What if Rodolfo Graziani died in 1937?

[Gary Oswald]

Discuss this article here

 

[Charles EP M.]

Bloody hell, that's a grim one

 

[Gary Oswald]

Bloody hell, that's a grim one

The article is, but the grim bits are mostly otl. The scenario has the potential to be less grim given Graziani is dead and it's heavily implied Badoglio has made a mistake that will drag a lot of the colonial empires down with him.

I think Badoglio declaring independence is a stretch, if I was writing this article I'd have him declare 'Free Italy' on receiving a guarantee from Britain that Italy's African empire would remain intact post war, though its possible there's otl statements from Churchill that would discount that possibility that I've not encountered but Steve has. But the idea of Churchill backstabbing Selassie and Selassie then becoming a loose cannon is a really interesting scenario to play with.

 

[RyanF]

Small thing mentioned and not the main focus of the article, but the Allies going after Italian war criminals is a fascinating idea too.

I think Badoglio declaring independence is a stretch, if I was writing this article I'd have him declare 'Free Italy' on receiving a guarantee from Britain that Italy's African empire would remain intact post war, though its possible there's otl statements from Churchill that would discount that possibility that I've not encountered but Steve has.

'Free* Italy' does seem the more logical route, but for the purposes of the article think it's a matter of semantics.

But the idea of Churchill backstabbing Selassie and Selassie then becoming a loose cannon is a really interesting scenario to play with.

Yeah that was the really interesting part. As grim as it might be, the idea of another colonial state attempting to cling on to existence being literally (in the literal sense) Fascist is another fascinating one. How do Algeria, Angola, Kenya, South Africa and Rhodesia all look when an actual Axis power successor is still in existence in Africa? Does it speed things up, or double them down?

 

[Alex Richards]

Yeah that was the really interesting part. As grim as it might be, the idea of another colonial state attempting to cling on to existence being literally (in the literal sense) Fascist is another fascinating one. How do Algeria, Angola, Kenya, South Africa and Rhodesia all look when an actual Axis power successor is still in existence in Africa? Does it speed things up, or double them down?

I think it does both but in different ways. I can't see this lasting past the late 50s- there's going to be some sort of Suez Crisis and I can't see this state surviving past the point where it's become clear that Britain and France aren't going to be able to prop things up anymore. I can see Algeria dragging out for longer if there's a sudden exodus from Ethiopia of Italians wanting to prop up the regime in Algiers, but conversely I can Apartheid ending earlier in South Africa if we get an outright 'oh no that actually just doesn't work' so much earlier than Rhodesia.

 

[TheIO]

The article is, but the grim bits are mostly otl. The scenario has the potential to be less grim given Graziani is dead and it's heavily implied Badoglio has made a mistake that will drag a lot of the colonial empires down with him.

I think Badoglio declaring independence is a stretch, if I was writing this article I'd have him declare 'Free Italy' on receiving a guarantee from Britain that Italy's African empire would remain intact post war, though its possible there's otl statements from Churchill that would discount that possibility that I've not encountered but Steve has. But the idea of Churchill backstabbing Selassie and Selassie then becoming a loose cannon is a really interesting scenario to play with.

I read "Badoglio declaring independence" and wondered a scenario where he declares Italian East Africa to be the Abyssinian Empire (the one they invaded five years prior) but with him as Emperor and no actual personnel changes. Might require someone with even more ego instead but there's at least a veneer of local legitimacy he could claim.

Which, whilst probably even more unstable than a "Free Italy" Italian East Africa would be, because the Ethiopians wouldn't believe him and the Eritreans and Somalis wouldn't like being even nominally part of Ethiopia, would offer some interestingly bizarre White Rajah-esque action in Africa.

 

[Alexander Rooksmoor]

I was fascinated by this article as I had been 'shopping around' for leading individuals of Fascist Italy to alter their history to provide a point of divergence. In the end in last year I wrote a novel, 'Taken in Lycia' (it is with Tom) that featured the fictional disappearance rather than of Graziani, of Cesare De Vecchi (1884-1959), 1st Count of the Val Cismon instead. He had also been Governor of Italian Somaliland, 1923-28 and was governor of the Dodecanese Islands from December 1936 until 1939. He had been one of the so-called quadrumvirs, the almost legendary four Fascist leaders who had organised the “March” on Rome in 1922 and was responsible for the December 1922 Turin Massacre.

 

[Alexander Rooksmoor]

Small thing mentioned and not the main focus of the article, but the Allies going after Italian war criminals is a fascinating idea too.



'Free* Italy' does seem the more logical route, but for the purposes of the article think it's a matter of semantics.


Yeah that was the really interesting part. As grim as it might be, the idea of another colonial state attempting to cling on to existence being literally (in the literal sense) Fascist is another fascinating one. How do Algeria, Angola, Kenya, South Africa and Rhodesia all look when an actual Axis power successor is still in existence in Africa? Does it speed things up, or double them down?

Yes, the pro-French rule conspirators in Algeria certainly looked to Franco's Spain and Salazar's Portugal, both Fascistic states that persisted post-1945. I think an enduring Italian Somaliland would have faced the tensions that all these states you mention faced and we would have seen the kind of unrest witnessed in Algeria by Arab nationalists.

 

[Alexander Rooksmoor]

Small thing mentioned and not the main focus of the article, but the Allies going after Italian war criminals is a fascinating idea too.

I think this would have been much more likely even in our world, if the Conservatives had returned to power in 1945 rather than Labour coming into office. Sir Anthony Eden, Foreign Secretary (1935-38; 1940-45 & 1951-55) - who spoke fluent Arabic and Farsi - was far more hostile to Italy than many of his ministerial colleagues. If he had continued as Foreign Secretary in 1945-50, then it is possible more effort would have been made against the Italian war criminals. Going against those who had committed atrocities in Italian colonies, however, may have been avoided due to the risk it would lead to criticism of British rule in its own empire and its actions in Palestine and Malaya post-war. Furthermore if you look at Blind Eye to Murder (1981) by Tom Bower, you can see how partial and ineffectual even de-Nazification in Germany was. Thus, even if there had been an active hunt for Italian war criminals many would probably have escaped justice.