Mongol invasion of the Holy Roman Empire

[Ricardolindo]

After defeating Hungary and Poland, the Mongols were planning to invade the Holy Roman Empire but ultimately decided to withdraw. This may or not have been because of Ogedei's death. Either way, suppose they had gone through with an invasion of the Holy Roman Empire. How do things go? My guess is that the Mongols would devastate much of the Holy Roman Empire and leave, as this western campaign appears to have been a raid in order to fulfill Genghis Khan's will to reach the Western Sea, not a campaign of conquest. But what are the effects of this? What percentage of the population of the Holy Roman Empire would die? How much would a Mongol invasion set back the Holy Roman Empire?

 

[Ricardolindo]

BTW, many people question the efficiency of the Mongols in forested Europe due to the lack of grass for their horses. However, we must remember they were able to conquer the Iranian and Tibetan Plateaus, which have even less grass.

 

[Gary Oswald]

I think it's pretty clear that in an open battle the Mongols could easily destroy anything the Germans could throw at them but the combination of difficult terrain, big walls/fortresses and distance from their heartlands is going to mean its a slog with high causalities for the Mongols too.

There were good reasons why the Mongols didn't invade in OTl, and I don't think Ogedei's death was a major factor, and I suspect that any invasion of the HRE would be similarly aborted relatively early.

It's not that I don't think they could do it, I just don't see the motivation to continue once they're stuck in several months long sieges, which would happen relatively quickly.

That doesn't mean they couldn't do a huge amount of damage in the time they are there but I suspect you'll see a relatively short campaign which limits the area involved.

 

[napoleon IV]

Didn't the news of Ogedai's death reach the Mongols after they started to pull back, or am I misremembering?

 

[Ricardolindo]

Didn't the news of Ogedai's death reach the Mongols after they started to pull back, or am I misremembering?

That's why I said "may or not".

 

[Gary Oswald]

Didn't the news of Ogedai's death reach the Mongols after they started to pull back, or am I misremembering?

They withdrew back to the Ukraine prior to hearing about it. Sources at the time seemed to think they didn't launch another campaign west because of wanting to send troops back to Mongolia for the succession. It's not taken that seriously these days on the basis that not many troops actually came from Europe to Mongolia for the succession, but it's possible that Batu Khan wanted to keep his men close to the Persian border in case of possible civil war after Ogedai's death.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I think it's pretty clear that in an open battle the Mongols could easily destroy anything the Germans could throw at them but the combination of difficult terrain, big walls/fortresses and distance from their heartlands is going to mean its a slog with high causalities for the Mongols too.

There were good reasons why the Mongols didn't invade in OTl, and I don't think Ogedei's death was a major factor, and I suspect that any invasion of the HRE would be similarly aborted relatively early.

It's not that I don't think they could do it, I just don't see the motivation to continue once they're stuck in several months long sieges, which would happen relatively quickly.

That doesn't mean they couldn't do a huge amount of damage in the time they are there but I suspect you'll see a relatively short campaign which limits the area involved.

Considering the infighting in the Holy Roman Empire at the time, even in a short campaign, the Mongols could have done a lot of damage. Let's say they split their forces, with one attacking through Austria and the other through Pomerania. That could have been disastrous for the Holy Roman Empire and left it weakened for a considerable time.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I think it's pretty clear that in an open battle the Mongols could easily destroy anything the Germans could throw at them but the combination of difficult terrain, big walls/fortresses and distance from their heartlands is going to mean its a slog with high causalities for the Mongols too.

There were good reasons why the Mongols didn't invade in OTl, and I don't think Ogedei's death was a major factor, and I suspect that any invasion of the HRE would be similarly aborted relatively early.

It's not that I don't think they could do it, I just don't see the motivation to continue once they're stuck in several months long sieges, which would happen relatively quickly.

That doesn't mean they couldn't do a huge amount of damage in the time they are there but I suspect you'll see a relatively short campaign which limits the area involved.

The Mongols can't melt stone walls stereotype looks a little thin when you consider how well they besieged everywhere else. They were very adaptive and happily used native troops and ideas to take cities.

I prefer the idea they were miles from home, hitting terrain slightly less worth fighting over (trees, lots of trees) and at the end of the day Europe wasn't worth the fight.

 

[Gary Oswald]

The Mongols can't melt stone walls stereotype looks a little thin when you consider how well they besieged everywhere else. They were very adaptive and happily used native troops and ideas to take cities.

They struggled with long sieges everywhere. In Eastern Europe, in China and in Korea. They overcame that given time and motivation but my argument is that they won't have either.

If taking European fortresses is a major priority, yeah they could do it but it isn't and it wont be something they can do quickly, regardless.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I think the Mongols could reach the Elbe. Do you agree?

 

[claybaskit]

I do too.

 

[kratostatic]

I think there's a slightly different discussion of what happens if there's a more ingrained Mongol state in Eastern Europe proper. Let's handwave that Ogedei lives for another 15 years to equal his father, and there are no major disruptions to Mongol rule internally at this point. With all of this I find it hard to believe that Batu Khan or whoever wouldn't have made at least some fairly significant raids to the west in the following years, not least because where else are they going to go? There were raids against Poland and Thrace in the 1260s, after things had calmed down from sucession crises (and notably after Batu Khan himself had died). What's stopping Batu consolidating in the steppes after retreating, beating Hungary again in 1245 or so and forcing them to pay tribute a la Kievan Rus, then at least raiding heavily into the HRE?

Granted, extending Ogedei's life probably has other significant impacts not limited to Central Europe, given how the Mongol Empire seemed to just stop while they sorted everything out after his death.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I think there's a slightly different discussion of what happens if there's a more ingrained Mongol state in Eastern Europe proper. Let's handwave that Ogedei lives for another 15 years to equal his father, and there are no major disruptions to Mongol rule internally at this point. With all of this I find it hard to believe that Batu Khan or whoever wouldn't have made at least some fairly significant raids to the west in the following years, not least because where else are they going to go? There were raids against Poland and Thrace in the 1260s, after things had calmed down from sucession crises (and notably after Batu Khan himself had died). What's stopping Batu consolidating in the steppes after retreating, beating Hungary again in 1245 or so and forcing them to pay tribute a la Kievan Rus, then at least raiding heavily into the HRE?

Granted, extending Ogedei's life probably has other significant impacts not limited to Central Europe, given how the Mongol Empire seemed to just stop while they sorted everything out after his death.

Béla IV told the Pope in a letter in 1250 that if the Mongols invaded again, he doubted his people would resist and if the Mongols did gain a foothold in Hungary, they may, actually, have been able to conquer much of Central and Western Europe.

 

[Death's Companion]

I think the Mongols bleed to death.


For a start they really struggled against European castles which were strong and well designed as a rule but more importantly fucking everywhere. The Mongols were great at siege warfare, that's good, they will need to be for the dozens and dozens of sieges required to make headway for relatively limited gain whilst they eat themselves.


For another the response was pretty large OTL and it would only grow stronger the closer to Europe's major powers they got and even OTL tactically they suffered reveres on the open field when faced with heavy cavalry or terrain that did not suit their horsearchers. That's only going to be more pressing the further West they go.


Fodder and logistics are no joke. It slowed them down and outright ruined invasions elsewhere, its a factor that can't be waved away here.


All that combined then begs the question why they would bother. The other places they conquered were by and large fantastically rich. Why fight like hell for relatively poorer and more difficult to take and hold prizes on the very edge of your world?


They historically did return multiple times, it ended fairly disappointingly for them for all those reasons.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I think the Mongols bleed to death.


For a start they really struggled against European castles which were strong and well designed as a rule but more importantly fucking everywhere. The Mongols were great at siege warfare, that's good, they will need to be for the dozens and dozens of sieges required to make headway for relatively limited gain whilst they eat themselves.


For another the response was pretty large OTL and it would only grow stronger the closer to Europe's major powers they got and even OTL tactically they suffered reveres on the open field when faced with heavy cavalry or terrain that did not suit their horsearchers. That's only going to be more pressing the further West they go.


Fodder and logistics are no joke. It slowed them down and outright ruined invasions elsewhere, its a factor that can't be waved away here.


All that combined then begs the question why they would bother. The other places they conquered were by and large fantastically rich. Why fight like hell for relatively poorer and more difficult to take and hold prizes on the very edge of your world?


They historically did return multiple times, it ended fairly disappointingly for them for all those reasons.

I don't think the Mongols would bleed in a short campaign. I also think the fodder issue is exaggerated. The Mongols conquered deserts, mountains and forests.

 

[Death's Companion]

I don't think the Mongols would bleed in a short campaign. I also think the fodder issue is exaggerated. The Mongols conquered deserts, mountains and forests.

If its a short campaign then they can't win anyway.


The issue is really quite simple. If they go in for a quick raid then they run into an intensifying network of stone castles that can support each other.

To take these castles they need to slow down, encircle them, construct or transport siege equipment, subdue neighbouring castles so their supply lines are not in shreds etc. This adds to the time they need to stay in one place.


They stay in one place they simply eat themselves to death. They move on with these castles untaken then their outriders get cut to pieces behind them and their line of retreat is disrupted.


Like they didn't just walk through the rest of the world either, it took them decades to conquer some areas and the fortifications in Europe weren't largely wooden and mud brick stretched out over massive cities but included many small but well designed strongpoints scattered all over the place that still need dedicated effort to take but don't add much in the way of incentive to take.


The Mongols tried to invade Europe multiple times, they did worse each time as the novelty wore off and the Europeans adapted but they never actually succeeded in conquering the place. They just declared that they won and went home...for decades then tried again and 'won' and then went home and tried again later. But every time they'd show up. Fight some battles, headbut some castles and then withdraw.

Yes they conquered other places but they also suffered serious reverses in other places for similarly multifaceted reasons built around the local situation. Europe's situation was being militarized to fuck whilst being too poor to be really enticing. So every time they showed up and fought harder campaigns than planned without much to show for it the question always rose again "why bother?"

 

[Ricardolindo]

At the other place, @LSCatilina has expressed thoughts on this, that I agree with. If the Mongols had not wasted so much time in Western Hungary and Croatia, they could have invaded the Holy Roman Empire via both Pomerania and Austria. They could have devastated much of the eastern and southern parts of the Holy Roman Empire and leave it weakened for a considerable time. In such a scenario, the Polish states could be vassalized the same way as the Russian states. Hungary could be vassalized in a more informal way, like Bulgaria. The Mongols would play a much larger role in Central European politics than in our timeline.

 

[Death's Companion]

At the other place, @LSCatilina has expressed thoughts on this, that I agree with. If the Mongols had not wasted so much time in Western Hungary and Croatia, they could have invaded the Holy Roman Empire via both Pomerania and Austria. They could have devastated much of the eastern and southern parts of the Holy Roman Empire and leave it weakened for a considerable time. In such a scenario, the Polish states could be vassalized the same way as the Russian states. Hungary could be vassalized in a more informal way, like Bulgaria. The Mongols would play a much larger role in Central European politics than in our timeline.

Or the Hungarians could have crossed the Danube, conquered the Ottoman Empire, waltzed across Mesopotamia and made the Mongols a tributary state on the way to Japan.

 

[Ricardolindo]

If its a short campaign then they can't win anyway.


The issue is really quite simple. If they go in for a quick raid then they run into an intensifying network of stone castles that can support each other.

To take these castles they need to slow down, encircle them, construct or transport siege equipment, subdue neighbouring castles so their supply lines are not in shreds etc. This adds to the time they need to stay in one place.


They stay in one place they simply eat themselves to death. They move on with these castles untaken then their outriders get cut to pieces behind them and their line of retreat is disrupted.


Like they didn't just walk through the rest of the world either, it took them decades to conquer some areas and the fortifications in Europe weren't largely wooden and mud brick stretched out over massive cities but included many small but well designed strongpoints scattered all over the place that still need dedicated effort to take but don't add much in the way of incentive to take.


The Mongols tried to invade Europe multiple times, they did worse each time as the novelty wore off and the Europeans adapted but they never actually succeeded in conquering the place. They just declared that they won and went home...for decades then tried again and 'won' and then went home and tried again later. But every time they'd show up. Fight some battles, headbut some castles and then withdraw.

Yes they conquered other places but they also suffered serious reverses in other places for similarly multifaceted reasons built around the local situation. Europe's situation was being militarized to fuck whilst being too poor to be really enticing. So every time they showed up and fought harder campaigns than planned without much to show for it the question always rose again "why bother?"

Or the Hungarians could have crossed the Danube, conquered the Ottoman Empire, waltzed across Mesopotamia and made the Mongols a tributary state on the way to Japan.

No offense, but I think you underestimate the Mongols. Their second invasion of Hungary failed because after the first invasion, the Hungarians built lots of castles. In addition, unlike the first invasion, the Mongols didn't use heavy cavalry. I have no doubt that they could have devastated the Holy Roman Empire up to the Elbe.

 

[Death's Companion]

No offense, but I think you underestimate the Mongols. Their second invasion of Hungary failed because after the first invasion, the Hungarians built lots of castles. In addition, unlike the first invasion, the Mongols didn't use heavy cavalry. I have no doubt that they could have devastated the Holy Roman Empire up to the Elbe.

Yes the Hungarians reacted to the first invasion, states tend to do that. But like the HRE was no lightweight in this period and its fractured nature means that rather than just one enemy the Mongols have to face dozens or hundreds and most of them have castles. They also have to deal with large numbers of heavy cavalry that gave them a good deal of trouble during their first invasion.

I don't think its underestimating the Mongols to say that they will face the same challenges they faced OTL only against a stronger opponent. They struggled against European castles, they found knights to be something of a challenge on the right terms and they simply were not invested enough for a long and dangerous and expensive campaign.


The changes for things to go better for them and to conquer half a continent seem far more than the changes needed for them to do even worse than OTL where there were already close calls in the Hungarian campaign.