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Surviving Edmund of Somerset for Henry VIII's Great Matter?

OwenM

The patronising flippancy of youth
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With a living younger brother rather than just a daughter and a bastard, how is Henry's position affected? Is he perhaps less strained and less willing to decide he had gone against the Bible in marrying Catherine, and therefore staying Catholic?
Or, even assuming the above, given his personality, is he still going after Anne and could her combined influence with Cromwell still lead him into a less pro-Pope position on the Reformation, if not the outright split of OTL?
And what about Edmund himself? If things go mostly as OTL, would Edmund be a potential figurehead for Catholics as Mary was OTL, or could we see the opposite, with a Catholic King and a Protestant heir presumptive (possibly the most interesting in how badly it could end up fucking up international diplomacy in Europe in this period)?
 
Depending on their personal relationship, Henry could either feel reassured at having a 'safe' and trustable brother as a potential heir if he doesn't have a son by Catherine - and so be less keen to replace her - or even more paranoid than in OTL, at not being able to trust Edmund to keep to his policies if/when he succeeds and in fear of Edmund plotting with his enemies. If he was still angry and humiliated at not having a son, having a brother he didn't trust ready to challenge his daughter Mary once he was dead could make him even keener to get rid of Catherine quickly - especially if Edmund was friends with conservative nobles like the duke of Buckingham (executed 1521 for supposed treason) and had a poor relationship with the Boleyn family. In that case, the Boleyns could expect disgrace if Henry died and Edmund succeeded, and so use Anne to push Henry into sidelining Edmund by getting a new male heir ie a son by Anne. In reality Henry's younger sister Mary, Duchess of Suffolk (d 1533), and her husband Charles Brandon, Duke of S and Henry's boon companion, backed Catherine against the Boleyns and were suspected of ulterior motives as their son Henry (1516-34) was a potential alternative heir to the throne - and the same could occur to Edmund.
It's anyone's guess if Edmund would have an interest in serious scholarly studies and theology and so be a potential convert to Protestantism; his father Henry VII organised 'high-powered' tutors and serious academic studies for his children and we have a record of the international-linked top Dutch scholar Erasmus visiting the royal nurseries at Eltham, Kent on a trip to England in 1499 (when Edmund was an infant) and Prince Henry (ie H VIII), aged 8, showing off his Latin to him. Henry and Edmund' elder brother Arthur was a studious type rather than being keen on jousting etc like Henry, quite apart from his weak health, and their grandmother Lady Margaret Beaufort (the 'Red Queen' of Philippa Gregory's books) was very learned and a college founder. Edmund could have taken after them, and if he took after the active Henry he could have led various English expeditions to France and prestige diplomatic missions if Henry trusted him.

Given the lack of princesses of the right age available in the English-allied Habsburg dynasty in the 1510s and 1520s, and Henry's usual hostility to France, possibly Edmund (b 1499) would have been married off into the family of Emperor Charles V (also King of Spain)'s Portuguese relatives , eg to King Manuel I (b 1469, r 1495-1521)'s younger daughter Beatrice (b 1504). Charles secured her elder sister Isabella for himself - and so Edmund and Beatrice's children would have been first cousins of the future King Philip II of Spain. A conservative and Catholic Edmund would have been a good ally for Philip at the time of his marriage to Henry's daughter Mary and alliance with England in 1554 - and he or his children could have been the Catholic and Spanish candidate for the throne to succeed Mary in 1558. They would be 'legitimate' as seen in Catholic eyes unlike Elizabeth Tudor, safer and nearer to the throne than the pro-French Mary Stuart of Scotland (at this point married to King Henri II of France's heir) who was grand-daughter of Henry VIII's elder sister Margaret Tudor, and ditto compared to MT's daughter Lady Margaret Douglas.

Edmund may have been able to negotiate the perils of high court politics in the 1530s-1540s successfully without being thrown in the Tower or executed by his ultra-suspicious brother , provided he had followed the current religious policies unhesitatingly , not aroused the suspicions of Thomas Cromwell in 1531-40 or Anne Boleyn in 1533-6 too dangerously, and not got involved with the Pilgrimage of Grace in 1536 or the alleged plots of Henry's half-Plantagenet Courtenay and Montague cousins with the Habsburgs on Princess Mary's behalf in 1537-9. His potential to be a 'Richard III' as regent for Henry's heir - Mary, Elizabeth, or Edward (VI) - if Henry died suddenly would have made his position perilous, eg when Henry was knocked out in a jousting accident in Jan 1536, but if Henry trusted him and he was not interested in religion he could still be around in 1546-7.

At that point, as next adult male heir he was in the usual position to be regent when Henry died - in OTL it was Edward VI's uncle on the female side, the reformist Protestant Edward Seymour (Duke of Somerset) , who headed the regency council then ignored H's wishes by getting the rest of the council to agree to him being full 'Protector' ie regent not just first among equals. So would Edmund have been in the real life position of the conservative Howards, who Seymour tried (successfully) to get Henry to destroy politically before he died to clear the way for himself? Or could a prince fight back better than the Howards, so Edmund would have blocked the way to Seymour and secured a moderate, non-Protestant regency for Edward VI - so no 'Edwardian Reformation'? At this point, Henry VIII was still theologically Catholic on most matters, though reformist and anti-Pope, and was not aiming at a Protestant regency for his son. Assuming that Edmund was regent or co-head of the ruling council after 1547, Edmund or his presumed son would be in a good position to succeed Mary Tudor in 1558. If Edmund was Protestant, then when Edward died in 1553 he would have had to weigh his religious duty to save England from Catholic Mary against his loyalty to her as next legitimate heir - so if he put religion first he could have either taken the throne or married off his son (born 1520s?) to the replacement Queen, either Elizabeth Tudor (b 1533) or Lady Jane Grey (b 1537). So a continuing Tudor dynasty and no Stuart succession in 1603?
 
With a living younger brother rather than just a daughter and a bastard, how is Henry's position affected? Is he perhaps less strained and less willing to decide he had gone against the Bible in marrying Catherine, and therefore staying Catholic?
Or, even assuming the above, given his personality, is he still going after Anne and could her combined influence with Cromwell still lead him into a less pro-Pope position on the Reformation, if not the outright split of OTL?
And what about Edmund himself? If things go mostly as OTL, would Edmund be a potential figurehead for Catholics as Mary was OTL, or could we see the opposite, with a Catholic King and a Protestant heir presumptive (possibly the most interesting in how badly it could end up fucking up international diplomacy in Europe in this period)?

I've got a really old thread on this, but I'm in meetings till noon. Hold on.
 
Scenario 1: When Henry VIII declares himself supreme head of the church in England in 1534, Edmund becomes the rallying point for a Catholic rising

Seemingly one of the failures of any concerted opposition to Henry VIII's reformation was the lack of a well-appointed Roman Catholic alternative. Had Edmund remained faithful to the Pope, he may have found himself seen as a Catholic alternative to Henry. Had this been the case (I find it a little unlikely) I don't see Edmund being successful, and he presumably loses his head, or at least spends a lot of time in the Tower.

Scenario 2: When Edward VI dies, Edmund is named as his heir

Assuming Edmund Tudor is still alive in 1553, and events go more or less as in our timeline, it seems likely that he is named as Edward VI's heir. It's quite probable that he would have still been alive, as both his father and his brother Henry lived to their 50s, and let's assume that he's also a Protestant of some description. If Edmund is dead by 1553, then we can substitute a hypothetical son.

Edmund would likely have been an influential figure during Edward VI's reign, and when it became clear that Edward was going to die he could have moved to secure his own succession.

Edmund would make sense as heir, far more than Lady Jane Grey did. First, Edmund is a man - at the time, the only previous experience there had been of a woman inheriting the throne had been Matilda, which hadn't been a positive time. Edmund would have been in a strong position, as a landowner, a protestant male, an adviser to Edward VI, and a son of Henry VII.

What could be problematic for Edmund is that this passes over Elizabeth in the succession. If she marries and has children, then these children could be challenge his family for the throne. His best bet, therefore, is to marry her to one of his sons.

Scenario 3: The Somersets inherit after Elizabeth dies

If Edmund and his family keep their heads down and don't rock the boat too much, when Elizabeth dies (assuming that the same pressures prevent her from marrying and having children as in our timeline) the crown passes to Edmund's line. Assuming he had sons, this means a surviving House of Tudor, for the time being at least, and also prevents the royal union of Scotland and England.
 
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