• Hi Guest!

    The costs of running this forum are covered by Sea Lion Press. If you'd like to help support the company and the forum, visit patreon.com/sealionpress

Soviet/Japanese war in 1934

The Kwangtung army
This is a spelling error one often comes across: Kwangtung instead of Kwantung. Kwantung (Guandong in pinyin) was the name of the territory on the tip of the Liaodong peninsula leased to Japan, from which the army in question took its name since it is where it was originally based. Kwangtung (Guangdong in pinyin) is a province in southern China.
 
I'm not sure if I would buy this being too plausible, but it could make for an interesting timeline if slightly tweaked in some places, but sadly the only decent POD I see predates Hitler by at least two years, which can throw a lot of things out of whack unless you go with butterflies. Actually maybe the only decent POD doesn't need a war.

Basically when Japan invaded they seized something called the Chinese Eastern Railway. This was based on a colonial concession of Russia from the the 1890's and was inherited by the Soviets and remained in their control by 1931. Perhaps the entire railway isn't abandoned and it becomes a flash point of a war?
 
Last edited:
I'm not sure if I would buy this being too plausible, but it could make for an interesting timeline if slightly tweaked in some places, but sadly the only decent POD I see predates Hitler by at least two years, which can throw a lot of things out of whack unless you go with butterflies. Actually maybe the only decent POD doesn't need a war.

Basically when Japan invaded they seized something called the Chinese Eastern Railway. This was based on a colonial concession of Russia from the the 1890's and was inherited by the Soviets and remained in their control by 1931. Perhaps the entire railway isn't abandoned and it becomes a flash point of a war?

The Chinese Eastern Railway is certainly one of the more curious aspects of the region's history that certainly warrants more examination. It had been promised to be fully returned to China by the Soviets in 1919, but they reneged on that five years later by inking a deal promising joint authority while also double-dealing with the local warlord to make him think he had more control than he did. Subsequently they spent the next five years undermining the Chinese position until said warlord's son, Zhang Xueliang, tried to reassert the Chinese position and in turn faced a massive Soviet invasion that effectively restored joint authority with the scales tilted heavily in the Soviets' favour. Incidentally this conflict gave the Kwantung Army much of the confidence and intel to proceed with the invasion of Manchuria two years later.

The status of the railway in the early 1930s seems to suggest the Japanese honoured the legal fiction of joint authority, with Manchukuo taking the place of China, but were also wary of the presence of so many Red Army troops. Certainly the 1929 Sino-Soviet war had caused concern that the status of Manchuria as being effectively in Japan's sphere of influence was being undermined. At any rate the Soviets proposed selling the railway to Manchukuo in 1933 due to racking up significant losses and a deal was concluded in 1935, but among Japanese officials the value of the purchase was questioned due to the investments needed to shift the infrastructure to Japanese standards.

So there is some potential for a flashpoint regarding the CER's status. It could be something the two parties stumble into as a result of poor communication and coordination, or something premeditated like Stalin following Blyukher's advice to take a more active approach in Manchuria following the Japanese invasion. Or the negotiations over the purchase could break down. But as the Japanese occupation is prolonged the happier the Soviets would probably be to sell it off.
 
The Chinese Eastern Railway is certainly one of the more curious aspects of the region's history that certainly warrants more examination.
Quite. Nobody in the AH community ever thought to do anything with the CER's director during the Russian civil war until I featured him in WIAF. It's always Ungern-Sternberg this and Semyonov that, but Horvath never gets any attention despite being in charge of a vital line of communication and running it as his own private satrapy for nearly 20 years.
 
A potential flashpoint and a brief Soviet-Japanese War in 1934 does seem like it would probably be a likely scenario in a ‘surviving’ Weimar Republic (and by surviving I mean, probably a Military Junta lead by Von Schliecher or something).

It would likely have some fascinating effects though, Stalin would probably not be as strong and there’s likely no Great Purges as in OTL, a draw probably leads to the Japanese Army factions gaining more power over the Japanese Navy which probably does wonders to Japan’s not incredibly stable internal politics (Japanese Army Coup?).

It does open the possibility for a Forties that’s maybe more like the Thirties, small wars across the globe etc.
 
Back
Top