Rum conquest of Nicaea and Trebizond

[Ricardolindo]

What if the Sultanate of Rum had been able to conquer the Empires of Nicaea and Trebizond before the Mongols arrived? They were fairly successful against both, capturing Antalya and Sinope, but failed against the former at the Battle of Antioch-On-Meander and against the latter at the Siege of Trebizond.
Could we see Turkish expansion into Europe earlier than in our timeline?
@heraclius

 

[Albert the Singularity]

What were the factors that led to the rise of the Ottoman Sultanate? Can they be recreated? It's going to be very hard to replicate as the Ottomans were at a lucky place at a lucky time. Various Civil wars in the Byzantine Empire under the Palaiologos that led to the loss of Bursa (formerly Prusa) and Bithynia to the Ottomans, loss of Thrace and parts of Illyricum the the newly strengthened Slavic states of Bulgaria and Serbia and more importantly, the power vacuum left by the Byzantine Empire after 1204 CE and the Latin Empire, too, replaced by a Byzantine Empire that was permanently damaged, led to the coagulation of the Ottoman Beylik, and the conquest of the other Beyliks. Was Sultanate of Rum that internally strong, since it is the state that disintegrated or gave rise to these Beyliks?

To sum it, complex factors happening at once led to the rise of the Ottoman Empire as it did, OTL.

 

[Ricardolindo]

What were the factors that led to the rise of the Ottoman Sultanate? Can they be recreated? It's going to be very hard to replicate as the Ottomans were at a lucky place at a lucky time. Various Civil wars in the Byzantine Empire under the Palaiologos that led to the loss of Bursa (formerly Prusa) and Bithynia to the Ottomans, loss of Thrace and parts of Illyricum the the newly strengthened Slavic states of Bulgaria and Serbia and more importantly, the power vacuum left by the Byzantine Empire after 1204 CE and the Latin Empire, too, replaced by a Byzantine Empire that was permanently damaged, led to the coagulation of the Ottoman Beylik, and the conquest of the other Beyliks. Was Sultanate of Rum that internally strong, since it is the state that disintegrated or gave rise to these Beyliks?

To sum it, complex factors happening at once led to the rise of the Ottoman Empire as it did, OTL.

As I said, the Sultanate of Rum did conquer Antalya and Sinope. One of the causes for its desintegration was the Mongol invasion. I agree an earlier Turkish expansion into Europe would be less successful but, at least, some gains in Greece and Bulgaria would be possible.

 

[Albert the Singularity]

some gains in Greece and Bulgaria would be possible.

For this, you need a crippling civil war either in Empire of Nicaea or the Byzantine Empire, considering that it was the Byzantine Civil War of 1341-1347, second under the Palaiologos Dynasty, that caused the Byzantines to loose Bithynia, which is the gateway to Europe.

 

[Ricardolindo]

For this, you need a crippling civil war either in Empire of Nicaea or the Byzantine Empire, considering that it was the Byzantine Civil War of 1341-1347, second under the Palaiologos Dynasty, that caused the Byzantines to loose Bithynia, which is the gateway to Europe.

The Byzantine Empire isn't relevant in this time period, as it was immediately following the Fourth Crusade. The Sultanate of Rum did capture Antalya from Nicaea. What if they had won the Battle of Antioch-On-Meander? They actually had the support of a Nicaean prince.

 

[Albert the Singularity]

The Byzantine Empire isn't relevant in this time period, as it was immediately following the Fourth Crusade. The Sultanate of Rum did capture Antalya from Nicaea. What if they had won the Battle of Antioch-On-Meander? They actually had the support of a Nicaean prince.

Multiple things are being missed out here. Let's consider Nicaea as the Rump State of the Byzantine Empire. It was still satisfactorily stable, and at least capable of defending itself as of then.

Now consider the Seljuk Sultanate (which was quite different from the Ottoman Turkish Beylik, which became the Ottoman Empire). They were somewhat of a confederation, which are loosely built, most of which are different tribes, each with their own interests. I really don't see a complete outrun of Nicaea by them. Definitely not. If you want to substitute it with a stronger and a more coagulated Seljuks who can do that? Enter the Ottomans. The conquest of the Balkans and Constantinople, was aided by the highly coagulated and stable Ottoman Turks, which held true even at the peak. This is a discounted fact but as true as it gets. Stability of that level is something Medieval states consider ideal. The reasons for that are many, which are for a discussion in an another thread about the Ottomans.

 

[heraclius]

I don't honesty see the Konya Seljuks as having the right size and integrated capabilities in their army - which was mostly a mixture of allied tribal groups' cavalry that came together for campaigns if so minded or if the Sultan was strong/ charismatic enough but was not adapted for sieges as opposed to ambushing or starving out a poorly-led and poorly-scouted Byzantine or Crusader army. They would have needed a complete collapse of leadership at Nicaea (possible if the Latin Empire is not defeated by Bulgaria in 1205 and has a stronger army that can take Nicaea and the other Bithynian cities quickly in 1205-6, killing Theodore Lascaris and his main generals) plus the timing and luck to be able to starve out the cities of the 'Thracesion' Nicaean heartland (ie Ionia/ Lydia based on Smyrna) and force the Christians to become their vassals and supply troops and tribute. Ditto Trebizond - but less likely there as it is remote in distance alogn ambush-prone coast roads and has strong walls plus a fleet. Possible if the leadership of both is killed in battle, by a better-resourced and luckier Sultan Rukn-al-Din (k 1211 by the Nicaeans in OTL) or one of his reasonably capable sons in the 1210s or 1220s, as the Orthodox Greeks loathed the Latins more than the Turks after the sack of Constantinople - and the Seljuks had plenty of, religiously tolerated and not heavily taxed, Greek Christian subjects in central Anatolian villages .

Their three early C13th Sultans in 1192 to the 1240s were all capable and charismatic statesmen and generals who held a large domain full of semi-autonomous tribal nomads together until the defeat by the Mongols at Kose Dagh in 1243. But they would need a lot of luck, probably more nomads as auxiliaries in the cavalry to overwhelm several mainly infantry Nicaea. Trebizond armies ( possible in the late 1210s if a lot of refugees from Genghis Khan's first assault on Turkestan in 1219 arrives en masse in Anatolia as safer than Azerbaijan), and a Latin empire that is too busy in the Balkans to stop them. Also, they have no fleet or naval tradition so the Latins, with the Venetian fleet, will block them at the Bosphorus and Dardenelles - and they will have no time to adapt to ruling Ionia and building a fleet (as in OTL the Emirate of Aydin did in c. 1300-1330) before the Mongols arrive and ravage Antatolia. At best they could hold the West of the latter, but be too small and short of troops to try tackling a surviving Latin Empire, a successful Bulgaria , or a resurgent Byz state of Epirus under a more successful Theodore Angelus Ducas who has defeated Bulgaria in 1230 and taken all of Thrace (and Constantinople?).