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Discuss the second part of this article by @DaleCoz here
I think it could happen but it would require more fundamental and dramatic changes to the regime than described here. If it just ended up as generic authoritarian military junta with the crazies purged after the Polish debacle, perhaps, but that's not as ironic as 'actually it might end up even worse in the long run if Hitler fails early' (which EdT also used in "A Greater Britain" - in which, IIRC, the neo-Nazi crazies benefit from Germany having developed under unpleasant but less nutso regimes in the meantime).The idea of a messy, four-way German/Polish/Soviet/Ukrainian war in Eastern Europe plus a Soviet/Japanese one over Manchuria is interesting, but I think the TL went off the rails with Germany becoming a nuclear power.