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Russian Ground Intervention in Syria

lerk

Well-known member
With what’s going on in Ukraine right now, I have begun to focus on another military intervention conducted by Russia. A successful one, and possibly the only one in its history where it didn’t use ground troops to a great extent.

First things first is that you need a POD. Here I will provide two: one, the Syrian rebels manage to drive out the SAA out of all of Aleppo around 2015, this further worsening the situation for the Assad regime. Second, a massive terror attack (such as say, the destruction of a civilian airliner) is conducted by Chechen militants who were based in Syria (IOTL, one of the reasons why Putin intervened is because he feared a revival of the Chechen insurgency in case the Islamists won in Syria, as they would have received training in Syria and now a base to launch operations). With the Syrian government facing a worse situation than OTL along with there being more incentive for Russia to intervene (along with a lot more civilian outcry), Putin decides to take the leap and announce ground operations in Syria.

Pros for Russia:

1) In 2015, and arguably up until 2018, America’s main focus was on fighting Islamist militant groups, and to that extent it saw both Russia and China as partners even if they weren’t friends. IOTL there wasn’t much outcry against the Russian intervention in Syria, and as were supposing that this intervention is happening because of a terror attack the outcry will be even less. Considering how Obama was generally apathetic towards Syria I don’t think he’ll try to give Putin his own Afghanistan, and in fact I think they’d be some US-Russia cooperation here

2) And it is because of this apathy that the Syrian rebels will find themselves in a difficult situation. Whatever successes they had on the battlefield it was against the Syrian Arab Army (which had been worn out due to defections and spies). Of course, we know now that the Russian Army isn’t a competent fighting force but they’ll be fighting against a bunch of rebels who in OTL were ill equipped and prone to infighting, their ideological spirit being one of the few things helping them


cons for Russia:

1) Syria is in the Mediterranean, it isn’t likely that Russian soldiers, in the cold country that they originate from will find themselves acclimated to the climate, especially in the summer

2) The announcement of a ground intervention will just bring in more foreign fighters, wanting to get a taste of fighting the army of a superpower. The Soviet Afghan War and the Chechen Wars are focused on greatly in Jihadist literature, so those who follow that view Russia as a great villain, and now is their chance to fight them on their own

3) Turkey, which IOTL was a big funder of the rebels, will not be pleased and will response to the Russian intervention by providing more aid to the rebels
 
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