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Franco assassinated in 1948

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
Don’t know how realistic it is, but the US had at least some ideas on intervening in Spain to get a more pro-US regime. If fears over socialists or communists taking power is there then maybe we’d see a coup of some sort?
I think we'd definitely see the US interfering in Spain in order to strengthen the most pro-American figures of the regime. As for who could succeed Franco, a brief search indicates Fidel Dávila Arrondo, a fairly influential figure in the Francoist regime of the time, may be a good candidate. He was an Alfonsine monarchist and I think he may have restored the monarchy under Don Juan, future Count of Barcelona, right then.
 

Gorro Rubio

the GROTESQUE chaos of a complaints unit
Location
Hampstead, UK/Alicante, ES
Pronouns
he/him
I have forgotten most of what I knew from early Francoism, but 1948 is interesting as Franco had basically noped on Don Juan from 1945 as the latter denounced the former by publishing the Lausanne Manifesto. The Prince of Asturias was still a young teen, so my bet is that there would be some kind of power struggle between the monarchist generals advocating some kind of regency (Kindelán, Orgaz) and the falangists like Muñoz-Grandes (of "fighting in the Eastern Front with the Wehrmacht" fame) pushing for a proper corporatist state that would get rid of the monarchy for good.

The carlists and arguably Falange were a joke by then, so it really depends on what the Americans and NATO act.
 
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Ventriloquist

New member
In keeping with what folks have said ITT, I imagine the US would install a pro-US dictator and would use Spain as a testing ground for, say, hardline Austrian economics.

God knows, it'd be a different kind of hell for the people of Spain than Francoism, but in the short term it'd turbocharge the Spanish economy in the wake of Francoist autarky. Might lead to cultural liberalisation over time, if not political liberalisation.
 

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
In keeping with what folks have said ITT, I imagine the US would install a pro-US dictator and would use Spain as a testing ground for, say, hardline Austrian economics.

God knows, it'd be a different kind of hell for the people of Spain than Francoism, but in the short term it'd turbocharge the Spanish economy in the wake of Francoist autarky. Might lead to cultural liberalisation over time, if not political liberalisation.
Austrian economics only became widespread in the late 70s.
 

History Learner

Active member
So, does anyone have any thoughts on this? It's worth noting Spain was still suffering from autarky and was still barely getting out of international isolation.
Luis Carrero Blanco is still alive, as he wasn't assassinated until 1973, so he is the natural successor and the one that Franco wanted. So the succession is relatively easy, although a Carlist King is likely to be crowned sometime in the 1950s as there is no Unification Degree by Franco and associated purges of Royalists. Until that point the Carlists, since the 1930s, had been extremely powerful and influential, with a strong financial base, armed wing, and youth as well as women's groups; this would also help to give the regime more legitimacy and power, instead of leaving it as a personality cult dedicated solely to Franco.

Economics is, however, much trickery to speculate upon. For one, I don't know what Blanco thought about Franco's economic policies, with the latter only moving from autarky in 1956. Doing so in 1948 is obviously better for not just the regime but also Spain, because by the OTL 1960s Spain was absolutely booming to the extent it was speculated that Fascism would make a come-back based upon the success of the Spanish Model:

The biggest success was the acquisition of needed capital. The end of autarky brought in roughly $8 billion worth of foreign direct investment. Increased tourism, twenty million visitors came to Spain, and remittances from abroad supplied funds for needed capital goods. The new policies and flood of money into Spain from abroad fueled a fifteen-year growth in the economy, from $12 billion to $76 billion, that was surpassed only by Japan.​
The economic transformation was so powerful that some thought it gave fascism a new lease on life. In an October 7, 1968 editorial entitled “Fascism for the Future,” the American historian Gabriel Jackson speculated that fascism would outlive Franco. As he wrote, “a Fraquist type of dictatorship may continue for decades in Spain and by doing so may provide a model for other nations that achieve a minimum of economic prosperity in the absence of strong traditions of political liberty.”​

To get an idea of how much of an effect no autarky and earlier Marshall Aid funding would have:
This article uses historical fact as a natural experiment to measure a country’s welfare loss from shifting from an allowed to a restricted trade situation, based on international trade theory. A welfare loss of 8 per cent of GDP is found. The evolution of domestic import and export prices in Spain in 1940–58 fits international trade theory assumptions. The main years of autarky are not those commonly considered, but 1947–55, marked by the exclusion of Spain from the Marshall Plan and the Madrid Treaty between Franco’s regime and the US. The upper-bound welfare loss for 1947–55 is 26 per cent of GDP.
A booming Spain from the late 1940s on, instead of a late start in the 1960s, might be sufficient to place it firmly on the same level as the UK or France; i.e. a $2 Trillion + economy. I wouldn't be surprised if "Francoist" Spain is able to last until the present given this, in the same way the PRC has outlived the collapse of Global Communism. The question is, however, whether the support/political ability to do such was there, by Blanco and the various factions in the regime.
 
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