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No Assassination of Arch-Duke Franz Ferdinand

Joshuapooleanox

electoral asbestos
Location
Newcastle, innit
Pronouns
they/them, she/her
First POD discussion post on here, so let's make it a biggie.

Whether Franz Ferdinand goes home the first time he's attacked in Sarajevo, or the sandwich myth is true and Gavrillo goes to the bathroom after wolfing down a BLT and misses his shot.

Now, the alliances by this point have long since been established, but the tension in the air could lead to a war that could be vastly different than OTL.

One example that's been brought up before is a war over the Aegean Islands in late 1914, or some other event that might spiral out of control.

This could potentially lead to different alliances, different wars and there's the new timeline.

Go nuts, its vague so there's plenty of opportunities here.
 

joea64

Unabashed Edwardian Era fanboy
Actually, the story that Gavrilo Princip had just stopped off for a sandwich when the Archduke's car made its fatal wrong turn and stopped right in front of him comes from a research flub made by the producers of the BBC's "Days That Shook The World" series. While Moritz Schiller's establishment was undoubtedly a delicatessen (with a huge cutout of a wine bottle standing in front of it, moreover), there is no evidence that Princip made use of the deli's services, and in fact there is no evidence that the sandwich, as a food, was known in that part of Europe at that time.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/gavrilo-princips-sandwich-79480741/

Another urban legend that needs debunking: there's no hard evidence, despite what some websites say, that Duchess Sophie was pregnant at the time of her murder alongside her husband. She was 46 years old, and most women have either gone through menopause or are in the midst of the process at that stage of their lives. Also, she'd been under doctor's orders to avoid any further pregnancies after the stillbirth of what would have been hers and Franz's fourth child, a son, in 1909.
 

Joshuapooleanox

electoral asbestos
Location
Newcastle, innit
Pronouns
they/them, she/her
Actually, the story that Gavrilo Princip had just stopped off for a sandwich when the Archduke's car made its fatal wrong turn and stopped right in front of him comes from a research flub made by the producers of the BBC's "Days That Shook The World" series. While Moritz Schiller's establishment was undoubtedly a delicatessen (with a huge cutout of a wine bottle standing in front of it, moreover), there is no evidence that Princip made use of the deli's services, and in fact there is no evidence that the sandwich, as a food, was known in that part of Europe at that time.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/gavrilo-princips-sandwich-79480741/

Another urban legend that needs debunking: there's no hard evidence, despite what some websites say, that Duchess Sophie was pregnant at the time of her murder alongside her husband. She was 46 years old, and most women have either gone through menopause or are in the midst of the process at that stage of their lives. Also, she'd been under doctor's orders to avoid any further pregnancies after the stillbirth of what would have been hers and Franz's fourth child, a son, in 1909.
I said 'sandwich myth' as I knew it was probably not true. I was mostly giving ideas for how to avoid the assassination.

Any ideas for potential things that could cause the war, or effects as a result of not having one?
 

joea64

Unabashed Edwardian Era fanboy
As it happens, I've been discussing the subject with @Beata Beatrix , and there are a number of ways a major war could happen if Franz Ferdinand lives. I don't want to steal her thunder because she's working on her own scenario, but in brief, two key factors will be whether the next round of negotiations on maintaining the union between Austria and Hungary (the Ausgleich) succeeds, and whether the Triple Alliance holds, given that FF passionately loathed Italy and Italians (almost as much as he loathed the Hungarian aristocracy).
 

Roger II

Well-known member
Wasn't there the other factor of Germany setting itself a deadline of 1916 for any sort of war against I think Russia and/or other Allies*?

*WWI Allies that is?
 

Omund the Wooden-Leg

Chazadjin Marmaduke Brandybuck
Actually, the story that Gavrilo Princip had just stopped off for a sandwich when the Archduke's car made its fatal wrong turn and stopped right in front of him comes from a research flub made by the producers of the BBC's "Days That Shook The World" series. While Moritz Schiller's establishment was undoubtedly a delicatessen (with a huge cutout of a wine bottle standing in front of it, moreover), there is no evidence that Princip made use of the deli's services, and in fact there is no evidence that the sandwich, as a food, was known in that part of Europe at that time.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/gavrilo-princips-sandwich-79480741/

Another urban legend that needs debunking: there's no hard evidence, despite what some websites say, that Duchess Sophie was pregnant at the time of her murder alongside her husband. She was 46 years old, and most women have either gone through menopause or are in the midst of the process at that stage of their lives. Also, she'd been under doctor's orders to avoid any further pregnancies after the stillbirth of what would have been hers and Franz's fourth child, a son, in 1909.
Well, well, well. You learn something new every day.
 
If the Archduke survives presumably he succeeds Franz Josef on schedule in December 1916 - so does he attempt to rebalance the Austro-Hungarian 'dual monarchy' by abandoning the 1867 grant of semi-autonomy to the Hungarian state (led by its noble class)? Does he give local autonomy under the Emperor (as its king) to Croatia and rein in the Hungarian parliament 's control of its Rumanian minority in Transylvania, causing a Hungarian noble revolt? Will his modernised army win this clash and create a 'triple monarchy'?

Is Nicholas II capable of controlling his nationalist general staff and press in another Balkan crisis, such as yet another confrontation between Bulgaria and Serbia? Or does this cause Russia to send troops to back Serbia while AH backs Bulgaria to stop Serb meddling in Austrian-occupied Bosnia? is this war containable if Germany fails to intervene on AH's side, as it is not seen as a major test of German influence? If it is after 1917, Germany may judge the Russian army as too war-ready to tackle openly.

In that case, does the creaky but viable Russian state survive into the 1920s without a revolution, and the monarchy lasts until the unemployment of the Great Depression and lack of social security system causes a mass popular
outbreak? What if Czarevich Alexis dies of haemophilia in the interim - will Nicholas accept his brother Michael as heir if Michael insists on making his morganatic wife Empress, or have the imagination (unlikely?) to change family law and give his elder daughter Olga the throne to keep his disliked cousin Cyril off it?
 

Omund the Wooden-Leg

Chazadjin Marmaduke Brandybuck
Just imagine if Gavrilo Princip had not died of tuberculosis in 1918 and had lived a long life and saw the mighty forces of the Catatstrophe sweeping over Europe and the world frozen in the Cold War until the Eastern Bloc collapsed.
 

CaliGuy

Active member
If the Archduke survives presumably he succeeds Franz Josef on schedule in December 1916 - so does he attempt to rebalance the Austro-Hungarian 'dual monarchy' by abandoning the 1867 grant of semi-autonomy to the Hungarian state (led by its noble class)? Does he give local autonomy under the Emperor (as its king) to Croatia and rein in the Hungarian parliament 's control of its Rumanian minority in Transylvania, causing a Hungarian noble revolt? Will his modernised army win this clash and create a 'triple monarchy'?

Is Nicholas II capable of controlling his nationalist general staff and press in another Balkan crisis, such as yet another confrontation between Bulgaria and Serbia? Or does this cause Russia to send troops to back Serbia while AH backs Bulgaria to stop Serb meddling in Austrian-occupied Bosnia? is this war containable if Germany fails to intervene on AH's side, as it is not seen as a major test of German influence? If it is after 1917, Germany may judge the Russian army as too war-ready to tackle openly.

In that case, does the creaky but viable Russian state survive into the 1920s without a revolution, and the monarchy lasts until the unemployment of the Great Depression and lack of social security system causes a mass popular
outbreak? What if Czarevich Alexis dies of haemophilia in the interim - will Nicholas accept his brother Michael as heir if Michael insists on making his morganatic wife Empress, or have the imagination (unlikely?) to change family law and give his elder daughter Olga the throne to keep his disliked cousin Cyril off it?
You know, I've always wondered if an alternate World War I could have been sparked in either 1916 or 1917 in this scenario as a result of Franz Ferdinand failing to reach a mutually satisfactory solution with the Hungarians in Ausgleich renegotiations. This could become a World War if Russia will decide to militarily support the Hungarians and if France will decide to militarily support Russia in regards to this.

As for Nicholas II and the Russian succession laws, Yes, if Alexei dies without any surviving male children, then I would certainly expect Nicholas II to change Russia's succession laws to allow either Alexei's daughter (if he'll actually have one at the time of his death, that is) or Nicholas's own eldest daughter Olga to succeed him. As you said, Nicholas didn't actually want Cyril to succeed him--which suggests that he would try to avoid this outcome if at all possible.
 

CaliGuy

Active member
As it happens, I've been discussing the subject with @Beata Beatrix , and there are a number of ways a major war could happen if Franz Ferdinand lives. I don't want to steal her thunder because she's working on her own scenario, but in brief, two key factors will be whether the next round of negotiations on maintaining the union between Austria and Hungary (the Ausgleich) succeeds, and whether the Triple Alliance holds, given that FF passionately loathed Italy and Italians (almost as much as he loathed the Hungarian aristocracy).
Frankly, I suspect that Germany will try extremely hard to pressure Franz Ferdinand to avoid alienating the Italians. After all, alienating the Hungarians would already be enough of a challenge.
 

Joshuapooleanox

electoral asbestos
Location
Newcastle, innit
Pronouns
they/them, she/her
From what I remember the Turks/Greeks were getting more and more angry regarding the Aegean, an interesting POD would be if they went to war, and that was the event that exploded.
 

CaliGuy

Active member
From what I remember the Turks/Greeks were getting more and more angry regarding the Aegean, an interesting POD would be if they went to war, and that was the event that exploded.
Would Germany, Bulgaria, and Austria-Hungary side with the Turks while Russia, Serbia, France, and perhaps Britain as well would side with the Greeks? Also, which side would Italy be on in this scenario? What about Romania?
 
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