Philippine Revolution: What if the Hukbalahap Rebellion was successful?

[NotDavidSoslan]

After 1949, the Revolution became a Cold War proxy war, as the Huks were backed by China while the United States supported the democratic government.

The communist rebels drew their support from rural communities in Luzon and to a lesser degree the Visayas, due to their promises of land reform and the nationalisation of strategic industries, both of which were implemented by Taruc and are in effect until today. They used guerrila tactics against the US-backed AFP, resulting in heavy casualties to the latter and the capture of most of Luzon by the time the Huks won.

After 1949, the government of the People's Republic of China under Mao Zedong provided military aid, training and funding to the Hukbalahap, substantially strengthening their fighting capabilities, although much of this aid was intercepted before it could be used. The government of the United States, on the other hand, did not provide that level of aid due to its priority being the defeat of North Korea, which later developed strong ties with the Philippines; it was after the Korean War armistice when America provided a massive arms airlift of WWII surplus weapons to the AFP, keeping it afloat and a decent fighting force for over half a year, until the Philippine government's situation became insurmountable and it lost all popularity.

Land reform, which applied equally to all Philippine islands, was the communist government's most popular measure, and contributed to the cult of personality built by the Party around Luis Taruc.

After the revolution, a sizeable Philippine exile community developed, as many members of the traditional elite fled the country for the United States, Taiwan and Japan, with the support of the CIA, which sought to undermine a geopolitical foe. Several US politicians descend from these exiles, who attempted several unsuccessful uprisings, invasions and assassination attempts against Taruc.

In 1993, Taruc resigned from the presidency of the Philippines, and was succeeded by Benigno Aquino Jr.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Hardliners in the PCP criticized the moderation of the land reform, arguing for a Soviet model instead, but the cooperative policy still worked, and improved agricultural productivity and food security.

The property of landowners was confiscated without compensation and distributed to farm cooperatives, who were integrated into a national federation that exists to this day, albeit much smaller. Absentee and foreign land ownership was banned, and the government implemented a limit on the size of agricultural estates.

Luis Taruc developed a cult of personality that has lasted in the popular counsciousness to this day, with the president being referred to as the "Great Teacher" and artists mass-producing statues and portraits of him across the Philippines. Streets, buildings and airports were named after Taruc, although most of these names were changed after his death. In 1965, Taruc gave himself the position of Marshal of the Philippine Army after Douglas MacArthur's death, and started regularly wearing military uniforms in public.

Other policies taken after 1953 included nationalizing industry and banking, suppressing private small business, leaving the IMF, following a policy of trade protectionism, and implementing four-year national development plans in order to industrialize the Philippines. This succeeded and, by the time capitalist reforms were introduced, the archipelago was an industrial economy.

The NIAR still exists as a government agency, but is relatively powerless due to the state capitalist economy the country has followed since the 1990s.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

By the time of the invasion, the PPRA had not received any equipment from other socialist countries, and its air force was limited to a few dozen P-51s and noncombat aircraft.

Taking advantage of this and purges of the PPRA carried out by Taruc, the Eisenhower administration began planning a naval landing on Mindanao, where support for the Communists was the weakest; the Hukbalahap had never reached the island during the Revolution, and many in its Muslim population were expected to oppose communism. They secretly obtained British permission to use their colonial territory for military purposes, as the Conservative administration feared the domino effect the Philippine Revolution could have on Malaya and Singapore.

Ten months after planning began, the 4,800 guerrilas led by Ferdinand Emanuel Edralin Marcos, a WWII veteran and fanatic anti-communist, and under the direction of leaders of the banned Nacionalista Party, landed in the city of Maco in southern Mindanao. They had been reinforced by bombing raids conducted by eight B-25 Mitchell bombers against airfields in Mindanao; although three bombers were shot down by P-51s, they still damaged several runways, which were not fixed by the time the rebels had been defeated.

On 21 February, the Soviet Union condemned the invasion, and started providing military aid, in the form of small arms and supplies, to the Philippines; the PRC, which had been even closer to its fellow Asian socialist state, soon followed suit. While this assistance could not be used in time, it boosted the defenders' morale, and from that day onwards, the PPRA pushed back until the NLA surrendered and Ferdinand Marcos fled back to Kuala Lumpur.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Given the endurance of the Democratic People's Republic of the Philippines, these show elections continue to be held to this day.

The Filipino National Liberation Front was initially composed of the Communist Party and several other nominally agrarian socialist, social democratic and democratic socialist parties, although some of them have been created and disbanded.

Luis Taruc Thought is a Marxist-Leninist ideology that claims to be adapted to Filipino conditions. It supports proletarian internationalism and socialist patriotism, state-driven industrialisation, and freedom of religion, as well as Third World liberation struggles and an independent foreign policy.

After 1959, the President of the Philippines – Luis Taruc – was elected by an extraordinary session of Congress every four years, and although congresspeople could abstain or vote for another candidate, this was almost never done. During the Philippine War of the 1960s, Taruc cancelled presidential elections and served as his own minister of defense, concentrating even more power on his hands.

The current President of the Philippines is Rodrigo Duterte.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Foreign policy of the Luis Taruc administration (1955–1961)


Luis Taruc meets with Indonesian President Sukarno, 1960

After the unsuccessful landings in Mindanao, the Philippines shifted definitely towards the Soviet and Chinese orbit, becoming the Soviet Union's main and most reliable ally in Southeast Asia, and a close partner of Communist China.

After 1955, the Philippines began soliciting and receiving large-scale military aid from Russia, including tanks, jet fighters, artillery, and small arms. By 1960, the Philippines were the second-largest receiver of Soviet aid, and had developed a modern military that later faced that of the United States and its allies.

Relations with Maoist China were even better, as both countries were ruled by agrarian, Marxist-Leninist regimes, and Mao Zedong and Luis Taruc had similar goals, namely to turn their countries into industrial powers. Chinese technicians were sent to work in the Philippines, where they carried out various civilian and military public works ranging from military bases to schools; the Philippines were also on good terms with North Korea and North Vietnam, although the Sabah dispute made their relationship with Indonesia difficult, and there was a rivalry with the right-wing authoritarian South Vietnam.

Even before the USAF bombed Manila in 1964 in attempt to decapitate the regime, the DPR Philippines continued to have difficult relations with its former colonial power, the United States. While diplomatic relations between the two countries were not suspended, as the archipelago was formerly a United States protectorate, they were downgraded to the charge d'affaires level, and, in 1957, the United States imposed a trade embargo on the Philippines that lasted until 1996, when it was suspended due to Benigno Aquino Jr's reforms, and caused damage to the country's economy and Taruc's plans to industrialize it.

In 1955, the Philippines participated in the Bandung Conference, and, in 1961, it became a founding member and leading voice of the nonaligned movement; Taruc and Tito developed a close friendship and cultural cooperation between their two countries, which were ran in a similar fashion. During the Philippines War, the DPRP was supported by the Eastern Bloc, and Ho Chi Minh unified Vietnam in 1967.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

After taking power, General Cantillo implemented socioeconomic and political reforms that weakened the M-26-7 and led it to surrender in January 1960.

Basing himself on the national syndicalism of Juan Perón and nationalist militarism of Marcos Perez Jiménez, Cantillo strenghtened labour unions, which came under government control, and cracked down on the gambling and prostitution industries, turning casinos into schools and brothels into hospitals, and repressing the Mafia. However, historians believe he made secret agreements with members of organized crime.

The Popular Socialist Party remained illegal, and Batista's repression of communists continued. On foreign policy, Cuba continued to be an ally of the United States, although its relationship with Trujillo's personal fiefdom, the Dominican Republic, was hostile from the start.

Cantillo became popular as Cuba recovered from the revolution and living standards gradually improved, and by 1960, his government had an iron grip on unions and the media, which were docile instruments of the caudillo. His election was a foregone conclusion, and happened with 90% of the vote, against the nominee of the conservative Democratic Party, which represented sectors formerly supportive of Batista.

The National Reconstruction Front coalition was composed of the Authentic and Orthodox parties, which hated each other but lost their power with the military junta, and Cantillo carried much of their populist program. After his election, the Junta was disbanded.

In 1960, Fidel Castro was also elected to the House of Representatives for the Orthodox Party. After founding the José Martí Democratic League, Castro was elected president for the Party in 1969, in a snap election triggered by Cantillo's resignation.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

(The Sabah dispute did not involve Indonesia, so I got something wrong)

Between 1957 and 1961, the Philippines focused on expanding trade with the PRC and USSR in order to skirt the embargo, and boosting its military capabilities.

On the other hand, a wide variety of social programs were implemented, such as free breakfast for low-income schoolchildren, a minimum wage, farm mechanisation, free healthcare for the elderly and children, and a Philippine Housing Bank to build cheap housing. This made the DPR government very popular among the working class, although much of the middle class fled to the ROC and Japan, both of which were hostile to Taruc.

By 1973, Taruc was at the peak of his power and prestige, having repelled a full-scale invasion from the United States, and aligned with the Soviet Union and thrown Mao under the bus, but the war and strategic bombing from the SAC left the industrial base he had built in ruins; there was a lot to be done.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Throughout the 1960s, Cuba experienced an economic boom due to investment and aid from the United States, as well as the military government's social market economy policies.

Although issues with healthcare, education and housing were ignored, and Cuba's foreign debt increased, this boom allowed people in poverty to work stable jobs, and was based on tourism and Cuba's traditional plantation industries, although Volkswagen opened a production plant in Havana in 1962, bringing car making to the Caribbean island.

Cantillo was generally popular during that time, due to the economic development brought by his government, which it widely propagated through the radio, television and magazines. The media was censored and could not criticize the government, causing censors to find criative ways of bypassing censorship.

In 1963, Fidel Castro had his congressional mandate revoked for giving a speech criticizing the military junta. He was not imprisoned, but his political career was hurt and Castro had to practice law until running for Congress again in 1968; the following year, he took advantage of Cantillo's resignation to be elected President.

The following year, the president was reelected with 95% of the vote, facing token opposition from Democratic Party leader José Martínez. Elections during this period are widely seen as fraudulent.

Although issues with healthcare, education and housing were ignored, and Cuba's foreign debt increased, this boom allowed people in poverty to work stable jobs, and was based on tourism and Cuba's traditional plantation industries, although Volkswagen opened a production plant in Havana in 1962, bringing car making to the Caribbean island.

Cantillo was generally popular during that time, due to the economic development brought by his government, which it widely propagated through the radio, television and magazines. The media was censored and could not criticize the government, causing censors to find criative ways of bypassing censorship.

In 1963, Fidel Castro had his congressional mandate revoked for giving a speech criticizing the military junta. He was not imprisoned, but his political career was hurt and Castro had to practice law until running for Congress again in 1968; the following year, he took advantage of Cantillo's resignation to be elected President.

The following year, the president was reelected with 95% of the vote, facing token opposition from Democratic Party leader José Martínez. Elections during this period are widely seen as fraudulent.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

He knew the Phillipines could not fight two wars at once, and one against the world's strongest power, and thus decided to disengage from the south in order to focus on the bigger threat.

From January 1963 to September 1964, PPRAAF Ilyushin Il-28 bomber aircraft attacked British military bases in Sarawak, and PPRAN ships landed hundreds of infiltrators in the northern shore of British Borneo, where they fought a low-intensity conflict against commonwealth troops.

The Phillipines, which planned to unite the three Malay states into "Maphilindo", opposed the formation of Malaysia and joined Indonesia in order to try to stop it. However, Taruc was a more pragmatic and competent leader than Sukarno, leading the country to remain in the United Nations and not overly escalate its participation.

After a naval incident in the western shore of the Philippines that was staged by United States forces so that LBJ wouldn't lose reelection due to appearing weak on communism, the United States Congress passed a revolution approving military action against the DPRP, and strategic bombers attacked Manila in order to kill Taruc and his generals, failing to do so but damaging key industrial plants and military infrastructure. Then American forces landed in 1965, initially succeeding.

Before the Phillipines withdrew, the alliance appeared to be winning the conflict, although Taruc redirected several units to fight the American aeronaval landings in Luzon.

He knew the Phillipines could not fight two wars at once, and one against the world's strongest power, and thus decided to disengage from the south in order to focus on the bigger threat.

From January 1963 to September 1964, PPRAAF Ilyushin Il-28 bomber aircraft attacked British military bases in Sarawak, and PPRAN ships landed hundreds of infiltrators in the northern shore of British Borneo, where they fought a low-intensity conflict against commonwealth troops.

The Phillipines, which planned to unite the three Malay states into "Maphilindo", opposed the formation of Malaysia and joined Indonesia in order to try to stop it. However, Taruc was a more pragmatic and competent leader than Sukarno, leading the country to remain in the United Nations and not overly escalate its participation.

After a naval incident in the western shore of the Philippines that was staged by United States forces so that LBJ wouldn't lose reelection due to appearing weak on communism, the United States Congress passed a revolution approving military action against the DPRP, and strategic bombers attacked Manila in order to kill Taruc and his generals, failing to do so but damaging key industrial plants and military infrastructure. Then American forces landed in 1965, initially succeeding.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

The sinking of the Maddox made international headlines, including in Brazil, and led much of the international community to support the United States.

On 21 August 1964, a squadron of B-52s flying from the Okinawa islands bombed the Presidential Palace in Manila and several factories, ammunition depots and military bases in the capital, seeking to kill Luis Taruc and other Filipino government officials, and destroy the country's growing industrial capacity. He was in Cebu at the time, and no member of the Phillipine leadership was at the palace. The USAF did, however, cause serious damage to the capital's industry, and Philippine air defenses were unable to shoot down the bombers.

After returning to Manila, Taruc gave a speech on the radio, promising to defend the Philippines against the "unprovoked imperialist attack". He had previously survived at least five assassination attempts organized by the CIA and Phillipine exiles. The following month, the People's Revolutionary Army units participating in the Konfrontasi were reassigned to Luzon, where Phillipine intelligence expected an amphibious landing to happen, which it did, and was followed by another in Mindanao.

Soon, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand joined the United States invasion in the south.

On 21 August 1964, a squadron of B-52s flying from the Okinawa islands bombed the Presidential Palace in Manila and several factories, ammunition depots and military bases in the capital, seeking to kill Luis Taruc and other Filipino government officials, and destroy the country's growing industrial capacity. He was in Cebu at the time, and no member of the Phillipine leadership was at the palace. The USAF did, however, cause serious damage to the capital's industry, and Philippine air defenses were unable to shoot down the bombers.

After returning to Manila, Taruc gave a speech on the radio, promising to defend the Philippines against the "unprovoked imperialist attack". He had previously survived at least five assassination attempts organized by the CIA and Phillipine exiles. The following month, the People's Revolutionary Army units participating in the Konfrontasi were reassigned to Luzon, where Phillipine intelligence expected an amphibious landing to happen, which it did, and was followed by another in Mindanao.

Soon, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand joined the United States invasion in the south.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

While the war was an overall victory for the Philippines, the Batanes remained under US military occupation, and the industry built by the Philippines in the decade after the revolution was mostly destroyed.

A peer-reviewed study has showed the Philippines' industrial output did not return to prewar levels until 1983, when the DPR tried to take advantage of the decline of manufacturing in the United States.

The US Navy imposed a naval blockade of the Phillipines starting in January 1965, in order to stop the DPR government from importing weapons and equipment needed to continue the fight. This had the effect of stalling attempts at counteroffensives by the AFP for another three years, but did not otherwise affect its fighting capabilities, as the country had bought metric tons of weapons from the USSR, China and Czechoslovakia from 1955 onwards.

The Moro National Liberation Front, a right-wing anti-communist group that was nominally secular but effectively based on the Muslim population, rose up on 27 October 1964, counting on the support of the CIA; MNLF leaders painted their struggle as a "national liberation war against communism", while Luis Taruc and his government depicted the Front as a fifth column for the American imperialists. After late 1967, Maoist rebels opposed to Taruc's moderate orientation also rose up, but they had little effect in the war.

The failure of the push towards Manila emboldened the AFP and drew international attention, as well as support from young left-wing activists worldwide, but the subsequent failure of a counteroffensive (degenerating the war into one of attrition in the jungles) shocked the Philippines' supporters. After much of the heavy equipment of the AFP was destroyed and could not be replaced due to the blockade, the Manila Politburo ordered the military to shift towards guerrila tactics, with considerable success due to the jungle terrain.

Like during the American Civil War, the loss of much of the Phillipine surface fleet in 1964–1965 meant the blockade could not be breached for the rest of the war, and the new equipment obtained by the AFP was based on the capture of US and other countries' equipment, and improvised underground production just like in Japanese preparations for Operation Downfall. The Phillipine Air Force, on the other hand, was active throughout the rest of the war, with its MiGs regularly engaging USAF fighter-bombers and proving to be surprisingly effective.

The Brazilian government of Juscelino Kubitschek supported the United States until Operation Katipunan was successful, whereupon it shifted to neutrality; JK's successor Tancredo Neves established full diplomatic relations with the Communist Philippines, leading to threats of a military coup, although it only happened during Leonel Brizola's PTB presidency.

West of the Philippines, the Vietnam War ended with North Vietnam conquering Saigon and annexing the South in 1967, leading to Laos becoming a socialist state, while Cambodia remained under the rule of Prince Shianouk, who defeated the Khmer Rouge guerrilas with United States and Thai support.

In 1973, the rubber stamp elections held by the DPRP had the highest turnout in modern Phillipine history, as a sign of Taruc's popularity following his victory against the most powerful nation on earth.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

In October 1971, Taruc ordered that the flag of the Philippines be changed after the victory in the war.

At the Communist Party of the Philippines Congress the following year, the party leadership agreed on a vigorous program of national reconstruction after the devastation caused by the war. The DPR government soon began fixing damaged infrastructure and services, and urging Filipinos to donate anything they could for this task. By 1978, the rebuilding was complete, and the economy had returned to growth.

During that time, Taruc repeatedly denounced the continued US occupation of the Batanes, taking it to the International Court of Justice, which ruled the United States should have withdrawn from the islands. However, the Gerald Ford administration refused to withdraw, and the troops only left the Batanes in 1996.

The 1973 general election had the highest turnout by percentage of any general election in the Philippines thus far, but several elections have gotten more raw votes.

 

[NotDavidSoslan]

Former President Jânio Quadros and federal deputy for Guanabara Leonel Brizola tried to run, but their candidacies were rejected.

Quadros' presidential term he resigned from had not yet expired, and Brizola was a brother in law of President João Goulart, who carried out banking, education and tax reforms that faced little opposition but led to high inflation and threats of a military coup that did not materialize.

In the 1965 presidential election, former President Juscelino Kubitschek ran for a second non-consecutive term, using the slogan "The time of agriculture" and promising a greater focus on rural issues as President, by mechanizing agriculture and providing retirement pensions to rural workers. However, JK also addressed national issues by supporting Goulart's reforms, an independent foreign policy, and pro-business stance, which led many voters of the PTB, which endorsed JK to honor its alliance with the PSD, to vote for leftist Pernambuco governor Miguel Arraes instead.

The larger than life São Paulo politician, Ademar de Barros, ran for the presidency a third and final time, on a paternalistic conservative platform that called for an economy based on Christian values, and large-scale public works. His strongest showing was in his home state of São Paulo, where the other candidates in the running were from parties weak in the state, and he also won the federal territory of Rondônia, but Ademar only improved by 1% from the 1960 election.

In the end, Kubitschek was elected President by tying himself to Goulart and his policies, but followed a pro-business policy during his second term, which saw an economic miracle and the reduction of inflation. In 1970, Tancredo Neves was elected President, defeating Lacerda and Brizola.


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[NotDavidSoslan]

Juscelino Kubitschek's second term saw an economic miracle, allowing Tancredo Neves to win the following presidential election by the largest margin at the time.

During the second Kubitschek presidency, electoral reforms required presidential and VP candidates to run on the same ticket instead of different ones, as had previously been the case, and this norm remains to this day.

Given the climate of prosperity, Leonel Brizola's first presidential candidacy failed, and he only won 14% of the vote, while Carlos Lacerda's anti-communist, conservative campaign failed to gain significant traction with the general electorate.

In a competitive race, Brizola was elected President against Lacerda in 1975, only to be impeached three years later by the conservative Congress, as the 1920s military generation retired from public life during his presidency, making a military coup unlikely.