No "Seward's Folly"?

[MAC161]

Thought I might've seen a thread about this already, but if not, here it is: What if the U.S. doesn't purchase Alaska in 1867?

The POD could be any reason. Ex: Seward dying before the Purchase goes through (though a successor or somebody else might still push it); minority opposition to the Purchase gains wider support somehow; greater controversy and demands for funding with Reconstruction dampens interest in the Purchase to the point of abandonment. If, due to any of these or other changes, Russian America still exists, what's the likeliest outcome for the region? I doubt Russia would sell to Britain, as the offer to the U.S. was aimed at avoiding the British Empire extending to the Bering Sea; on the other hand, Alexander II could end up seeing that as a fait accompli, and might make the approach if it the price was right and suitable concessions were granted elsewhere. Don't think France would be interested, given both distance and Russian resentment over its joining Britain in the Crimean War; not sure if cost would be a factor, too, for the Second Empire at the time. Japan is out, given its still-nascent modernization and the domestic upheaval just before the Meiji Restoration. Supposedly (apart from "Manifest Destiny" reasons), a fair percentage of the U.S. wanted the Purchase to improve trade with Asia (how exactly that was meant to work, I don't know); maybe a more aggressive effort to gain Pearl Harbor and greater trade dominance in Japan leads more politicians and everyday citizens to reject buying "Seward's icebox"?

Another point to consider: What happens with the Klondike and other Gold Rushes? If the Purchase falls through, and somehow Russia finds out about the deposits at Nome and/or Fairbanks in the next couple decades (unlikely, but not impossible; the decline of the fur trade could push trappers to range farther afield, and thus stumble across one or the other), then the financial reasons for a Purchase offer are moot. Of course, with the colony's remoteness from Tsarist control, the flood of U.S. & British prospectors and settlers is likely to happen anyway, with demands for annexation by either country probably not far behind. That raises the specter of a two- or three-sided crisis over the whole of the Upper PNW; whether it leads to war, I don't know. At the very least, there might not be a 50-star U.S. flag at the end of it all...unless, if some version of the Spanish-American War still happens, one of the regions (along with Hawaii, if that territory still goes the way of OTL) annexed in that conflict is eventually given statehood; my money's on Puerto Rico, but that's still a dubious prospect.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Thought I might've seen a thread about this already, but if not, here it is: What if the U.S. doesn't purchase Alaska in 1867?

The POD could be any reason. Ex: Seward dying before the Purchase goes through (though a successor or somebody else might still push it); minority opposition to the Purchase gains wider support somehow; greater controversy and demands for funding with Reconstruction dampens interest in the Purchase to the point of abandonment. If, due to any of these or other changes, Russian America still exists, what's the likeliest outcome for the region? I doubt Russia would sell to Britain, as the offer to the U.S. was aimed at avoiding the British Empire extending to the Bering Sea; on the other hand, Alexander II could end up seeing that as a fait accompli, and might make the approach if it the price was right and suitable concessions were granted elsewhere. Don't think France would be interested, given both distance and Russian resentment over its joining Britain in the Crimean War; not sure if cost would be a factor, too, for the Second Empire at the time. Japan is out, given its still-nascent modernization and the domestic upheaval just before the Meiji Restoration. Supposedly (apart from "Manifest Destiny" reasons), a fair percentage of the U.S. wanted the Purchase to improve trade with Asia (how exactly that was meant to work, I don't know); maybe a more aggressive effort to gain Pearl Harbor and greater trade dominance in Japan leads more politicians and everyday citizens to reject buying "Seward's icebox"?

Another point to consider: What happens with the Klondike and other Gold Rushes? If the Purchase falls through, and somehow Russia finds out about the deposits at Nome and/or Fairbanks in the next couple decades (unlikely, but not impossible; the decline of the fur trade could push trappers to range farther afield, and thus stumble across one or the other), then the financial reasons for a Purchase offer are moot. Of course, with the colony's remoteness from Tsarist control, the flood of U.S. & British prospectors and settlers is likely to happen anyway, with demands for annexation by either country probably not far behind. That raises the specter of a two- or three-sided crisis over the whole of the Upper PNW; whether it leads to war, I don't know. At the very least, there might not be a 50-star U.S. flag at the end of it all...unless, if some version of the Spanish-American War still happens, one of the regions (along with Hawaii, if that territory still goes the way of OTL) annexed in that conflict is eventually given statehood; my money's on Puerto Rico, but that's still a dubious prospect.

I think Russia would eventually acquiesce to a British acquisition of Alaska.
Russia couldn't have kept Alaska for very long, in my opinion, as most Russian settlers, who were few to begin with, had left with the decline of the fur trade and British/Canadian and, to a lesser extent, American settlers were entering it.

 

[MAC161]

I think Russia would eventually acquiesce to a British acquisition of Alaska.
Russia couldn't have kept Alaska for very long, in my opinion, as most Russian settlers, who were few to begin with, had left with the decline of the fur trade and British/Canadian and, to a lesser extent, American settlers were entering it.

When and how do you think Alaska might be delineated & named under British control? How might such an expansion impact relations with the U.S., and the latter's own expansion efforts?

 

[Delta Force]

If Alaska isn't purchased by the British Empire it could end up going the way of Texas or the Boer Republics. The issue then would be how the British Empire and the United States resolve the situation. Alaska could remain an independent state to avoid the issues that annexation would bring up, it could be placed under a condominium like the Northwest Territories were, or one of the two could press the issue. It could also bring up tensions regarding the Canadian provinces since there were proposals for peaceful annexation of some of them to the United States during the 1800s.

 

[Mumby]

i personally dont see the russians agreeing to a direct trade to the uk - if things get stretched out enough, things could get real interesting once the gold rush happens

 

[TheIO]

Assuming Russia is still holding it in 1875, and it still not looking like a land of many prospects to the Russian Empire, you could possibly see it included in the Treaty of Saint Petersburg with Japan - whether the new Meiji leadership would have the finances is up for debate, but there'd certainly be the political interest in showing that Japan's an important country.
OTL the agreement was Russia got Sakhalin and Japan got the Kurils - a potential trade & cash offer for Alaska takes it off Russia's hand and helps with friendly relations to their east too.
The interest there isn't so much in changes to Russia - 9 more years of Russian Alaska probably doesn't change much - but having a colony of their own and earlier than OTL is gonna have some decent ramifications for Japan politically, economically, and also in where the Japanese diaspora go. I doubt, for example, that there'd be as many Japanese in California when Alaska is the same country.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Assuming Russia is still holding it in 1875, and it still not looking like a land of many prospects to the Russian Empire, you could possibly see it included in the Treaty of Saint Petersburg with Japan - whether the new Meiji leadership would have the finances is up for debate, but there'd certainly be the political interest in showing that Japan's an important country.
OTL the agreement was Russia got Sakhalin and Japan got the Kurils - a potential trade & cash offer for Alaska takes it off Russia's hand and helps with friendly relations to their east too.
The interest there isn't so much in changes to Russia - 9 more years of Russian Alaska probably doesn't change much - but having a colony of their own and earlier than OTL is gonna have some decent ramifications for Japan politically, economically, and also in where the Japanese diaspora go. I doubt, for example, that there'd be as many Japanese in California when Alaska is the same country.

I doubt the difference would be very large, though, as Alaska is simply not an attractive place to live in.

 

[Hendryk]

I doubt the difference would be very large, though, as Alaska is simply not an attractive place to live in.

Climate-wise, the southern coastline of Alaska is not much harsher than Hokkaido, and there are lots of labour-intensive industries like lumber, mining and fisheries that could attract people from the home islands.

 

[Thande]

Would the US in the 1900s be alarmed at the national security implications of Japanese Alaska? One would assume so.

 

[MAC161]

Climate-wise, the southern coastline of Alaska is not much harsher than Hokkaido, and there are lots of labour-intensive industries like lumber, mining and fisheries that could attract people from the home islands.

This brings to mind an interesting idea: With at least a portion of Alaska (say, the panhandle and some parts to the NW) as a distant Japanese territory, and given the OTL oppression and discrimination by the Yamato Japanese after the annexation of Hokkaido, Sakhalin and the Kuriles, would some (or all??) of the Ainu people native to these regions emigrate to the "Alaska Colony" to escape such treatment, perhaps to the point of seeking autonomy or even independence?

 

[fluttersky]

This brings to mind an interesting idea: With at least a portion of Alaska (say, the panhandle and some parts to the NW) as a distant Japanese territory, and given the OTL oppression and discrimination by the Yamato Japanese after the annexation of Hokkaido, Sakhalin and the Kuriles, would some (or all??) of the Ainu people native to these regions emigrate to the "Alaska Colony" to escape such treatment, perhaps to the point of seeking autonomy or even independence?

In reality Karafuto was never incorporated fully into Japan despite the proximity and functioned more like a colony; I see no reason why Alaska would be treated any differently to Karafuto or be any more appealing for Ainu people.

 

[Ricardolindo]

This brings to mind an interesting idea: With at least a portion of Alaska (say, the panhandle and some parts to the NW) as a distant Japanese territory, and given the OTL oppression and discrimination by the Yamato Japanese after the annexation of Hokkaido, Sakhalin and the Kuriles, would some (or all??) of the Ainu people native to these regions emigrate to the "Alaska Colony" to escape such treatment, perhaps to the point of seeking autonomy or even independence?

I don't think there are enough Ainus for that.

In reality Karafuto was never incorporated fully into Japan despite the proximity and functioned more like a colony; I see no reason why Alaska would be treated any differently to Karafuto or be any more appealing for Ainu people.

Karafuto was a prefecture. I thought it was very integrated with the home islands.

 

[fluttersky]

Karafuto was a prefecture. I thought it was very integrated with the home islands.

It was governed by the Ministry of Colonial Affairs. Same as Korea, Taiwan, Kwantung

 

[Ricardolindo]

It was governed by the Ministry of Colonial Affairs. Same as Korea, Taiwan, Kwantung

Karafuto became a prefecture in 1907.

 

[SinghSong]

There's another possibility- if they still can't find a buyer, and it is still in the hands of the Russians by the time the Soviet Revolution takes place (perhaps with the Russians electing to keep it, and take greater steps to secure and/or even expand its territorial claims there, after TTL's discoveries of gold in the region), might we see Alexander Kerensky, after his Provisional Government's failed attempt to have the Romanovs sent to Britain (which was ruled by Nicholas and Alexandra's mutual first cousin, King George V), exiling/'evacuating' the Romanovs to Alaska to 'protect them from the rising tide of revolution', instead of to Tobolsk in Siberia as IOTL? Might we see a 'Kingdom of Alaska' coming into being in the aftermath of the Soviet Revolution, still ruled over by the House of Romanov, in a manner vaguely paralleling the independence and establishment of the Kingdom of Brazil? And if so, how much might Alaska's population be boosted by the influx of white Russian émigrés, after the White Regime's forced withdrawal from Siberia?

 

[Hendryk]

Might we see a 'Kingdom of Alaska' coming into being in the aftermath of the Soviet Revolution, still ruled over by the House of Romanov, in a manner vaguely paralleling the independence and establishment of the Kingdom of Brazil? And if so, how much might Alaska's population be boosted by the influx of white Russian émigrés, after the White Regime's forced withdrawal from Siberia?

Although it's possible, and interesting, to imagine a Russian Alaska that pulls a Taiwan, it emphatically would not under any circumstances ruled by the Romanovs, who by the time of their abdication were despised by almost all corners of society. And rightly so given Nicholas II's gross incompetence. The romantic idea one occasionally comes across in AH that there was any chance of a Romanov restoration after February 1917 needs to die, have its head cut off, its body cremated and its ashes dispersed for good measure.

Kerensky himself? Possibly. More likely some general or admiral hopefully with political sense. My personal bet is that sooner or later, this government-in-exile would drop the pretense that it represents Russia, and come to terms with the fact that it is actually governing a Republic of Alaska.

 

[SinghSong]

Although it's possible, and interesting, to imagine a Russian Alaska that pulls a Taiwan, it emphatically would not under any circumstances ruled by the Romanovs, who by the time of their abdication were despised by almost all corners of society. And rightly so given Nicholas II's gross incompetence. The romantic idea one occasionally comes across in AH that there was any chance of a Romanov restoration after February 1917 needs to die, have its head cut off, its body cremated and its ashes dispersed for good measure.

Kerensky himself? Possibly. More likely some general or admiral hopefully with political sense. My personal bet is that sooner or later, this government-in-exile would drop the pretense that it represents Russia, and come to terms with the fact that it is actually governing a Republic of Alaska.

When would it be necessitated to drop that pretense of representing Russia, though? Taiwan still technically hasn't done so to this day. And if it endures into the Cold War era, even if it's occupied in its entirety by the US and/or Canada after having picked the losing side in WW2 (would an enduring White Russian government-in-exile, governing over Alaska, not be entertained as a prospective member of the Anti-Comintern Pact? Hard to say...), wouldn't the Western World go out of their way to continue propping the 'Republic of Alaska' up, and supporting its nominal independence? They certainly wouldn't be inclined to hand it back over to the Soviets, that's for sure...

 

[Indicus]

If Alaska isn't sold to someone else, it'll simply be filibustered after gold rushes bring an Anglophone population the weak Russian government cannot hope to control. This might occur due to Klondike. If not, it'll occur after the Nome or Fairbanks gold rushes.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

I posted about the idea of a Japanese Alaska just over a month ago.

The Emperor's Icebox: Japanese Alaska?

Russia wanted to get rid of Alaska - pawning it off to whoever would buy it before somebody else took the indefensible territory by force. OTL the US was the country they sold it to, but many Americans thought it was a silly acquisition. What if Seward had blocked the purchase and Japan bought...

forum.sealionpress.co.uk

Japan would probably develop the port around today's Anchorage and settle the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. Japan focusing north could perhaps mean more development in Hokkaido and Northern Japan too. Other spots like Unalaska and Kodiak island could see bigger populations. If Russia's Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky could host 200,000 people, I don't see why a focused effort by Japan on its arctic holdings wouldn't mean larger populations in various places. It'd be a good penal colony potentially, but also good for fishing and whaling. Japan might develop a taste for Salmon sooner than OTL. Believe it or not, Japan didn't use much Salmon until some Norwegians pushed for it in the late 20th century.

The Alaska-Canada border dispute might go more favorable for Canada. Britain would be more willing to take a firmer stand against Japan than against Britain, plus Japan would care a bit less about the panhandle region than America did since Japan would be interested in western Alaska - which is closer to Japan. OTL Skagway might go to Canada, since it'd be the main port for getting to the Yukon's Klondike region.

Japan being more focused on Alaska could mean it fiddles around less in Korea and China. Or maybe not. Alaska could be a source of minerals, oil, and even some agriculture (shorter growing seasons offset by longer days in some areas).




Japan focusing its expansion north instead of South and West would be interesting. Historically, Russia was actually quite aggressive in asserting that many Ainu or Ainu-similar groups in the Amur River Valley, Kamchatka, and the Commander Islands were NOT Ainu out of fears that Japan would try to assert a claim to the territory.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I posted about the idea of a Japanese Alaska just over a month ago.

The Emperor's Icebox: Japanese Alaska?

Russia wanted to get rid of Alaska - pawning it off to whoever would buy it before somebody else took the indefensible territory by force. OTL the US was the country they sold it to, but many Americans thought it was a silly acquisition. What if Seward had blocked the purchase and Japan bought...

forum.sealionpress.co.uk

Japan would probably develop the port around today's Anchorage and settle the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. Japan focusing north could perhaps mean more development in Hokkaido and Northern Japan too. Other spots like Unalaska and Kodiak island could see bigger populations. If Russia's Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky could host 200,000 people, I don't see why a focused effort by Japan on its arctic holdings wouldn't mean larger populations in various places. It'd be a good penal colony potentially, but also good for fishing and whaling. Japan might develop a taste for Salmon sooner than OTL. Believe it or not, Japan didn't use much Salmon until some Norwegians pushed for it in the late 20th century.

The Alaska-Canada border dispute might go more favorable for Canada. Britain would be more willing to take a firmer stand against Japan than against Britain, plus Japan would care a bit less about the panhandle region than America did since Japan would be interested in western Alaska - which is closer to Japan. OTL Skagway might go to Canada, since it'd be the main port for getting to the Yukon's Klondike region.

Japan being more focused on Alaska could mean it fiddles around less in Korea and China. Or maybe not. Alaska could be a source of minerals, oil, and even some agriculture (shorter growing seasons offset by longer days in some areas).




Japan focusing its expansion north instead of South and West would be interesting. Historically, Russia was actually quite aggressive in asserting that many Ainu or Ainu-similar groups in the Amur River Valley, Kamchatka, and the Commander Islands were NOT Ainu out of fears that Japan would try to assert a claim to the territory.

Where did you read about Russia asserting their Ainu were not Ainu?