Germany takes more of Lorraine

[Jackson Lennock]

Bismark later regretted not taking Briey-Longwy in 1871 because of the iron ore there. EDIT: I Cannot find a source for this statement, so please ignore it.

What if Germany's border in 1871 had been set a bit further west? France would lack the major iron deposits of OTL - rendering the country a lot weaker down the line compared to Germany. The remainder of the border is set along the Moselle.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Bismark later regretted not taking Briey-Longwy in 1871 because of the iron ore there.

What if Germany's border in 1871 had been set a bit further west? France would lack the major iron deposits of OTL - rendering the country a lot weaker down the line compared to Germany. The remainder of the border is set along the Moselle.

View attachment 64297

The problem is that at the time, Bismarck was opposed to even annexing the French speaking Metz area and actually wondered for the rest of his life whether annexing the Metz area had been a good idea.

 

[raharris1973]

The problem is that at the time, Bismarck was opposed to even annexing the French speaking Metz area and actually wondered for the rest of his life whether annexing the Metz area had been a good idea.

This gets said and asserted a lot.

But according to what source did he regret taking Metz? And was this source documented by him, in his own lifetime? If so, when?

Bismark later regretted not taking Briey-Longwy in 1871 because of the iron ore there.

Says you.

Which you got according to what source? And was this source documented by him, in his own lifetime? If so, when?

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Says you.

Which you got according to what source? And was this source documented by him, in his own lifetime? If so, when?

I'm sorry, I recalled reading it on the other forum. But after digging around, I can't seem to find which thread said it. I recalled wrong.

 

[Md139115]

I do vaguely recall reading in Dreadnought by Robert K. Massie that Bismarck didn’t really want any French land to be taken, but that while he could see a case for taking the historic duchy of Alsace as it had once been part of the stem Duchy of Swabia/Kingdom of East Francia, taking any bits of Lorraine would only send the wrong message and anger many in Europe. Unfortunately, I don’t have the book at present so I couldn’t tell you either exactly what was written or what sources Massie was citing for this.

 

[Ricardolindo]

This gets said and asserted a lot.

But according to what source did he regret taking Metz? And was this source documented by him, in his own lifetime? If so, when?

https://books.google.pt/books?id=Y4pLQ1jC1JIC&pg=PA222&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false says so.

I do vaguely recall reading in Dreadnought by Robert K. Massie that Bismarck didn’t really want any French land to be taken, but that while he could see a case for taking the historic duchy of Alsace as it had once been part of the stem Duchy of Swabia/Kingdom of East Francia, taking any bits of Lorraine would only send the wrong message and anger many in Europe. Unfortunately, I don’t have the book at present so I couldn’t tell you either exactly what was written or what sources Massie was citing for this.

The book page I linked to shows Bismarck considered the annexation of Alsace militarily necessary.

 

[ChrisNuttall]

The Germans are caught in a trap. On one hand, the steps they need to take steps to prevent a French recovery and eventual rematch; on the other, taking those steps will turn France into a permanently hostile nation and practically guarantee the French will seek a rematch when they have a chance. It will also make them seem much more powerful and threatening to the rest of Europe, leading to alliences forming against them. Even if ATLFrance isn't up to challenging the Germans on their own, the Russians might support them and/or Germany might get into a war with Russia later on and then have the French stab them in the back. There's also the very real problem of just what to do with the French population of the annexed regions, who cannot be expected to be loyal to the Reich.

Assuming they do, how badly will France be hampered? The French will certainly start to move industry south - perhaps even move it to the colonies. (The Germans don't have a strong navy yet.) They'd also have much more of a shock to the system, forcing more reform (or worse, a tilt towards something more fascistic; they might start blaming the former government for the defeat and purge them all). Given time, i think the French will rebuild ... but will they have the time? Or ... defeat in the war might lead to more challenges across the French Empire, if the French look weak.

I'm not sure where that would go, but it would be interesting from a historical POV.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

The Germans are caught in a trap. On one hand, the steps they need to take steps to prevent a French recovery and eventual rematch; on the other, taking those steps will turn France into a permanently hostile nation and practically guarantee the French will seek a rematch when they have a chance. It will also make them seem much more powerful and threatening to the rest of Europe, leading to alliences forming against them. Even if ATLFrance isn't up to challenging the Germans on their own, the Russians might support them and/or Germany might get into a war with Russia later on and then have the French stab them in the back. There's also the very real problem of just what to do with the French population of the annexed regions, who cannot be expected to be loyal to the Reich.

Assuming they do, how badly will France be hampered? The French will certainly start to move industry south - perhaps even move it to the colonies. (The Germans don't have a strong navy yet.) They'd also have much more of a shock to the system, forcing more reform (or worse, a tilt towards something more fascistic; they might start blaming the former government for the defeat and purge them all). Given time, i think the French will rebuild ... but will they have the time? Or ... defeat in the war might lead to more challenges across the French Empire, if the French look weak.

I'm not sure where that would go, but it would be interesting from a historical POV.

Germany here controls about 45% of Europe's iron ore and France has lost about 90% of its own ore to Germany. And unlike the ore of Lorraine, France's other ore isn't close to coal. Even if France can import raw materials, the cost of importing goods will make industrialization more expensive, and thus there will be less industry.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/1885949?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents

Even if France is more revanchist than OTL, they were already fairly revanchist. Here the French have extremely fewer means to fight a war and the Germans have a more defensible boundary.

 

[raharris1973]

Thanks to all who supplied sources or who pointed to a lack of specific sources when I raised a flag on it. I already was able to look up the Hajo Halborn source and found it useful.

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

Germany here controls about 45% of Europe's iron ore and France has lost about 90% of its own ore to Germany. And unlike the ore of Lorraine, France's other ore isn't close to coal. Even if France can import raw materials, the cost of importing goods will make industrialization more expensive, and thus there will be less industry.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/1885949?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents

Even if France is more revanchist than OTL, they were already fairly revanchist. Here the French have extremely fewer means to fight a war and the Germans have a more defensible boundary.

What the Germans have also done here is make Britain incredibly fucking nervous much earlier than OTL and in all likelihood willing to be firmer and more open about defending France and Belgium in the future.

The balance of power will have been tilted way too much in Germany's favour for our liking.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

What the Germans have also done here is make Britain incredibly fucking nervous much earlier than OTL and in all likelihood willing to be firmer and more open about defending France and Belgium in the future.

The balance of power will have been tilted way too much in Germany's favour for our liking.

The iron of Briey-Longwy wasn't discovered until later IIRC. Britain will get antsy, but not immediately.

 

[raharris1973]

What the Germans have also done here is make Britain incredibly fucking nervous much earlier than OTL and in all likelihood willing to be firmer and more open about defending France and Belgium in the future.

The balance of power will have been tilted way too much in Germany's favour for our liking.

So what? How much does any increased British nervousness about Germany and the safety of Belgium and France change in terms of concrete British policy, and British capability development, over time?

Does Britain prepare to tie itself in to continental alliances or Entente-like commitments, two generations early? Build up its land power closer to a continental standard? Tie itself so close to France that it emboldens a French war of revanche, and backs France in fighting one to victory? Forget all about the great game with Russia and reconcile with her to form an anti-German front in the 1870s or 1880s? Become a preemptive opponent of Germany's overseas colonial enterprise? Some would say that last is doing Germany a favor and preventing a waste of its resources.

If shifts like these are all too extreme for Britain, how much is a somewhat more Germanophobic 'mood' in Britain really costing young Germany? British businesspeople will still see the growing empire as a great place to make money.

If Germany, knowing Britain is more likely a belligerent in the event of a German rematch with France, never invades France, then Germany avoids WWI and its defeat, ending up better off than OTL.

Even if Germany ends up dragged into a war in Europe against a Franco-Russian alliance using a Schlieffen Plan, and Britain comes in as an opponent right away, does the extra preparation and planning Britain has done to be an expeditionary and blockade power intervening against Germany cause problems as bad and as fast for Germany sufficient to outweigh the benefits (compared to OTL) that Germany gains from stealing a chunk of French natural resources and economic growth and financial capabilities and domestic arms manufacturing potential for however many decades and starting the war from a tactically more advanced position?

count me as #notconvinceditsworseforPrussiaGermany

 

[Ricardolindo]

Thanks to all who supplied sources or who pointed to a lack of specific sources when I raised a flag on it. I already was able to look up the Hajo Halborn source and found it useful.

Glad to help.

The iron of Briey-Longwy wasn't discovered until later IIRC. Britain will get antsy, but not immediately.

That's exactly the problem with Germany annexing Briey-Longwy, though. The iron hadn't been found yet so they had no reason to piss off France even more by annexing even more territory.

 

[iainbhx]

Glad to help.

That's exactly the problem with Germany annexing Briey-Longwy, though. The iron hadn't been found yet so they had no reason to piss off France even more by annexing even more territory.

That's not quite true. The Minette iron ores of the region were known about, although the actual full extent of the deposits were not known, however, they were rather high in phosphorous which rendered them difficult to use. It wasn't in 1875/6 when the Thomas-Gilchrist process was proved at the Tredegar works that suddenly they became very viable. Of course, Minette ores aren't that high yield and were replaced eventually by the higher yield ores used today except in China and to a lesser extent in the USA. There's still a lot of Iron ore in Lorraine (and a bit of Luxembourg around Differdange, it just doesn't make a lot of economic sense to extract it.

See the UK's constant attempts to get access to iron ore from Kiruna in Sweden in the Azureverse and getting iron ore from British South East Africa whilst initially having to reopen poorer quality ironstone pits in Teeside and the Forest of Dean.