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Richmond Falls Early, 1864

C

ChrisNuttall

Well-known member
I was recently reading Hymns of the Republic (Gwynne, 2019) and it raised an interesting possibility. A Union force, under the command of General Butler in 1864, found itself in a position to take both Richmond and Petersburg during the fighting in the Wilderness, a bold stroke that appealed to Butler’s instincts. Unforcunately for Butler, his subordinates rejected the concept and he found himself unable to take the Confederate capital and cut Lee’s supply lines until it was far too late, prolonging the war.

What if he’d taken Richmond?

More interestingly, given Butler was an ardent abolitionist, what if he was the one in command of the post-war South?

Chris
 
If it was during the battle of the Wilderness, this was May 1864, so it was a couple months before the siege and capture and occupation of Atlanta and then Sherman's march to the sea. So there may be a greater time lag than in OTL between the fall of Richmond and the ultimate defeat/capitulation of the CSA (OTL it was March 23 when Richmond was abandoned and April 25th when surrender at Appomattox happened, May 10th for Davis's capture, and June 23rd for the last of the surrenders in Texas & Indian Territory). In this ATL there may be a somewhat longer period of weeks/months while the CSA has temporary capitals the Carolinas or Georgia before the end.
 
Assuming it's in May as posited above, Lee has to pick his poison in just the way Grant had hoped. Either he'll just have to abandon Northern Virginia completely, chased the whole way by the Army of the Potomac looking for the kill, or he'll try to quickly turn and fall on Butler before Grant can catch up. Considering how much of a gambler Lee was, I could easily see him attempting the latter. Either way the Union likely wins big, and I can't see the war lasting beyond the fall. Butler in this scenario would have a lot more post war political clout, considering he would have considerably contributed to the winning of the war, instead of the twin failures at Bermuda Hundred and Fort Fisher he had OTL.

Hate to say it but a lot depends on if Lincoln is still assassinated in this timeline. He would get re-elected easily, and it still makes political sense for him to pick Andy Johnson (sigh) for VP. Lincoln's reconstruction is sure to not go as far from the start as Radical Reconstruction, but anything he does won't cut the floor right from under it like Johnson did. For example, Johnson famously undid the 40 Acres and a Mule military order that Sherman had put into place. In addition, a lot of his willingness to deal easily with former Rebels was based on their abiding by the new realities in the new Union: the end of slavery or anything like it, and voting rights for at least some freedmen. Butler's role in this would be hard to tell, but my assumption would be that he'd resign his commission and go back to politics once the fighting stopped.

Overall, I think the effect would be a better, much more competent Reconstruction from the start, with a real chance for holding on against the inevitable backlash that would come. Very curious who Lincoln's successor might be in a time when he isn't murdered. Butler would probably be a top candidate, actually, considering that the circumstances that helped encourage him to run (Johnson's general awfulness and being dragged along on his Swing Around the Circle tour) don't happen here, plus the boost Butler would get. Butler as President is really difficult to predict, but I'd like to think he'd further solidify Civil Rights and effectively fortify a few of the states with the largest black populations (South Carolina, Mississippi, and perhaps Louisiana) for them to survive Redemption, which was probably inevitable to a certain extent in most states.
 
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StephenColbert27 said:
I look forward to reading it! This is one of my personal favorite what ifs. I know you'll do it justice.
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Thanks.

I would say here that the odds are pretty long for Butler. There were still Confederate forces in North Carolina to threaten him, the Richmond Garrison which is its own problem and the defenses of Richmond are simultaneously too tough for his two corps to crack even against a skeleton force (as seen IOTL) and were he to take the town too widespread for him to hold them with the forces on the scene when the Confederate counterpunch comes knocking.

This is massively hypocritical of me, considering the book goes for the Flashier option, but ignoring Richmond and going for Petersburg makes a lot more sense. Grant gave Butler leeway to go for either city but also insisted that City Point be taken on the Southside of the Appomattox. Between Bermuda Hundred and City Point at the tip of the V is Petersburg and the essential rail line that connected Richmond to the rest of the south and especially Wilmington the last open port for blockade runners on the Atlantic Seaboard. If Butler had been able to take it it certainly creates a major crisis for Lee and Richmond, but it does not, at least as long as the Shenandoah Valley can provide crops, mean the immediate abandonment of Northern Virginia, but a slightly faster tightening of the noose. The big question becomes if Grant can move more forces down to support Butler before he himself starts facing any dangerous squeeze.

I'm in a decade long hole with this story, you can find me talking about it on AHDC back around 2010. But if you really want to do the decisive change that leads to Virginia falling quicker, have Grant do what he originally wanted to do, leave Burnside to defend DC, and take most of the Army of the Potomac down to North Carolina to seize the CS ports and bring Lee south.

Long term though I think its fair to say Butler if victorious would become the Republican VP nominee a few months later. If one were to treat Booth as n inevitable assassin then the door opens to a Radical Reconstruction that is supported by the executive and the legislature, and a Republican Party that is far more keen to the needs of farmers and labor.
 
Japhy said:
Long term though I think its fair to say Butler if victorious would become the Republican VP nominee a few months later. If one were to treat Booth as n inevitable assassin then the door opens to a Radical Reconstruction that is supported by the executive and the legislature, and a Republican Party that is far more keen to the needs of farmers and labor.
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I think its fairly safe to say that Butler would be a better VP pick for Lincoln than the historical choice, which was disastrous. Johnston has a fair claim to being the worst POTUS in the US’s history, which is up against some pretty stiff competition <grin>.

If Lincoln still gets assassinated as OTL, we have a far more radical reconstructionist in power who was still far more hated in the CSA. Butler would push a policy of blaming the war on the slaveowners, confiscating their property and doling it out to the former slaves. Butler would also have far more willingness to deploy troops to keep the peace, giving the black population a chance to get on its feet after slavery without being smacked back down again. Forest and the historical KKK might never get going on this world, particularly if they lose quickly during the early stages of the post-war turmoil. Would this be better or worse?

I look forward to reading the novel.

Chris
 
Japhy said:
This is massively hypocritical of me, considering the book goes for the Flashier option, but ignoring Richmond and going for Petersburg makes a lot more sense. Grant gave Butler leeway to go for either city but also insisted that City Point be taken on the Southside of the Appomattox. Between Bermuda Hundred and City Point at the tip of the V is Petersburg and the essential rail line that connected Richmond to the rest of the south and especially Wilmington the last open port for blockade runners on the Atlantic Seaboard. If Butler had been able to take it it certainly creates a major crisis for Lee and Richmond, but it does not, at least as long as the Shenandoah Valley can provide crops, mean the immediate abandonment of Northern Virginia, but a slightly faster tightening of the noose. The big question becomes if Grant can move more forces down to support Butler before he himself starts facing any dangerous squeeze.

I'm in a decade long hole with this story, you can find me talking about it on AHDC back around 2010. But if you really want to do the decisive change that leads to Virginia falling quicker, have Grant do what he originally wanted to do, leave Burnside to defend DC, and take most of the Army of the Potomac down to North Carolina to seize the CS ports and bring Lee south.
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I mean it's hardly hypocritical to take the flashier option that more readers will go along with/understand immediately ("oh Butler does THIS and not THAT and uh seizes Richmond") instead of the more precisely likely option that will just be confusing and involve more exposition. I am curious whether either Butler going for Petersburg or Grant going all the way down to North Carolina does as much to shorten the war to fall of '64 as "Richmond (handwaves) falls to Butler"
 
Roger II said:
I mean it's hardly hypocritical to take the flashier option that more readers will go along with/understand immediately ("oh Butler does THIS and not THAT and uh seizes Richmond") instead of the more precisely likely option that will just be confusing and involve more exposition. I am curious whether either Butler going for Petersburg or Grant going all the way down to North Carolina does as much to shorten the war to fall of '64 as "Richmond (handwaves) falls to Butler"
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I mean the big thing is that Butler can hold Petersburg and Grant can defeat Lee in North Carolina but it takes a hell of a lot of handwaves for Butler to do more then just raid Richmond. But yes in the softest AH terms of "It just works" is the fastest boost towards shortening the war.
 
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