Königsberg/Kaliningrad Lease

[Simon]

So this little piece of fuckery reminded me of an idea I had a while back regarding the Russian Kaliningrad oblast. For one reason or another the Western Allies push back a bit more with regards to the annexation of Königsberg by the USSR, as a compromise instead of going straight to the Soviets the area is ceded to Poland who immediately sign an agreement leasing it to them for 50 years. The general feeling is that 50 years kicks the can down the road far enough and from the Soviet point of view since Poland is likely going to be under their influence they'll have no trouble convincing them to renew the lease.

The only slight problem is that when 50 years roll around in 1995 the USSR has recently collapsed, the Russian Federation is shaky, and I can't see the Poles being in much mood to accommodate. So what happens? The Russian military having to leave, with say a one-off 5 year extension being negotiated to allow time, is a given. The civilians however are a complication. With a population of around 900,000 even if a large part of that was military personnel and their families that still leaves several hundreds of thousands of people. Are the Poles hardline and they have to leave, do they get some sort of Polish resident alien status, or something else? How fast demographics might change, local economic and political situations etc. develop could be interesting.

 

[I Saw A Red Sky]

Could be another lovely case of post-Cold War ethnic cleansing but as always with these type of scenarios not sure why the Soviets or Poles would agree to something like this in the first place. Seems like some diplomat's fever dream.

 

[History Learner]

The only slight problem is that when 50 years roll around in 1995 the USSR has recently collapsed, the Russian Federation is shaky, and I can't see the Poles being in much mood to accommodate. So what happens? The Russian military having to leave, with say a one-off 5 year extension being negotiated to allow time, is a given. The civilians however are a complication. With a population of around 900,000 even if a large part of that was military personnel and their families that still leaves several hundreds of thousands of people. Are the Poles hardline and they have to leave, do they get some sort of Polish resident alien status, or something else? How fast demographics might change, local economic and political situations etc. develop could be interesting.

The Russians laugh in SS-18 and dare the Poles to make them leave. This might very well derail the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe too.

 

[Charles EP M.]

The civilians however are a complication. With a population of around 900,000 even if a large part of that was military personnel and their families that still leaves several hundreds of thousands of people. Are the Poles hardline and they have to leave, do they get some sort of Polish resident alien status, or something else? How fast demographics might change, local economic and political situations etc. develop could be interesting.

Probably get some fudging on it, where Poland allows people to stay under some special just-for-them immigration setup? Russia's a mess at the time but they're still the big country nearby you trade with & don't want to fight with.

 

[fluttersky]

The Russians in Poland probably have a similar status to the ones in Latvia/Estonia in reality.

 

[Elektronaut]

I'm sorry, why are you assuming there would be any extension of the lease in the event it hadn't been renegotiated by the time of the fall of the USSR? The Russians were out of the former East Germany by 1994, no way are the Poles going to give the Russians more time than the Germans did to pack up and leave.

That said, this really doesn't feel like it would be left by the Soviets/Russians until the last five years to re-negotiate. There'd probably be a re-negotiation at some time in the eighties at the latest. If there's another thirty years' extension - say - then this is obviously going to be something Putin just abrogates at some point.

It's also quite likely that the Soviets just try to have it ceded to them outright at some point during the Cold War.