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Orban wins in 2006

OwenM

The patronising flippancy of youth
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So having been listening to a podcast episode on Hungarian politics ahead of the upcoming election, this struck me as an interesting POD. It was fairly close vote-wise and it's pretty plausible Gyurscany doesn't get re-elected and Orban returns to power four years ahead of OTL.
The podcast in question seemed to argue the loss kicked Orban's paranoia into overdrive, but I'm not sure how true that is and in any case as it pointed out there were already warning signs in his first stint. The more important point is he won't have the two-thirds majority to rewrite the constitution he's had since 2010 (in fact he'd be in coalition with the MDF) - and he'll have to take responsibility for imposing austerity post-Crash.
Presumably the MSZP's lies about the economy are still going to come out though, but likely without something quite as incendiary as the Oszod speech. But this still means that Hungary's late 90s and 2000s virtual two party system is at an end.
Overall I feel like this trends to Orban getting re-elected in 2010 against a disorganised opposition, but still lacking a constitutional majority and likely needing a coalition partner (and not a Potemkin one like the KDNP) - potentially I think you'd see Jobbik replacing the MDF here. This is obviously not very pleasant, but this also leads into him struggling far more to present himself as the centre and the opposition potentially being able to unite earlier, as well as not having to face the same barrier Orban's been able to put into the constitution OTL.
But what do people think?
 
So having been listening to a podcast episode on Hungarian politics ahead of the upcoming election, this struck me as an interesting POD. It was fairly close vote-wise and it's pretty plausible Gyurscany doesn't get re-elected and Orban returns to power four years ahead of OTL.
The podcast in question seemed to argue the loss kicked Orban's paranoia into overdrive, but I'm not sure how true that is and in any case as it pointed out there were already warning signs in his first stint. The more important point is he won't have the two-thirds majority to rewrite the constitution he's had since 2010 (in fact he'd be in coalition with the MDF) - and he'll have to take responsibility for imposing austerity post-Crash.
Presumably the MSZP's lies about the economy are still going to come out though, but likely without something quite as incendiary as the Oszod speech. But this still means that Hungary's late 90s and 2000s virtual two party system is at an end.
Overall I feel like this trends to Orban getting re-elected in 2010 against a disorganised opposition, but still lacking a constitutional majority and likely needing a coalition partner (and not a Potemkin one like the KDNP) - potentially I think you'd see Jobbik replacing the MDF here. This is obviously not very pleasant, but this also leads into him struggling far more to present himself as the centre and the opposition potentially being able to unite earlier, as well as not having to face the same barrier Orban's been able to put into the constitution OTL.
But what do people think?
You’d probably ultimately end up with a Hungarian political situation that’s more similar to something like Poland. As you said Orban would never get his 2/3rd majority, but the drive to implement anti-democratic legislation would still remain.
 
You’d probably ultimately end up with a Hungarian political situation that’s more similar to something like Poland. As you said Orban would never get his 2/3rd majority, but the drive to implement anti-democratic legislation would still remain.
Yeah the Poland comparison is probably a good one
 
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