Malaysia has a Chinese majority at the time of independence

[Ricardolindo]

At the time of its independence, Malaysia wasn't very far from having a Chinese majority. What if it did have one? How would the Malays react to the possibility of being ruled by a Chinese majority? Would this timeline's Malaysian independence process be even more of a mess than that of our timeline?

 

[Ricardolindo]

@Tom Colton As you're Singaporean, you are probably the user of this website that best understands this.

 

[Tom Colton]

Would this timeline's Malaysian independence process be even more of a mess than that of our timeline?

In a nutshell: you think Malaysia is a mess now? Wait till you get a load of this.

This would’ve been the case IOTL by the way if the Bornean states hadn’t joined Malaysia—Singapore’s population density was just that nuts

 

[Alex Richards]

In a nutshell: you think Malaysia is a mess now? Wait till you get a load of this.

This would’ve been the case IOTL by the way if the Bornean states hadn’t joined Malaysia

I think Sarawak's the easier to keep out- does that still do the trick?

Is there a possibility of the Malaysian Chinese Association ending up as the initial governing party and then desperately trying to keep Singapore in at all costs?

 

[Tom Colton]

Is there a possibility of the Malaysian Chinese Association ending up as the initial governing party and then desperately trying to keep Singapore in at all costs?

I may be ideologically biased here but if Malaysia winds up still containing Singapore there’s essentially two poles it could head towards: ASB!Malaysia (Singapore with land space and natural resources?!?) or OTL Malaysia being Malaysia with a simmering Singaporean independence movement a la the SNP or PQ.

 

[Alex Richards]

I may be ideologically biased here but if Malaysia winds up still containing Singapore there’s essentially two poles it could head towards: ASB!Malaysia (Singapore with land space and natural resources?!?) or OTL Malaysia being Malaysia with a simmering Singaporean independence movement a la the SNP or PQ.

Just how fucked is 'Peninsular Malaysia only which has a Chinese majority but where the liberal wing of it breaks off to the opposition after a couple of decades and the Governing party believes the only way they can maintain power is by making sure Singapore's independence movement never succeeds.'?

 

[Alex Richards]

Also, very frustratingly the Wikipedia articles on the 1955 Malaysian election have the breakdown of the Alliance by component party on the main page, but not on the page giving the individual constituency results.

 

[Tom Colton]

Just how fucked is 'Peninsular Malaysia only which has a Chinese majority but where the liberal wing of it breaks off to the opposition after a couple of decades and the Governing party believes the only way they can maintain power is by making sure Singapore's independence movement never succeeds.'?

A massive exodus of (university-educated) Malaysian Chinese to Singapore and Oceania began after the 1969 riots and intensified in the 1980s—my own parents, both my aunts and all but one of my uncles on both sides included—and its knock-on effects are still being felt to this day; Singapore has been undergoing its own version since the 2000s, mainly to Oceania.

If Singaporean independence is strangled in the crib expect much larger populations of Aussie and Kiwi Chinese.

 

[Ricardolindo]

In a nutshell: you think Malaysia is a mess now? Wait till you get a load of this.

This would’ve been the case IOTL by the way if the Bornean states hadn’t joined Malaysia—Singapore’s population density was just that nuts

I didn't say that Malaysia was a mess, only that its independence process was a mess. Remember Singapore is the only country in the world to have become independent against its own will. It was expelled from Malaysia.
Regardless, even without Singapore, in 1960, Malaysia was 37% Chinese, not very far from a majority. Of course, some would argue that due to Malays having a higher birthrate, any Chinese majority would be short-lived. What do you think of that?

 

[Tom Colton]

Remember Singapore is the only country in the world to have become independent against its own will. It was expelled from Malaysia.

Technically speaking the United Arab Emirates lost its protectorate status entirely because of East of Suez and HM Government going “lolbroke”, but this is quite semantical.

I mentioned the Bornean states because all plans for Malayan independence up to a point included Singapore but not them—maintaining such a large Chinese population in Peninsular Malaya sans Singapore is a bit of a challenge. But as a bonus, this means no (or much lower chances of) Konfrontasi, which in turn has enormous ramifications on Sukarno’s fortunes.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Technically speaking the United Arab Emirates lost its protectorate status entirely because of East of Suez and HM Government going “lolbroke”, but this is quite semantical.

I mentioned the Bornean states because all plans for Malayan independence up to a point included Singapore but not them—maintaining such a large Chinese population in Peninsular Malaya sans Singapore is a bit of a challenge. But as a bonus, this means no (or much lower chances of) Konfrontasi, which in turn has enormous ramifications on Sukarno’s fortunes.

Regardless of the details, in your opinion, would a Chinese majority in Malaysia lead to a civil war?

 

[Tom Colton]

Regardless of the details, in your opinion, would a Chinese majority in Malaysia lead to a civil war?

If there was one I think the distributions would mean that they would lose very badly except in pockets in Penang, Melaka and Johor.

A revived Communist movement means that everything is on fire.

 

[Alex Richards]

Technically speaking the United Arab Emirates lost its protectorate status entirely because of East of Suez and HM Government going “lolbroke”, but this is quite semantical.

I mentioned the Bornean states because all plans for Malayan independence up to a point included Singapore but not them—maintaining such a large Chinese population in Peninsular Malaya sans Singapore is a bit of a challenge. But as a bonus, this means no (or much lower chances of) Konfrontasi, which in turn has enormous ramifications on Sukarno’s fortunes.

So do we see Indonesia just roll up the north of Borneo, or do they accept the principle of Sarawak etc. for the time being and...

Wait.

No ignore me, I just remembered Timor-leste, West Papua and Aceh.

 

[Hendryk]

I may be ideologically biased here but if Malaysia winds up still containing Singapore there’s essentially two poles it could head towards: ASB!Malaysia (Singapore with land space and natural resources?!?) or OTL Malaysia being Malaysia with a simmering Singaporean independence movement a la the SNP or PQ.

I went with the first option in WIAF: Malaysia retains Singapore but doesn't absorb Sarawak. The Chinese majority solidifies its demographic dominance by attracting emigrants from China. It haven't thought it through beyond that, but chronic interethnic tensions with the Malay plurality are a given.

Flocculencio wrote a vignette about that alternate Malaysia back in the day.

 

[Tom Colton]

So do we see Indonesia just roll up the north of Borneo, or do they accept the principle of Sarawak etc. for the time being and...

Wait.

No ignore me, I just remembered Timor-leste, West Papua and Aceh.

The idea that the Malay Archipelago currently exists in the best of all possible worlds is horrifying in ways I’ve never enunciated before.

 

[Ricardolindo]

If there was one I think the distributions would mean that they would lose very badly except in pockets in Penang, Melaka and Johor.

A revived Communist movement means that everything is on fire.

In your opinion, what's more likely: A civil war between Malays and Chinese or the Chinese majority managing to form a government in the elections? If the latter, how much of a chance does Lee Kuan Yew have of becoming Malaysian Prime-Minister?