Jupiter Descendant: WI Macron doesnt run?

[Bolt451]

How do folks think the 2017 election would have gone if Macron hadn't run for president? Would folks reluctantly rally around Fillon? How would the socialists fare?

 

[Charles EP M.]

Looking at the electorate data in Round One, a lot of Macron's first-round votes came from people who considered themselves various strips of left-wing or centre, with a chunk of Rather Right Wing - most right-wing votes go to Fillon or Le Pen. ("Neither Left Nor Right", that's a Le Pen one too) From that, I think if Macron wasn't around then more votes will go to left-wing candidates than to Fillon - and due to Fillon's scandals, maybe not much of the right go to him.

So you could get a second-round between Melenchon and Le Pen. And then it comes down to how many right-wing and right-leaning voters will come out for Melenchon or stay home, and how many who didn't vote Le Pen OTL decide she's the lesser evil after all.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

I would think the Center to Center-Left voters who voted for Macron historically would mostly vote for Hamon, not Melanchon. When the Centrist/Blairite Valls lost in an upset in the Socialist primary, he endorsed Macron over the Socialist nominee - nuking the party's prospects. Without Macron in the race, he sticks with his promise and backs Benoit Hamon. Melanchon's rise basically tracked Hamon's decline in the polls, so my guess is the French left vote would be more split, or Hamon might be the main left-wing candidate.

I don't see why right wing backers of Macron would vote for Le Pen. She was right wing culturally but as a nationalist has many left-wing economic positions. That seems like the opposite side of the spectrum from the mostly-liberal-socially but pro-business Macron. Fillon seems closer to what a self-described right wing Macron voter would go for.

The second round could plausibly be Hamon and Fillon.

 

[Nyvis]

Looking at the electorate data in Round One, a lot of Macron's first-round votes came from people who considered themselves various strips of left-wing or centre, with a chunk of Rather Right Wing - most right-wing votes go to Fillon or Le Pen. ("Neither Left Nor Right", that's a Le Pen one too) From that, I think if Macron wasn't around then more votes will go to left-wing candidates than to Fillon - and due to Fillon's scandals, maybe not much of the right go to him.

So you could get a second-round between Melenchon and Le Pen. And then it comes down to how many right-wing and right-leaning voters will come out for Melenchon or stay home, and how many who didn't vote Le Pen OTL decide she's the lesser evil after all.

I think you're right about Macron cribbing from the center left but those votes are more likely to stick with the PS than rally to Mélenchon if they lack an outlet. Valls probably doesn't blow up as dramatically without Macron around to show there's a place to rally the defeated right wing of the PS.

And Macron's right definitely votes Fillon in that situation.

My expectation is that Hamon still looks too shaky to rally the left, even with less PS defections, and him and Mélenchon end up the bottom of the top 4, with Fillon pulling a very unconvincing win against Le Pen.

Things probably look a lot better for the left in 2022 though.

I don't see why right wing backers of Macron would vote for Le Pen. She was right wing culturally but as a nationalist has many left-wing economic positions. That seems like the opposite side of the spectrum from the mostly-liberal-socially but pro-business Macron. Fillon seems closer to what a self-described right wing Macron voter would go for.

What keeps traditional right wing voters away from Le Pen isn't "left wing economic positions" because she really has none of those when you actually look at the program (think Trump, it's basically the same economic positioning). What does it is the populism the RN deploys to make poorer voters think they have those positions, which is already too far for a lot of hardened right wingers, no matter how thin the committment, as well as the Euroskepticism. It's the "lower class right wing" versus "upper class right wing", in a way. Not that Le Pen herself is lower class, but her target audience is.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

What keeps traditional right wing voters away from Le Pen isn't "left wing economic positions" because she really has none of those when you actually look at the program (think Trump, it's basically the same economic positioning). What does it is the populism the RN deploys to make poorer voters think they have those positions, which is already too far for a lot of hardened right wingers, no matter how thin the committment, as well as the Euroskepticism. It's the "lower class right wing" versus "upper class right wing", in a way. Not that Le Pen herself is lower class, but her target audience is.

For the most part, I don't see how what you're saying is all that different from what I said. People's ideological dispositions and policy views can reflect their economic class. People's ideological dispositions and policy views can be a product of their class interest.

And yeah, Le Pen definitely has a smathering of what have historically been called left-wing economic positions. Opposition to pension reform, protectionism, increased social spending, opposition to privatization, separation of retail and investment banking, opposition to free flow of capital, etc. In a bunch of ways it's a conservative (status-quo-oriented) bundle of left of center policies that don't require active advancement of the broader left-wing cause, but that doesn't make them not left of center. Wanting to partly nationalize and restructure the banking system seems left to me. Wanting to nationalize the highways in a country where almost 3/4 are private is a left position. And whether or not she actually believes her positions, as you say, is sort of irrelevant. What matters is that she uses them to signal to voters, and the right-of-center voters who voted for Macron don't like these positions and don't like her other positions, so they would probably vote for Fillon.

And to be clear, I am NOT trying to characterize Le Pen as a left-wing figure. Wanting to privatize public broadcasting definitely isn't a left position. Wanting to cut corporate taxes isn't a left position. More welfare scrutiny isn't a left position. My point is that her economic positions largely aren't the ones that really appeal to the right of center voters who voted for Macron, and what right of center economic positions she does have aren't going to outweigh the other things about her (anti-EU, anti-NATO, nationalism, bigotry, etc.) that a right of center Macron voter doesn't like about her.

 

[Nyvis]

For the most part, I don't see how what you're saying is all that different from what I said. People's ideological dispositions and policy views can reflect their economic class. People's ideological dispositions and policy views can be a product of their class interest.

And yeah, Le Pen definitely has a smathering of what have historically been called left-wing economic positions. Opposition to pension reform, protectionism, increased social spending, opposition to privatization, separation of retail and investment banking, opposition to free flow of capital, etc. In a bunch of ways it's a conservative (status-quo-oriented) bundle of left of center policies that don't require active advancement of the broader left-wing cause, but that doesn't make them not left of center. Wanting to partly nationalize and restructure the banking system seems left to me. Wanting to nationalize the highways in a country where almost 3/4 are private is a left position. And whether or not she actually believes her positions, as you say, is sort of irrelevant. What matters is that she uses them to signal to voters, and the right-of-center voters who voted for Macron don't like these positions and don't like her other positions, so they would probably vote for Fillon.

And to be clear, I am NOT trying to characterize Le Pen as a left-wing figure. Wanting to privatize public broadcasting definitely isn't a left position. Wanting to cut corporate taxes isn't a left position. More welfare scrutiny isn't a left position. My point is that her economic positions largely aren't the ones that really appeal to the right of center voters who voted for Macron, and what right of center economic positions she does have aren't going to outweigh the other things about her (anti-EU, anti-NATO, nationalism, bigotry, etc.) that a right of center Macron voter doesn't like about her.

It's very hard to be more right wing than neoliberalism economically (without falling into meme tier American right-libertarianism).

But in a lot of ways, this is a return to the Gaullist guided economy consensus. A lot of French state interventionism in the economy wasn't built by our left, especially when it never deals with questions of worker power or union involvement. A lot of her positionment is about class as an aesthetic too (a lot like Trump, or Boris Johnson), and in France that remains a turn off for a lot of right wing upper class voters. That also explains why Zemmour (who represented the far right without lower class aesthetics) managed to score voters without reducing the RN share much.

You're definitely right about the appeal. Those people would definitely vote Fillon if they can, though in a hypothetical RN vs LFI vote they'd nearly all rally to the far right.

So yeah we're not really disagreeing on the voter dynamics. I just get reflexively defensive about depiction of far right populism as left wing and their track record about keeping to it in office is very bad. Thanks for clarifying.