Portugal keeps Cabo Verde and São Tomé and Príncipe

[archangel]

It depends whether a referendum were held island by island or in the archipleago as a whole, and a country made only from a part of the archipelago would face more problems at independence.

The independence of Cape Verde and São Tomé was kind of forced by the far-left during the period where thay had (non-representative) influence. There were no natively implanted independence movements.

 

[Gary Oswald]

The independence of Cape Verde and São Tomé was kind of forced by the far-left during the period where thay had (non-representative) influence. There were no natively implanted independence movements.

Yes, but there were native independence movements, they just were based elsewhere.

People born and bought up in Cabo Verde were high up in either the active resistance movement in Guinea-Bissau or the party in exile in Guinea-Conkary. Likewise people born and bought up in Sao Tome had established a resistance movement from Gabon.

The post colonial leaders didn't come from nowhere, they mostly just returned from exile. Like by 1972, the African Union had already recognised native governments based elsewhere in Africa as the legitimate of rulers of Cabo Verde and Sao Tome.

I don't disagree that a more right wing government could have held onto both areas but the idea that this was a decision made purely based on the situation in Portugal rather than the one in Africa isn't the entire story. This isn't an Azores or Maderia like situation where there was no serious support for independence at all until the Carnation Revolution after which rebels suddenly started to emerge, they already existed.

Also given that there were bombing campaigns by separatists in both the Azores and Maderia in the mid 1970s without any previous resistance infrastructure means there's definitely going to be some in both Cape Verde and São Tomé.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Yes, but there were native independence movements, they just were based elsewhere.

People born and bought up in Cabo Verde were high up in either the active resistance movement in Guinea-Bissau or the party in exile in Guinea-Conkary. Likewise people born and bought up in Sao Tome had established a resistance movement from Gabon.

The post colonial leaders didn't come from nowhere, they mostly just returned from exile. Like by 1972, the African Union had already recognised native governments based elsewhere in Africa as the legitimate of rulers of Cabo Verde and Sao Tome.

I don't disagree that a more right wing government could have held onto both areas but the idea that this was a decision made purely based on the situation in Portugal rather than the one in Africa isn't the entire story. This isn't an Azores or Maderia like situation where there was no serious support for independence at all until the Carnation Revolution after which rebels suddenly started to emerge, they already existed.

Also given that there were bombing campaigns by separatists in both the Azores and Maderia in the mid 1970s without any previous resistance infrastructure means there's definitely going to be some in both Cape Verde and São Tomé.

Thing is, if Portugal kept the archipelagos for a few years and developed them, most of their population would lose any interest in independence.
Even today, some people in the archipelagos regret independence, believing they would be better off if they had stayed with Portugal.

 

[archangel]

Yes, but there were native independence movements, they just were based elsewhere.

People born and bought up in Cabo Verde were high up in either the active resistance movement in Guinea-Bissau or the party in exile in Guinea-Conkary. Likewise people born and bought up in Sao Tome had established a resistance movement from Gabon.

The post colonial leaders didn't come from nowhere, they mostly just returned from exile. Like by 1972, the African Union had already recognised native governments based elsewhere in Africa as the legitimate of rulers of Cabo Verde and Sao Tome.

I don't disagree that a more right wing government could have held onto both areas but the idea that this was a decision made purely based on the situation in Portugal rather than the one in Africa isn't the entire story. This isn't an Azores or Maderia like situation where there was no serious support for independence at all until the Carnation Revolution after which rebels suddenly started to emerge, they already existed.

The independence movements were not representative, they were exiled intelectuals.
It is not necessary a more right wing government in the crucial part of the provisional governments (my apologies in advance if I misunderstood your words), just a government representative of popular will, which most of the provisonal governments in Portugal were not. Holding the islands was not difficult militarily, and creating autonomous governments was something that would be done in a few years as it occurred in OTL Madeira and Azores. And the model of Autonomy used for ultra-peripheral territories is quite empowering (there's a lot of competences that are decided regionally).

Also given that there were bombing campaigns by separatists in both the Azores and Maderia in the mid 1970s without any previous resistance infrastructure means there's definitely going to be some in both Cape Verde and São Tomé.

The separatist movements in Madeira and Azores were far-right groups created by (unfounded) fear of a communist takeover in Mainland Portugal and lost support as soon as normal constitutional governments were created and autonomy was implemented.