Poland cedes Danzig to stall for time

[Jackson Lennock]

The goal of appeasement was to stall for time while Britain and France rearmed. Meanwhile, even if Hitler got Danzig, he'd simply have made another demand because he wanted an excuse to start a war.

What if Poland agreed to cede Danzig as a means for stalling for time? There were six months between Munich and the partition of Czechoslovakia, for example. And six months between the partition of Czechoslovakia (and the Lithuanian ultimatum) and the start of hostilities with Poland.

If Danzig had been ceded on September 1, 1939 - and the Second World War hypothetically began in March 1, 1940 instead, following some other unreasonable German demand - what difference would this have made?

 

[History Learner]

The goal of appeasement was to stall for time while Britain and France rearmed. Meanwhile, even if Hitler got Danzig, he'd simply have made another demand because he wanted an excuse to start a war.

What if Poland agreed to cede Danzig as a means for stalling for time? There were six months between Munich and the partition of Czechoslovakia, for example. And six months between the partition of Czechoslovakia (and the Lithuanian ultimatum) and the start of hostilities with Poland.

If Danzig had been ceded on September 1, 1939 - and the Second World War hypothetically began in March 1, 1940 instead, following some other unreasonable German demand - what difference would this have made?

The effect on the 1940 Presidential Election could have the biggest impact, as the Fall of France cast a long shadow over that race.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

The effect on the 1940 Presidential Election could have the biggest impact, as the Fall of France cast a long shadow over that race.

It's plenty possible that FDR would run for a third term anyway. He'd already broken a precedent from prior Presidents to pledge not to run for a third term upon reelection, and seems to have been as much (if not even more) motivated by the prospect of his successor moving the Democratic party toward a more moderate position than he was concerned about who would lead the country during a coming war.

 

[monroe]

The goal of appeasement was to stall for time while Britain and France rearmed. Meanwhile, even if Hitler got Danzig, he'd simply have made another demand because he wanted an excuse to start a war.

What if Poland agreed to cede Danzig as a means for stalling for time? There were six months between Munich and the partition of Czechoslovakia, for example. And six months between the partition of Czechoslovakia (and the Lithuanian ultimatum) and the start of hostilities with Poland.

If Danzig had been ceded on September 1, 1939 - and the Second World War hypothetically began in March 1, 1940 instead, following some other unreasonable German demand - what difference would this have made?

The problem with the Danzig crisis is that regardless of an outcome, Germany is invading Poland. This of this like the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine- no outcome at the negotiation table was actually going to stop a war, because the point was no simply the disputed territory, but domination over the whole state (which was the purpose of Hitler's previous overtures to Poland to join up an anti-Communist pact- not to stand against Communism, but to have another controlled ally at heel). Even if Poland cedes Danzig on September 1st, Germany was still going to invade by then- the actual trigger of the war, remember, was a false-flag attack in Gliwice, far away on the southern end of the German-Polish border.

For the Poles, ceding Danzig and the Corridor (as was Hitler's demands- the former immediately and the latter under a 'referendum' by September 1940) is a raw deal no matter what- Danzig sits on the Vistula, an artery between Warsaw and the Baltic Sea. The Polish Government ceding Germany this sheer scope of economic leverage would almost certainly collapse the junta in Warsaw, although this could delay the wider war- if Poland falls to revolution, German invasion could be seen less as, well, an invasion, and more of a move to impose security for Germans living in the Danzig corridor and intervene as a 'friendly' regime to the country that just collapsed over giving them Danzig. In turn, this might lead to a more sluggish rearmament without the pressure of the phoney war- but also, the Soviets are still going to invade to uphold their end of the MR Pact, and Germany is also not going to not annex back the pre-1914 borders and beyond for lebensraum.

 

[Roger II]

The problem with the Danzig crisis is that regardless of an outcome, Germany is invading Poland. This of this like the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine- no outcome at the negotiation table was actually going to stop a war, because the point was no simply the disputed territory, but domination over the whole state (which was the purpose of Hitler's previous overtures to Poland to join up an anti-Communist pact- not to stand against Communism, but to have another controlled ally at heel). Even if Poland cedes Danzig on September 1st, Germany was still going to invade by then- the actual trigger of the war, remember, was a false-flag attack in Gliwice, far away on the southern end of the German-Polish border.

For the Poles, ceding Danzig and the Corridor (as was Hitler's demands- the former immediately and the latter under a 'referendum' by September 1940) is a raw deal no matter what- Danzig sits on the Vistula, an artery between Warsaw and the Baltic Sea. The Polish Government ceding Germany this sheer scope of economic leverage would almost certainly collapse the junta in Warsaw, although this could delay the wider war- if Poland falls to revolution, German invasion could be seen less as, well, an invasion, and more of a move to impose security for Germans living in the Danzig corridor and intervene as a 'friendly' regime to the country that just collapsed over giving them Danzig. In turn, this might lead to a more sluggish rearmament without the pressure of the phoney war- but also, the Soviets are still going to invade to uphold their end of the MR Pact, and Germany is also not going to not annex back the pre-1914 borders and beyond for lebensraum.

Followup to this: Given the stuff I've seen cited about how the Nazi regime was headed for economic collapse absent continued expansion, is there a way to viably stall the Nazis at all long enough for Hitler to get couped by Generic Military Junta #234543 that is more inclined to ditch M-R and just not rock the boat too much? Or is the best averting of WWII just Hitler going to war over the Sudentenland and failing miserably?*

*Or anything that screws over the Nazis pre-39 really, honestly a PoD where fascism gets completely discredited by the mid/late-30s would be very interesting.

 

[iainbhx]

The problem with the Danzig crisis is that regardless of an outcome, Germany is invading Poland.

This. The latest that Poland might gain some time over Danzig would probably be the end of June and I place a strong emphasis on the might. But then the war drums would start beating for Thorn or Bromberg or Dirschau.

 

[Roger II]

Ok this actually gives me the idea for a TL where (waves hand and summons the ASBs and butterfly nets) Haile Selassie manages to secure his hold on the throne a bit earlier and modernizes and FDR/whoever is PM of the UK at the time get talked into supplying arms to Ethiopia during the Second Italo-Abyssinian War.

 

[monroe]

Followup to this: Given the stuff I've seen cited about how the Nazi regime was headed for economic collapse absent continued expansion, is there a way to viably stall the Nazis at all long enough for Hitler to get couped by Generic Military Junta #234543 that is more inclined to ditch M-R and just not rock the boat too much? Or is the best averting of WWII just Hitler going to war over the Sudentenland and failing miserably?*

*Or anything that screws over the Nazis pre-39 really, honestly a PoD where fascism gets completely discredited by the mid/late-30s would be very interesting.

Had the military couped Hitler in 1939, they would have still invaded Poland.

Well okay, there are some options here, but the last serious chance for the military to coup Hitler and avert war was during the Debt Crisis in 1938, when Germany effectively defaulted on repaying its debts (turns out a man who was committing tax fraud would just commit tax fraud on a national level, and so would all his mates) and was only propped up by the Nazis holding everyone at gunpoint and threatening to shoot the first person who moves. By August 1939, the German debt was something insane like 120%, 150% of its GDP, had lost all of its major trading partners, and had an economy in which 10% of revenue was reliant on seized property- be this the plunder of conquest, or the theft from minority groups like the Jews. And that 'revenue' had effectively dried up. The invasion of Poland, when viewed through this economic lenses, was inevitable because the only way the German economy could function under the Nazi economic plan was through plunder of conquest (this is what happens when your ideology disregards everything but the race war).

Had Halder agreed with the conservative nationalists- who were still fascists, note- begging him to pull out his service pistol and shoot Hitler in the face... the simple fact was that whatever new regime emerges faces, at best, half a year before the economy totally collapses orders of magnitude worse than the Depression, or they invade Poland and plunder. And had Hitler been forced to take the former and wait out, the army would have just blown his brains out behind a barn and either prepared to fight a civil war or invade Poland.

 

[iainbhx]

Had Halder agreed with the conservative nationalists- who were still fascists, note- begging him to pull out his service pistol and shoot Hitler in the face... the simple fact was that whatever new regime emerges faces, at best, half a year before the economy totally collapses orders of magnitude worse than the Depression, or they invade Poland and plunder. And had Hitler been forced to take the former and wait out, the army would have just blown his brains out behind a barn and either prepared to fight a civil war or invade Poland.

Oddly enough I'm 96% of the way through a timeline where the POD is Elser succeeding, Nazi Civil War and a screwed economy leading to a long period of poverty. Just two more pieces to go (and a coda) and I'm horribly writer's blocked.

 

[Roger II]

Honestly the more I think about it the more we don't have enough TLs where fascism just gets completely discredited in the late 30s, like IDK the Spanish Civil War goes worse for the nationalists,Germany screws up in the fashion @iainbhx suggests or in a similar fashion, and Mussolini's colonial ventures turn out badly.

 

[Ricardolindo]

A scenario in which something like this could work is one in which instead of the Nazis, a military junta came to power in Germany. The German generals wanted Danzig and the Corridor back but would have allowed a rump Poland to survive. In addition, they wouldn't have annexed the Sudetenland beforehand, let alone occupied rump Czechia.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Honestly the more I think about it the more we don't have enough TLs where fascism just gets completely discredited in the late 30s, like IDK the Spanish Civil War goes worse for the nationalists,Germany screws up in the fashion @iainbhx suggests or in a similar fashion, and Mussolini's colonial ventures turn out badly.

That'd be a really interesting TL. Fascism is our big cultural bogeyman, from how we depict villains in fiction to the thing we say our enemies are; it's the thing reactionaries love to flirt with if they're "respectable" or cloak themselves in if they're open thugs looking to fight. All of that's blown up if fascism isn't the brutish force that it took the world to beat but embarrassing losers who wrecked themselves.

 

[Roger II]

That'd be a really interesting TL. Fascism is our big cultural bogeyman, from how we depict villains in fiction to the thing we say our enemies are; it's the thing reactionaries love to flirt with if they're "respectable" or cloak themselves in if they're open thugs looking to fight. All of that's blown up if fascism isn't the brutish force that it took the world to beat but embarrassing losers who wrecked themselves.

Yea, the question IMO is whether this is a total setback to conservative and reactionary politics generally or if said politics takes new forms. Do we get a doubling-down on monarchism or trad-nationalists (and maybe in this universe there's a stronger split between left and right nationalism)? Does this generally benefit left politics and maybe create more room to be willing to call out state capitalism?

 

[Charles EP M.]

I assume we'd get a doubling down on monarchism, Traditional Nationalism etc, a lot of talk of fascism failing because of its obsession with modernism and faking traditions instead of keeping to the old ways. Hitler forcing his youth groups over good old ones! I hear Mussolini had little respect for the King! All these obsessions with fancy planes!

 

[iainbhx]

A scenario in which something like this could work is one in which instead of the Nazis, a military junta came to power in Germany. The German generals wanted Danzig and the Corridor back but would have allowed a rump Poland to survive. In addition, they wouldn't have annexed the Sudetenland beforehand, let alone occupied rump Czechia.

They absolutely would have done with the Sudentenland, if they had a chance.

The Sudetenland was German Clay, occupied by large number of ethnic Germans who in the vast majority of the 1938 annexation were in the super-majority. Remove Czech civil servants, army, police etc and in for instance the Egerland, it would be about 98% German. There were a few 1938 annexed areas were the Germans were in the minority such as Břeclav/Lundenburg where the Germans hadn't been in a majority since the 1880's, but that was a very key railway junction.

Apart from the Free City of Danzig, there was nothing like that in the Corridor. Those towns and it was mainly towns that had been majority-German speaking in 1919 had seen a combination of Germans leaving and Poles coming in, there were a handful of places that were still majority-German, mainly small. 84% German Bromberg had become 70% Polish Bydgoszcz. The Corridor barely tenable as an ennexation, Provinz Pozen was ridiculous.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

If Poland agreed to a referendum in September 1940, that's all the better for the goal of rearmament no? The referendum occurs, the public votes overwhelmingly to remain part of Poland, Hitler cries foul, and in the meanwhile the British and French have had another year to rearm.

 

[Md139115]

Had the military couped Hitler in 1939, they would have still invaded Poland.

Well okay, there are some options here, but the last serious chance for the military to coup Hitler and avert war was during the Debt Crisis in 1938, when Germany effectively defaulted on repaying its debts (turns out a man who was committing tax fraud would just commit tax fraud on a national level, and so would all his mates) and was only propped up by the Nazis holding everyone at gunpoint and threatening to shoot the first person who moves. By August 1939, the German debt was something insane like 120%, 150% of its GDP, had lost all of its major trading partners, and had an economy in which 10% of revenue was reliant on seized property- be this the plunder of conquest, or the theft from minority groups like the Jews. And that 'revenue' had effectively dried up. The invasion of Poland, when viewed through this economic lenses, was inevitable because the only way the German economy could function under the Nazi economic plan was through plunder of conquest (this is what happens when your ideology disregards everything but the race war).

Had Halder agreed with the conservative nationalists- who were still fascists, note- begging him to pull out his service pistol and shoot Hitler in the face... the simple fact was that whatever new regime emerges faces, at best, half a year before the economy totally collapses orders of magnitude worse than the Depression, or they invade Poland and plunder. And had Hitler been forced to take the former and wait out, the army would have just blown his brains out behind a barn and either prepared to fight a civil war or invade Poland.

Genuinely curious here: were the Nazis spending so much in the expectation that they would use the results of their expenditures to steal the wealth of other countries and pay off the loans that way, or was it simply short-term myopia?

If it’s the former, it’s kind of hard to criticize the logic on practical grounds since, well, they kind of succeeded.

 

[Roger II]

Genuinely curious here: were the Nazis spending so much in the expectation that they would use the results of their expenditures to steal the wealth of other countries and pay off the loans that way, or was it simply short-term myopia?

If it’s the former, it’s kind of hard to criticize the logic on practical grounds since, well, they kind of succeeded.

Well besides "getting into a war they lost", like you are literally describing a pyramid scheme.

 

[Md139115]

Well besides "getting into a war they lost", like you are literally describing a pyramid scheme.

Well yes, but the thing about pyramid schemes is that the people at the top tend to make out pretty darn well, even if overall everyone loses money.

And Germany did go from being one of the worst economic basket cases of the entire Great Depression to funding a war against an increasingly large majority of humanity for roughly five years off the spoils of their conquests so something beneficial to the Nazis happened from doing that.

My question is: was that planned from the beginning or did they luck into it like they got ridiculously lucky on a great many other things in the war?

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Well yes, but the thing about pyramid schemes is that the people at the top tend to make out pretty darn well, even if overall everyone loses money.

And Germany did go from being one of the worst economic basket cases of the entire Great Depression to funding a war against an increasingly large majority of humanity for roughly five years off the spoils of their conquests so something beneficial to the Nazis happened from doing that.

My question is: was that planned from the beginning or did they luck into it like they got ridiculously lucky on a great many other things in the war?

They always planned to pilfer their way to success, but they rolled a lot of sixes in the process.

Annexing Austria got them foreign exchange reserves they desperately needed, for example. Pilfering Czechia had much the same effect. But the really big lucky outcome was how swift the fall of France was.