in flux.
The news of the sinking reaches Hitler very quickly. Hitler is furious and demands bloody retaliation. The German air force in the region carries out a handful of strikes on Republican territory, none of which are particularly effective. The forces that bombed Guernica in the original timeline are not yet existent. The German Navy bombards a pair of Republican ports, but when the torpedo boats make their appearance again the Germans retreat. This is under Hitler’s direct orders not to risk any further ships, but this does not do wonders for Germany’s military reputation.
The Republican government works hard to take advantage of the unexpected international crisis. It insists the German ships were legitimate targets on the grounds they were escorting rebels and mutineers, taking a side in Spanish internal affairs. More practically, it raises more troops and, as the early disasters have been largely averted, is more able to secure the countryside. It also looks more like a winner, so international powers are more willing to extend it credit and not openly or otherwise side with Franco. Italy starts to back away from the Nationalists, not so much out of Mussolini’s ideological convictions being challenged as fear of losing warships and transports of its own. Mussolini still sends some troops and supplies to Franco, but most of their goods have to go via Spanish Morocco.
Franco finds himself in something of a trap. The Nationalists are losing ground in Spain itself. The Nationalist zone is shrinking. The Republicans are not only raising more troops, but blooding them in combat to gain experience. They are also recruiting volunteer troops from overseas (the International Brigades). The French are more willing to provide weapons in this timeline as they are much less intimidated by Germany and much more confident the Republicans will win the war. The British are more standoffish, as they are concerned about a Bolshevik Spain, but watching German battleships fleeing small boats has convinced them that the German Navy is a paper tiger. There’s also the advantage of a more stable Republican government being less inclined to embrace Bolshevism.
The disaster has political implications in Nazi Germany. The myth of Hitler’s infallibility has not even got off the ground. The loss of a battleship and subsequent humiliation has cost Raeder his job. Göring is on very thin ice. Dönitz has been promoted to replace Raeder and is proposing the development of a majority submarine/torpedo boat navy, rather than trying to match the British and French battleship fleets. He sells this to Hitler by explaining it will allow Germany to give the British a taste of their own medicine. (The Germans have tried to explain the disaster by blaming it on British support for the Republicans, but no one believes this outside Germany.) Hitler is not best pleased, but there are few other options.
Franco decides to gamble on mounting a desperate offensive aimed at Madrid. In the original timeline, the attack on Madrid came very close to success. The Soviets saved the Republicans by trading Spain’s gold reserves for reasonably modern weapons. In this timeline, the Republicans are considerably weaker and they have much less support from Germany and Italy. The battle is incredibly hard fought, but it ends with a Republican victory. The Nationalists are forced to retreat. Franco, knowing when to fold them, orders a retreat to Spanish Morocco. The troops are joined by hundreds of thousands of refugees, from priests to aristocrats and businessmen, who have good reason to fear their fate in a Republican Spain. The evacuation includes most of the foreign soldiers, although a number do die in battle or fall into Republican hands. By the end of 1936, Spain is held by the Republicans and Spanish Morocco is a Nationalist stronghold. The Republicans would like to do something about that, but they lack the naval and air forces to cross the straits and invade Morocco. To all intents and purposes, the war has effectively stalemated.
This creates a financial crisis in the Third Reich. Hitler was very good at making his conquests and interventions pay for themselves. In this timeline, the intervention has failed spectacularly and the Nationalists are unable, as well as unwilling, to pay for what little they received from the Germans. Cancelling the more “imaginative” naval plans has helped a little, but Germany is still very short of everything she needs to wage war. Worse, Germany can no longer convince anyone that she is a military superpower who needs to be placated or she will just take whatever she wants. Neither France nor Britain are particularly scared of the Reich, while both the Poles and the Czechs see themselves as Germany’s equals.
The shorter Spanish Civil War has also taught the world a very different set of lessons. Franco’s attempted blitzkrieg failed spectacularly, therefore blitzkrieg is not a valid military tactic. Airpower is very useful on the battlefield, but not dominant and not capable of knocking a nation out of the war through bombing the civilian population. Most importantly of all, battleships are vulnerable to small boats launching torpedoes and a number of relatively cheap torpedo boats can bring down even the biggest battleship. The Royal Navy publicly insists that British ships would not be so easily taken down, but privately starts working on counter-tactics. All the major naval powers, and some that want to be, also start expanding their own torpedo boat fleets.
The crisis comes in 1938. Hitler has become more frustrated with his inability to achieve his goals than in our timeline. The idea of uniting Germany and Austria was popular in our timeline, but much less popular here. The Germans did not look so invincible and the risk of outside intervention much will likely. Mussolini blocked it in 1934 and many of his supporters think he should block it again, despite the risk of war with Germany. Mussolini still sees himself as the senior fascist and doesn’t think Adolf-come-lately should be dictating anything to him. Italy actually has a better military reputation in this timeline as it has not suffered the defeats of the original timeline.
Hitler, at this point, was not convinced of his own infallibility either, but he is painfully aware that his window for reshaping Europe is closing rapidly. Germany’s enemies, including the Soviets, are getting more powerful, while the German economy is struggling to meet the demands of the ever-growing world machine. The Germans are robbing Peter to pay Paul and there’s no Peter left, certainly not one they can take without risking a major war. Hitler moves troops to the border and informs the Austrians that they will be reunited with Germany whether they like it or not. They don’t. The Germans don’t look so tough.
This sparks the crisis. The Czechs and the Poles back the Austrians. So do the French, believing this is their chance to prune Hitler’s wings. Britain quietly supports the French. Stalin maintains a watchful neutrality. The threat is condemned by the League of Nations. Hitler is caught in his own trap. If he fights and loses, the Third Reich is doomed; if he backs down, the Third Reich is probably doomed anyway and Hitler himself certainly is. Hitler has no illusions about how popular he is with the German elite, and about how many military men have their own doubts about him. The Germans push into Austria and attempt to annex the country.
The Austrians fight back, encouraging their allies to join the war. The Germans do well at first, but start to get bogged down as they run short of everything from ammunition to spare parts. Outside observers note that German tanks are very good, and their coordination is good too, yet they don’t have the ability to replace their losses. Two weeks into the war, the Germans are in desperate straits. The French are pushing into the Rhineland, against scanty opposition, and the only thing keeping the Poles from doing the same thing is the risk of Stalin invading from the East. The Germans have actually claimed there is a Soviet-German alliance like the one in our timeline, but in this world it simply doesn’t exist. Stalin has no intention of hitching himself to a falling star.
The end comes rapidly. Hitler is removed from power and send into exile in Italy. The military takes control of Germany, blames everything on Hitler and his cronies, and sues for peace. The peace terms are harsh, but not as bad as 1919. Germany has new limits on her military, and have to pay compensation, but otherwise not severely punished.
The brief war seems to prove the workability of collective security. Despite the failings of the League of Nations, it can claim that it helped to stop a genuine threat to world peace. The French-Polish-Czech-Austria Alliance did much of the heavy lifting and effectively remains in being. Other potential aggressors take note. Mussolini is encouraged to retire after the war-as his verbal support for Hitler is now a major liability-and Stalin, paranoid as ever, launches another series of purges. Japan continues to wage war in China, but is grimly aware she cannot win a conflict with most of the world.
That said, she may feel she has no choice but to risk a war …