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Gustavus Adolphus Doesn’t Die in 1632 at the Battle of Lutzen

DaleCoz

Well-known member
Note: I haven’t read much of Eric Flint’s 1632 series—forty or fifty pages into the first one, so I might be stepping into an already thoroughly mined area here. With that in mind:

This one takes a bit of explanation if you aren’t into this period of European history. Gustavus was a Swedish king who turned Sweden into a major European power during the Thirty Years War, intervening on the Protestant side and tilting the balance of power drastically. He is considered by some historians to have been a broad spectrum political, economic and military genius, turning Sweden, which had been a sleepy, medieval country into an economic and military great power.

Under Gustavus, Sweden pioneered a tactic of using very mobile field artillery as a part of the Swedish army’s battles, giving them a major firepower advantage.

The Swedes arguably won the battle of Lutzen, but in the (in this case literal) fog of war the king and a small entourage got separated from the rest of the army, behind enemy lines, and the king was killed.

He was in his late thirties at the time, with potentially decades of rule ahead of him.

After his death, the Protestant side lost momentum, though the Thirty Years War went on for more than a decade after his death, until 1648. In the later stages, it became less a religious war and more a battle between Catholic France and the Catholic Hapsburgs, with the Protestant German princes in a tactical alliance with France.

So what happens if he lives? Does he set the foundations for Sweden remaining a great power? Does he defeat the Hapsburg forces decisively, maybe even making the Thirty Years War the Fifteen Years War? Doesn’t quite have the ring to it, does it?

Historically, Sweden did remain involved in the Thirty Years War after Gustavus died, and won quite a few battles in northern Germany. They even briefly made it as far south as Bohemia.

Success in the Thirty Years War might have had a big indirect impact on British history. Gustavus was protecting Frederick V of Palatine, who was trying to convince the Swedish king to help him regain his lands. The two disagreed over whether Lutherans and Calvinists should have equal rights in the restored rule, but that might eventually have been thrashed out.

Let’s say Gustavus survives and restores Frederick to power in Palatine. Maybe he even goes further and restores him to the throne of Bohemia, which he had occupied for about a year before being overthrown by Catholic forces.

That last part isn’t necessary and might be difficult to pull off. It also isn’t necessary to the British connection.

And what would that connection be? Frederick was the brother-in-law of Charles I, who famously lost his crown and his life in the English Civil War. He was also the father of Prince Rupert of the Rhine, Duke of Cumberland. Prince Rupert had a long and influential career, mostly in England, as a prominent Royalist commander in the Civil War, eventually the supreme Royalist commander in that war, as a naval leader in that war and as a Royalist privateer in the Caribbean at one point. When Charles II restored royal power in England, Rupert played a prominent role in building up English sea power. He also helped found Hudson Bay Company in what is now Canada.

And if Gustavus succeeds in restoring Frederick to power in the Palatinate, it is quite possible that Rupert would have stayed home and not been available to do any of that stuff.

So we have spreading what-if questions. What would Gustavus have done with decades more of life? If Sweden dominated northern Germany, would Prussia have had room to grow and become a great power> What would Rupert have done or not done? If he wasn’t there for the English Civil War, who, if anyone, would have taken his place on the Royalist side? Would an alternate Royalist commander have been more or less effective than Rupert? Would the English Civil War have lasted longer or ended sooner?
 
Needless to say, this one's getting it's own article when I eventually get to it.

To be succinct, a lot depends on whether he's able to break into Southern Germany when in a match against Tilly or Wallenstein- the historic record here suggests possibly not but there's not much to go on.

What I can say is that Frederick V is basically irrelevant here. Historically he died something like 2 weeks after the Battle of Lutzen, so we can safely say that's just not going to change. His heir, Karl Ludwig, was significantly less obstinate and much more willing to compromise, to the vast relief of every Protestant power in northern Europe. I would expect, if Gustavus Adolphus is able to dictate terms, I suspect Karl Ludwig gets the Lower Palatinate back (the Upper Palatinate may be conceded to Bavaria for peace) but Bohemia isn't even going to enter the picture.

Beyond that, there's vague hints as to plans- I'm aware of a plan to secularise Mainz and give it as a new Principality under Oxenstierna for example- and I'd expect Sweden to take all of Pomerania, but you've got to extrapolate a lot as to whether, for example, Cologne and Trier would survive as well, where else Brandenburg might be compensated with or how much the Habsburgs themselves lose.
 
Being a Swede myself, I'm somewhat embarrassed over just how little I am able to speculate over what this means for the remainder of the Thirty Years' War. Frankly, I can make no intelligent contribution on that point.

For the history of Sweden's administrative evolution, however, it means quite a lot. See, Gustavus Adolphus was not just a great Swedish warrior king, he was also a great government reformer.

Under his direction, Sweden got its first codified Order of the Riksdag and Instrument of Government, which clearly lay down many aspects that had been rather ad hoc and ambiguous regarding the how the Riksdag was to operate and how the King were to relate to the Riksdag. Specifically, it was Gustavus Adolphus who instituted that the Swedish King may make no law against the consent of the Riksdag, which in itself is quite fun, because unlike in Britain were this was a hardwon right of Parliament's that they had had to fight for and which the monarchy was long quite bitter about, the Swedish Riksdag had long been fairly content with just going along with whatever the King wanted, and Gustavus Adolphus more or less just instituted the whole "the King may make no law without the consent of the Riksdag" principle as a free gift to the Riksdag to show how pleased he was with them and it was good PR, making him look all magnanimous and concensus-seeking (needless to say, the Riksdag never failed to pass any law after that that Gustavus Adolphus desired).

Probably even more importantly was of course his reforms of central administration, as Gustavus Adolphus was the King who instituted the first five Royal Colleges of Sweden (colleges, because their names were taken from the Latin collegium as opposed to the French département), the College of the Chancery, the College of the Treasury, the College of War, the College of the Admiralty, and the Supreme Court. Though theoretically these five were meant to be equals, this didn't last for too long. Originally, much like in Britain, the Treasure did manage to develop something of a primacy over the other Colleges simply on account of them holding the purse strings, but following Gustavus Adolphus' death and Oxenstierna taking power, he used his position as Realm Chancellor to make sure that the College of the Chancery ended up having primacy over the other colleges. His method was rather clever, in that it actually brings to mind Stalin's rise to power. The Chancery acted as the royal secretariat (indeed, the position of Realm Chancellor had evolved from the prior medieval office of Scribe of the King), and Oxenstierna used his position as the spider in the net of all administrative communication and correspondence to the fullest, and in particular made sure that whenever a vacancy arose at any of the other colleges, a brother, cousin, or brother-in-law of his got appointed to that post.

Gustavus Adolphus surviving the War can consequently end up having very significant effects on Swedish administrative development.
 
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