John Major resigns in 1995?

[Torten]

In 1995, John Major resigned as Tory leader in order to force his critics in the party to 'put up or shut up.' This proved a success for Major, who beat John Redwood by a large margin in a vote of Tory MP's, and survived as Tory leader until after the 1997 election.

But Major set himself a target of 215 votes, which he only just met, getting 218 votes. Say Major only got about 210 votes, and decided to go through on his threat.

Would Redwood have managed to do what Heseltine failed to do in 1990 and won the second round vote, or would Portillo or Heseltine won the contest?

And what kind of impact would this have had on the 1997 election - was there a possibility of anything else other than a landslide defeat to the Labour party?

 

[Time Enough]

Would Redwood have managed to do what Heseltine failed to do in 1990 and won the second round vote, or would Portillo or Heseltine won the contest?

Probably not Redwood, just because he’s a bit of a character vacuum (his better result in 97’ is definitely down to the lack of other candidates), I definitely see Portillo winning if Redwood taps out or Heseltine winning if Redwood and Portillo decide to compete.

And what kind of impact would this have had on the 1997 election - was there a possibility of anything else other than a landslide defeat to the Labour party?

I think Labour still wins in a landslide, just the difference is what kind of landslide, could be that Labour gains a hundred seats or something which could have different impacts later on with things like Tory leaders and stuff like Iraq.

 

[Charles EP M.]

The Tories still lose badly to Labour, but the Conservatives will now be wondering "would we have lost fewer seats if we hadn't had this mess" and if Portillo or Heseltine win, it hurts their legacy as their big careers end in failure (they won't have had the time to achieve much of a legacy). That's going to have a big effect on how the Tories work for a generation. "Tories are regicidal" has been taken as a fact of life, a point of pride, but what happens if nobbling the leader is seen as handing Blair a hundred seats? You want to mutter darkly about Hague here, you're going to get slapped down: "look what '95 did."

I wonder what it does for Major? His "put up or shut up" will have failed and in doing so, is seen to have crippled the party. Does he become a 90s Cameron?

 

[Time Enough]

Portillo or Heseltine win, it hurts their legacy as their big careers end in failure (they won't have had the time to achieve much of a legacy).

An interesting thing to ponder is that if one or the other gets in then it helps the opposing side after 97’, if Portillo gets in, then the Thatcherites will likely be seen as the ones to have torpedoed the One Nation tenure of Major and someone like Dorrell or Clarke is seen as someone who can write the wrongs. If it’s Hezza then the Thatcherites can say that it’s the One Nation Europhiles who ruined 97’ and that someone like Hague should be the one.

It does seem like this could be the setting in which after a bad 2001 (who ever become’s Tory leader in 97’ will likely have a poisoned chalice) someone like Francis Maude would be able do decently given Portillo would still probably be seen as the Thatcherite storm trooper and folks like Clarke probably ruined over Europe.

I wonder what it does for Major? His "put up or shut up" will have failed and in doing so, is seen to have crippled the party. Does he become a 90s Cameron?

Probably, though I think you could see a lot of revisionists promoting the belief that Major was incredibly misjudged. Hell unlike Cameron it’s probably more likely that Major could reinvent himself because putting yourself on the line to ensure your Premiership survives is a bit easier to spin than ‘I fought a referendum that I lost narrowly by and decided to not bother sticking the landing’.

 

[Elektronaut]

Redwood was a device to get Major out, a stalking horse. If Major had resigned then Howard and Portillo would certainly have declared and both were more credible on the right than Redwood.

Heseltine and Portillo are the most likely choices. Either would almost certainly do better than Major at the next election, who was a complete busted flush by 1995; while Heseltine would create similar sorts of problems with the right to Major, unlike Major he actually had a settled worldview and a political programme, and a standing with the electorate. He also always had a certain amount of cachet on the right of the party, so wouldn't have been as lethal as Ken would have been.

Portillo would also have lead, albeit in a direction away from which the country was going. But he wouldn't have been held hostage over the Euro by Clarke like Major was, which would have resulted in a much more united party for the rest of the parliament. IOTL the Tories went into the election with an open policy on the Euro - "negotiate and decide" - which flew in the face of party opinion, Tory voters, and public opinion - resulting in over a hundred PPCs, including a certain David Cameron, feeling they had to distance themselves from that policy.

Of course, no-one would have a looking-glass on our timeline, so I expect you would get some people arguing Major would have done better. Given the position the Tories were very obviously in by 1995, I don't think that would have convinced many people though.