How badly would Britain be affected in the 18th to 19th century if Ireland becomes an independent republic?

[Christian]

Not really interested in the question of plausibility, but more of a thought experiment.

Say, around the late 18th to very early 19th century, Ireland manages to break free of Britain and take the entirety of the country with them, how much would Britain be affected by that? I think I heard someone say that Irishmen provided a good chunk of the population, not to mention a hell of a lot of the navy as well.

 

[JesterBL]

The biggest impact would be shattering the illusion of security Britain had from foreign invasion during the time period, assuming an independent Ireland is hostile and aligned against them.

Ireland was thoroughly depopulated following the Irish Potato Famine. It still isn't even up to that level of population into the present day. The British did not heavily rely on Ireland for manpower or materials in the 18th or 19th century.

 

[Charles EP M.]

It depends on how it happens, probably - Britain will feel humiliated either way but an Ireland that became independent because of French help after the revolution/with Napoleon runs the risk of Britain coming back to settle scores er I mean save the good decent Irish from the 'orrible Jacobin ones.

Either way it's a huge blow to how Britain feels about its own power, as Jester says. A big impact will be changes to the military and political cliques to stop a similar event. Assuming Ireland liberates itself due to mumble-mumble, a big impact will be a lot of argument about what things the arguer doesn't like caused the 'mutiny' and how it might happen HERE if we don't do X, Y, and Z.

Long term depends on how the republic develops. We could get chummy, at least if both countries' elites get on. (SLP's own The Emerald Isles had two stories where a 19th century republic is an unequal regime that goes through an internal revolution) Also, this is an Ireland independent before the Great Famine, which may not happen as in OTL anyway (itself a huge POD), and without a Northern Ireland still in the UK: two things that linger over the two countries now don't.

 

[JesterBL]

Also, this is an Ireland independent before the Great Famine, which may not happen as in OTL anyway (itself a huge POD), and without a Northern Ireland still in the UK: two things that linger over the two countries now don't.

I believe I saw here or at The Other Place an independent Ireland (perhaps Jacobite) which still had the Great Famine*, because that regime still had the same incentives to prioritize food exports and a political system which still advantaged landholders. Changes the historiography quite a bit to make it much more clearly 'we did it to our own' rather than being one of the many crimes of the British Empire.

*to be clear I think the scale would be smaller in almost any independent Ireland scenario, but the possibility would still be there

 

[Elektronaut]

Losing Ireland purely in-of-itself wouldn't really be an issue. As said, the main concern with Ireland from the time of the Yorkist pretenders onwards was of denying it as a launching post for invasion/power projection from the continent (Mostly by Spain, then later by France) rather than it being particularly important for resources etc.

The bigger issue is why it's long-term independent, which without a doubt would be because there's a continental power which can enforce itself over Britain in one of its sphere of influence, and particularly enforce itself over Britain at sea.

Or to put it another way, the scenario presupposes that Britain has been relegated to second-ranking status, which yes, would significantly change things for Britain and the rest of the world.

 

[Thande]

Losing Ireland purely in-of-itself wouldn't really be an issue. As said, the main concern with Ireland from the time of the Yorkist pretenders onwards was of denying it as a launching post for invasion/power projection from the continent (Mostly by Spain, then later by France) rather than it being particularly important for resources etc.

The bigger issue is why it's long-term independent, which without a doubt would be because there's a continental power which can enforce itself over Britain in one of its sphere of influence, and particularly enforce itself over Britain at sea.

Or to put it another way, the scenario presupposes that Britain has been relegated to second-ranking status, which yes, would significantly change things for Britain and the rest of the world.

That would be my first thought as well. Of course, the trouble is that you can use the same argument to explain why it's implausible that communist Cuba still exists off the coast of the US in OTL, thirty years after any protection by an external power dried up. Not that the geopolitical situation is comparable, but one could imagine a hostile Ireland playing a similar role in British politics as 'convenient Other competitively chest-beaten about by British politicians of Irish descent whilst posing no actual threat'.

 

[Charles EP M.]

British MP De Velara brings down the struggling government for attempted detente with Red Ireland.

 

[SpanishSpy]

British MP De Velara brings down the struggling government for attempted detente with Red Ireland.

 

[Elektronaut]

That would be my first thought as well. Of course, the trouble is that you can use the same argument to explain why it's implausible that communist Cuba still exists off the coast of the US in OTL, thirty years after any protection by an external power dried up. Not that the geopolitical situation is comparable, but one could imagine a hostile Ireland playing a similar role in British politics as 'convenient Other competitively chest-beaten about by British politicians of Irish descent whilst posing no actual threat'.

If US-Soviet relations had followed the same pattern as Anglo-French relations in the 18th century, then we can assume the US and the Soviets would have gone to outright war at least once, possibly twice, during the period of the OTL Cold War. In which case (assuming a similar sort of 18th century years' long conflict with no nukes) it's pretty much guaranteed that Cuba would indeed have been invaded repeatedly by the US.

I don't think the dynamic of a diminished Britain and an Ireland which is backed by the continent and obviously so close to home would have worked in favour of restraint about Ireland.