This all strikes me as incredibly deterministic to dismiss polling out of hand due to weird results it possibly causes. Reagan’s outlier polls ended up embodying his later polling averages, same with Obama in 2008. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to humor a scenario in which when polling averages have them already down by 15 points the Tories are completely destroyed after losing the Falklands and being revealed as having covered up serial child abuse. This poli-sci logic is very “as goes Missouri so goes the nation”