Scalia lives

[Ricardolindo]

Scalia lives, Hillary wins, Republicans get a majority on the court anyways.

When RBG keels over (there's no reason to think she wouldn't be a lifer), there's a very strongly Republican Senate ready to stonewall President Clinton's nominees until after the elections. Kennedy probably waits to retire until the next Republican takes office, meaning that the GOP gains a justice and replaces a relatively moderate justice with a more conservative one. For the Democrats to gain anything from this scenario, Scalia would need to die sometime between Jan. 20, 2017 and Jan. 3, 2019. Otherwise, Hillary's best-case scenario is getting through a very moderate justice.

Considering Scalia died in February 2016 in our timeline, there is a good chance that he would have died before the 2018 midterms.
Also, if Trump still won, do you think Scalia would have retired during his term?

 

[Luke_Starkiller]

I see no reason why he wouldn't, especially if Kennedy did.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I remember reading that Rubio said in 2017 that he thought that if Scalia had not died, Trump may not have won.

It turns out I misremembered. In fact, it was Cruz who said this in 2018, read https://insider.foxnews.com/2018/06...-anthony-kennedy-retirement-trump-replacement.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Holding all else constant, Clinton faces a 52 to 48 Senate. If it's more obvious that she's bound to win, maybe that puts Ayotte over the top in New Hampshire (she lost by 0.14%) because the GOP can more easily run a 'keep her honest' campaign akin to Clinton 96. Clinton's easiest routes to getting 50 or 51 votes for a judicial appointment are Collins, Murkowski, and Graham.

If Scalia dies before 2018, the GOP would berserk at the idea of somebody even center-left like Garland replacing him, especially if they hold the Senate majority. Clinton might try to pressure them with a Merrick Garland or a Sri Srinivasan, but I don't think they'd accept that.

Wallace B. Jefferson (see here) was somebody mentioned by Clinton's staff. Brian Sandoval was mentioned as a possibility of the Scalia seat, but he said no, probably because he didn't feel like being a sacrificial lamb before the 2016 election.


Ginsburg OTL wanted to be replaced by the first woman president and held out because she didn't like Trump. I can see Breyer having the health to not retire, but not Ginsburg who had been in and out of the hospital for several years. She would also be very aware that the odds of a replacement she would find acceptable getting confirmed would be much greater before November 2018 than after.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Holding all else constant, Clinton faces a 52 to 48 Senate. If it's more obvious that she's bound to win, maybe that puts Ayotte over the top in New Hampshire (she lost by 0.14%) because the GOP can more easily run a 'keep her honest' campaign akin to Clinton 96. Clinton's easiest routes to getting 50 or 51 votes for a judicial appointment are Collins, Murkowski, and Graham.

If Scalia dies before 2018, the GOP would berserk at the idea of somebody even center-left like Garland replacing him, especially if they hold the Senate majority. Clinton might try to pressure them with a Merrick Garland or a Sri Srinivasan, but I don't think they'd accept that.

Wallace B. Jefferson (see here) was somebody mentioned by Clinton's staff. Brian Sandoval was mentioned as a possibility of the Scalia seat, but he said no, probably because he didn't feel like being a sacrificial lamb before the 2016 election.


Ginsburg OTL wanted to be replaced by the first woman president and held out because she didn't like Trump. I can see Breyer having the health to not retire, but not Ginsburg who had been in and out of the hospital for several years. She would also be very aware that the odds of a replacement she would find acceptable getting confirmed would be much greater before November 2018 than after.

I can see this also resulting in the Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Missouri senate races being flipped, though.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

I can see this also resulting in the Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Missouri senate races being flipped, though.

The GOP Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin outperformed Trump. Missouri might go the other way though.

People who care about the Supreme Court would also be plenty likely to show up to ensure Clinton cannot nominate very liberal nominees even without Scalia's seat being vacant though.