Independent Tannu Tuva

[Gorro Rubio]

I recently found out that what is now the Republic of Tuva in Asian Russia used to be an independent state (the People's Republic of Tannu Tuva) between 1921 and 1943. However, Stalin absorbed it into the Russian SSR in the latter year, with the rank of Autonomous Oblast rather than as a separate SSR.

What would have happen if the country had retained its independence, or had become a SSR? Would it have achieve independence in 1991. I could see it as another scenario of post-Cold War Russian expansionism, especially as it's likely that a big Russian minority or even plurality would have stayed in any case. Could it have become a sticking point in Soviet/Russian-Chinese relations?

 

[Ricardolindo]

What would have happen if the country had retained its independence, or had become a SSR? Would it have achieve independence in 1991. I could see it as another scenario of post-Cold War Russian expansionism, especially as it's likely that a big Russian minority or even plurality would have stayed in any case. Could it have become a sticking point in Soviet/Russian-Chinese relations?

Tuva could not have become a SSR, its population was just too small. It could have remained independent, though. I see few problems with the Russian minority. Even in our timeline, Russians were never a plurality of the population of Tuva and their percentage of the population has decreased a lot since the fall of the Soviet Union.

 

[I Saw A Red Sky]

Can't see it being much more than a smaller, poorer Mongolia.

 

[Gorro Rubio]

Even in our timeline, Russians were never a plurality of the population of Tuva and their percentage of the population has decreased a lot since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Yes, you're right. I was under the impression that it had Kazakhstan-like demographics, but Russians never managed to be more 40% of the population after annexation, and have suffered a big decline since the 60s.

 

[Tamar]

What if this happened, and also Mongolia actually did wind up being annexed into the USSR (as I think was sometimes floated only for everyone to reject it)?

 

[Ricardolindo]

What if this happened, and also Mongolia actually did wind up being annexed into the USSR (as I think was sometimes floated only for everyone to reject it)?

I posted a thread about that with a twist, https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/mongolian-ssr-with-buryat-assr.5711/.

 

[Coiler]

Tuva is a desperately poor place that exported all of nine million dollars (cue Dr. Evil voice) worth of stuff in the last year before the Ukraine war. It also has a population and regional GDP (from what I could find) comparable to Transnistria, an artificial statelet held afloat for political reasons that wouldn't exist ITTL.

It'd be even worse as an independent country. I can see people wanting Russia to annex it, and if not it'll be one of the poorest Eurasian places and run what economy it has on material exports and remittances.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Tuva is a desperately poor place that exported all of nine million dollars (cue Dr. Evil voice) worth of stuff in the last year before the Ukraine war. It also has a population and regional GDP (from what I could find) comparable to Transnistria, an artificial statelet held afloat for political reasons that wouldn't exist ITTL.

It'd be even worse as an independent country. I can see people wanting Russia to annex it, and if not it'll be one of the poorest Eurasian places and run what economy it has on material exports and remittances.

Is it possible that Tannu Tuva would unite with Mongolia? While Tuvans are not Mongols, they have Mongol cultural influence, and Tannu Tuva may see unification with Mongolia as a better alternative than being an extremely small and poor independent state.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Tuva is a desperately poor place that exported all of nine million dollars (cue Dr. Evil voice) worth of stuff in the last year before the Ukraine war. It also has a population and regional GDP (from what I could find) comparable to Transnistria, an artificial statelet held afloat for political reasons that wouldn't exist ITTL.

It'd be even worse as an independent country. I can see people wanting Russia to annex it, and if not it'll be one of the poorest Eurasian places and run what economy it has on material exports and remittances.

Though if it is a Soviet satellite not much will likely change internally in the postwar years prior to the fall of Communism.

Once that happens though, they will likely be at the mercy of copper, zinc and lead prices, and while likely remaining independent it would be dependent on Russian mining concerns (unless the Chinese take the opportunity to invest there).