Ricardolindo
Well-known member
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Let's say Scalia did not die in February 2016. Is it possible that without control of the Supreme Court at stake, enough conservatives would abstain for Hillary to win?
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Scalia lives
- Thread starter Ricardolindo
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Jackson Lennock
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It was a big motivating factor for people holding their noses and voting for Trump; especially among many religious, pro-life, and pro-gun voters.
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It was a big excuse.
Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
For some or many or even most, sure. But I assume it wasn't unanimously just an excuse; and a big enough chunk of them took that bit seriously to put Trump over the edge.
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Yeah I don't see why we should assume it was ever a big chunk of people.
I Saw A Red Sky
He killed my ma, he killed my pa, but 🤓
Don't think people who vote for president based on the Supreme Court have ever been a significant amount, certainly don't see why conservatives would abstain from voting over it.
Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
If it's even half a percent of the overall public, that makes Hillary Clinton president.
Ricardolindo
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Polls have shown that Republican voters care more about the Supreme Court than Democratic voters.
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It would be like five people, who all went to serve in Trump's administration.
I mean it would be a teensy percentage buuuut the margin of victory was slim enough that that might still do Trump in, especially since it could have been a real chance to dent the Roberts conservative court.. Of course you have to consider things like how liberals reacted to McConnell making up precedent to keep the seat open, or the cases that were resolved by a 8-seat court turning out differently with Scalia still on the bench.
Elektronaut
Effectively Stood Down
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When it comes down to any very close election you're really very deep into Shit Happens territory on the possibility of any single event diverging the outcome. Particularly so for an event which occured nine months before the election.
That said, there are more obvious ways to diverge the election than this.
That said, there are more obvious ways to diverge the election than this.
Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
Ricardolindo
Well-known member
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I remember reading that Rubio said in 2017 that he thought that if Scalia had not died, Trump may not have won.
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The same fundamental problem as everything else in this thread is exemplified by him: Why should anyone believe Marco Rubio?
Elektronaut
Effectively Stood Down
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I mean it's totally predictable that Rubio would downplay the election of Trump as a win for Trump. He'd play it up as a win for "traditional Conservatism" and an election that was won as a referendum on the supreme court. It's not really analysis or anything.
Visigoethe
lefty lurker
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The only particularly interesting electoral question with Scalia living in my mind is if this results in Kennedy feeling less pressure to retire and therefore no Kavanaugh nomination which polling data suggests was a decisive factor for Republicans keeping the Senate in 2018.
Steve Brinson
The possum is not OK. Neither are we.
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Why would we assume that it was only a one-way effect? There were plenty of Democrats motivated by not wanting to give Trump a Supreme Court appointment, not to mention those who thought McConnell's management of the appointment process was not something that should be tolerated. It's not obvious to me that the prospect of Trump appointing Scalia's successor animated more Trump supporters than Trump opponents to go to the polls.
Ricardolindo
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Polls have shown that Republican voters care more about the Supreme Court than Democratic voters.
Vidal
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Food for thought...
www.vox.com
I think it's more than fair to use Scalia living as a POD for Hillary winning
Polling data shows Republicans turned out for Trump in 2016 because of the Supreme Court
They’re about to get exactly what they want.
www.vox.com
I think it's more than fair to use Scalia living as a POD for Hillary winning
Luke_Starkiller
Well-known member
Scalia lives, Hillary wins, Republicans get a majority on the court anyways.
When RBG keels over (there's no reason to think she wouldn't be a lifer), there's a very strongly Republican Senate ready to stonewall President Clinton's nominees until after the elections. Kennedy probably waits to retire until the next Republican takes office, meaning that the GOP gains a justice and replaces a relatively moderate justice with a more conservative one. For the Democrats to gain anything from this scenario, Scalia would need to die sometime between Jan. 20, 2017 and Jan. 3, 2019. Otherwise, Hillary's best-case scenario is getting through a very moderate justice.
When RBG keels over (there's no reason to think she wouldn't be a lifer), there's a very strongly Republican Senate ready to stonewall President Clinton's nominees until after the elections. Kennedy probably waits to retire until the next Republican takes office, meaning that the GOP gains a justice and replaces a relatively moderate justice with a more conservative one. For the Democrats to gain anything from this scenario, Scalia would need to die sometime between Jan. 20, 2017 and Jan. 3, 2019. Otherwise, Hillary's best-case scenario is getting through a very moderate justice.