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Jeb Bush runs in 2012

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Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
Jeb Bush's best year to be elected was probably 2012. By 2016, he had been out of politics for too long. So, say he ran in 2012. Could he get the nomination? If so, does he have any chances of defeating Obama or does his surname make him lose by a wider margin than Romney did?
 
d32123 said:
The problem is that 2012 was way too soon after his brother's presidency. 2016 probably was too, but 2012 definitely was.
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I know that but, as I said, by 2016, Jeb had been out of electoral politics for too long. I think he could get the nomination in 2012 but I don't see him winning the general election.
 
Ricardolindo said:
I know that but, as I said, by 2016, Jeb had been out of electoral politics for too long. I think he could get the nomination in 2012 but I don't see him winning the general election.
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Well the field was very weak in 2012 so maybe if Romney doesn't run and he's up against the Herman Cains and Rick Santorums of the world. But I think even Republicans were ready to move on from the Bushes by that point. Romney won the nomination by a combination of establishment support and taking the hardest line on immigration. Jeb would get the former but could never claim the latter.
 
d32123 said:
Well the field was very weak in 2012 so maybe if Romney doesn't run and he's up against the Herman Cains and Rick Santorums of the world. But I think even Republicans were ready to move on from the Bushes by that point. Romney won the nomination by a combination of establishment support and taking the hardest line on immigration. Jeb would get the former but could never claim the latter.
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On immigration, Jeb is to the right of Romney.
 
I'm not entirely sure Jeb Bush's hype as The One That Should Have Been President would survive contact with reality four years before it perished upon contact IOTL. He was an absolutely appaling candidate when he did run whose main contribution was locking up a hell of a lot of money and some votes which otherwise would have probably gone mostly to Rubio and lessened the chances of Trump being nominated.

Whatever happens in this scenario, it has to be bad news for Trump.
 
To build on Veej's point, there really is a fascinating book to be written about how Trump came to be the candidate. Not a study of Trump, but as a look at the people and systems at the heart of the GOP for the twenty-thirty years preceding 2016. Even as somebody who knows little about US politics, and doesn't particularly care to learn, I think it would be very interesting. Not sure it can really be written before 2030, mind.
 
He's too soon to Dubya and - as we saw in 2016 - not that great at primary campaigning, so he won't get anywhere. All it does is remove him from 2016, which may or may not do anything
 
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