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Post-colonial Pacific Federation

0.42@632

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Given the large number of disparate archipelagoes and cultures across the Pacific Islands, it would be possible for a supra-national Pacific Federation to emerge as a reaction.
The obstacles to such a Federation are as following:

1) The different colonial powers and the arrangements by which possessions were (and in several cases, are administered)
The division of the Pacific between Britain, France, America, Japan and (briefly, Germany), and the retention of local rulers in Tonga's case certainly complicates any drives for unification.

2) Unwillingness to decolonize - in America's case in Hawaii and American Samoa, and the "associated state" relation between Micronesian states and the US, and the Cook Islands and NZ, not to mention the actual colonial (with continued settler immigration) in New Caledonia and French Polynesia

3) Lack of drive or rationale to unify - besides the small fish, big pond problem there are no geopolitical outside threats to force unification

So a scenario which favors unification would require
1) One colonial power grabbing the vast majority of the Pacific Islands (for example a stronger British Empire which monopolizes the colonial field while a longer-lasting Napoleon distracts mainland Europe)

2) Said power's defeat in conflict - and the lack of neighboring colonial powers to move in like how America moved into Japanese Nan'yо̄) after WW2 or how New Zealand seized western Samoa

3) A geopolitical threat with both the desire and the ability to annex the nation (America seems to be the only reasonable option - considering that they were able to base more men on New Caledonia than the native population during WW2 and its long Pacific Coastline)

Supposing the "later Napoleonic France focuses on Europe" and turns colonialism into an overwhelmingly British enterprise scenario, and the defeat and occupation of Britain by a *fascist-totalitarian America, something like a Pacific Federation is possible.

The government would have to be federal in order to deal with the vast distances between (and within) island groups, and might use consociational seating to avoid alienating , say the Micronesians whose population is ~500,000 compared to the ~2 million Melanesians and ~2 million Polynesians (counting Hawaii). Also traditional kings, chiefs, and cargo-lords would have to be included in the governing structure (if only due to the control of said figures over entire islands like Tonga, and possibly Samoa and Fiji if their monarchies chose to become protectorates) perhaps through a Rajpramukh structure of hereditary governance. Also, the question of what to do with European and Asian settler populations in a post-colonial environment might lead to again, reserved seats on the basis of race to avoid creating tensions between Native Pacific and settlers.

Creating a superstate on the map is easy- getting it to actually hold together with the consent of all parties involved is harder.

Perhaps with a relatively small population of 4 million (comparable to Moldova), the legislature could actually be nonpartisan and built around constituency groups instead.
 
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1) One colonial power grabbing the vast majority of the Pacific Islands (for example a stronger British Empire which monopolizes the colonial field while a longer-lasting Napoleon distracts mainland Europe)

I don't see how this one works at all.

Historically Tuvalu and Kiribati were governed as the same entity- the Crown Colony of the Gilbert and Ellis Islands- from 1892 until 1976, but still broke apart. The geographically less dispersed Federal Colony of the British Leeward Islands in the Caribbean was administered as a single entity from 1671 until 1958 when it utterly imploded into the current countries of Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis and Dominica, as well as the BOTs of the British Virgin Islands, Anguilla and Montserrat (and even then Barbuda and Nevis both tried to stay as BOTs in their own right).

In fact almost all of the British colonies in the Pacific- including Fiji and the Solomons- were administered by a single High Commissioner and that didn't make a blind bit of difference.

There are numerous colonial and post-colonial efforts at federations ranging from French West Africa to Rhodesia-Nyasaland and the Federation of West Indies, and they all ended up floundering on the fact that in any instance where the native population of the entire area hadn't been essentially supplanted by a new colonial population, there was too much of a desire to go back to their original local independent states to hold things together.
 
So I had a thought this morning- why did the Federated States of Micronesia happen in the way it did. The modern country is only part of the original US Pacific Trust territory and was administered as three separate districts in and of itself.

And from some research online (this article is quite interesting for example), the answer appears to be that the bits which are now Micronesia wanted independence and the other bits didn't really want that. The Marianas successfully negotiated their way into staying with the US, Palau and the Marshalls decisively rejected it, and then kept on being outvoted by the central group on where all the instruments of government would be. So they then voted against joining the federation.

Annoyingly what I can't find is any particular explanation for why the central bits were happy going together beyond 'they just were'.
 
Scaling down the original OP of an united pan-Pacific state, what areas could have formed a tight (think NATO/EU) supranational grouping in the Pacific had the region been completely decolonized? Malê Rising has a Melanesian Union and a Polynesian Union is possible as a defense union
 
NATO and the EU are very different levels of integration, and the former suffers from the fact that basically nobody has enough of a population or economy to support a significant military so they tend to fall under the umbrella of Australia anyway if not the US.

EU-levels depends on who you want to include I think- Fiji could outvote the whole of Micronesia by a near two-to-one margin, which means trying to include everything is going to be tricky.
 
NATO and the EU are very different levels of integration, and the former suffers from the fact that basically nobody has enough of a population or economy to support a significant military so they tend to fall under the umbrella of Australia anyway if not the US.

EU-levels depends on who you want to include I think- Fiji could outvote the whole of Micronesia by a near two-to-one margin, which means trying to include everything is going to be tricky.
Maybe a tiered union where Tier 1 (integral members) each send one delegate regardless of population and Tier 2 (associates) send delegates based on population (for smaller states) while Tier 3 (observer) members can discuss but not vote.

Kind of like the proposals for a multitier federated EU where the Tier 1 is treated as a sovereign independent supranational state and Tier 2 is less integrated but also participates.
 
Maybe a tiered union where Tier 1 (integral members) each send one delegate regardless of population and Tier 2 (associates) send delegates based on population (for smaller states) while Tier 3 (observer) members can discuss but not vote.

Kind of like the proposals for a multitier federated EU where the Tier 1 is treated as a sovereign independent supranational state and Tier 2 is less integrated but also participates.

I think the problem with this is that the members most likely to be in favour of this model are also the ones least likely to be able to actually impose it.

From only a little bit of research admittedly, I'm pretty sure you could write a short TL focused on Micronesia going independent as one country- as the UN and the US both originally wanted.

More of a struggle, but still doable IMO would be a sort of British Polynesia federation- Kiribati, Tuvalu, Nauru, Tokelau, Rotuma, maybe the Cook Islands and the Samoas as well. Again this is in the sense of 'I think you could probably construct a half-plausible narrative for this that feels at least as believable as the attempts at a surviving Federation of the West Indies that have been done.'

I think it would be quite tricky to try and pull both off in the same scenario and then have them come together, although if you did then you might be able to work out some way of having Wallis et Futuna and French Polynesia. Pitcairn is basically in the 'does Britain just throw the damn thing at these guys or do they say no?'

Trying to include the states of Melanesia as well? Honestly I just can't see it, at least not in anything like a federation or something based on equal terms- it's much more likely to be smaller states piggy-backing off larger ones.

If you're looking for a largely united South Pacific something like a surviving Tu'i Tonga Empire is probably the best bet.
 
I think the problem with this is that the members most likely to be in favour of this model are also the ones least likely to be able to actually impose it.

From only a little bit of research admittedly, I'm pretty sure you could write a short TL focused on Micronesia going independent as one country- as the UN and the US both originally wanted.

More of a struggle, but still doable IMO would be a sort of British Polynesia federation- Kiribati, Tuvalu, Nauru, Tokelau, Rotuma, maybe the Cook Islands and the Samoas as well. Again this is in the sense of 'I think you could probably construct a half-plausible narrative for this that feels at least as believable as the attempts at a surviving Federation of the West Indies that have been done.'

I think it would be quite tricky to try and pull both off in the same scenario and then have them come together, although if you did then you might be able to work out some way of having Wallis et Futuna and French Polynesia. Pitcairn is basically in the 'does Britain just throw the damn thing at these guys or do they say no?'

Trying to include the states of Melanesia as well? Honestly I just can't see it, at least not in anything like a federation or something based on equal terms- it's much more likely to be smaller states piggy-backing off larger ones.

If you're looking for a largely united South Pacific something like a surviving Tu'i Tonga Empire is probably the best bet.
Male Rising had the British capture French Polynesia and New Caledonia and Australia integrate both of them (with varying degrees of success)
 
Male rising is a wonderful piece of fiction. Good fiction like that doesn't have to be plausible, and indeed MR mostly isn't.

If you want to write a story in this setting, just do so and handwave the logistics.

If you want to talk historical probabilities, fiction isn't the best source.
 
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