Foot Four Years Early; What Would Happen If Michael Foot Won the 1976 Leadership Election?

[Time Enough]

Something that I’ve pondered for awhile now is what would have happened if Michael Foot managed to win the 1976 Labour leadership election?

I do think the Lab-Lib pact occurs due to Foot actively pushing for it in OTL though it could be chaotic due to the Liberals not being as fond of a more Left Wing Leader, Additionally an earlier push for Devolution as Foot was a proponent of it OTL.

As for the economy, a thing to ponder was that Foot was particularly an economics person, so there’s a possibility that depending on who’s Chancellor he’s barracked into supporting Deflationary measures and other such ideas.

 

[AH Layard]

I had considered this for a TL once. I think the unfortunate reality if Foot were elected as leader and PM there would be an immediate run on the pound. That may sound harsh but the currency markets were highly vulnerable after the collapse of Bretton Woods and Britain had to go to the IMF later that year with a PM who was much more acceptable to international opinion.

Foot probably chooses Shore as Chancellor: in OTL he pushed Callaghan for this appointment. On the pound falling Shore tries for import controls, leading to an almighty row with the EEC, and minor cuts which do not please the markets at all.

Labour was on the verge of losing its majority and I think it's quite possible that the Government falls soon with some right wing Labour MPs e.g. Reg Prentice and Brian Walden voting with the Tories. Thatcher comes in three years early with a hefty majority. Howe had been talking about billions of cuts in public expenditure at that time so chances are we get more austerity alongside restrictions in the money supply.

 

[Elektronaut]

Yeah, I think this is a surefire way to an early Thatcher premiership. Even if you assume that nothing changes in terms of market impact and things go as per OTL, you're dealing with an immediate economic crisis and no majority, and Callghan really pulled out all the stops to try to keep the Cabinet together over the summer. I just don't see that happening with Foot.

 

[Time Enough]

Foot probably chooses Shore as Chancellor: in OTL he pushed Callaghan for this appointment. On the pound falling Shore tries for import controls, leading to an almighty row with the EEC, and minor cuts which do not please the markets at all.

Labour was on the verge of losing its majority and I think it's quite possible that the Government falls soon with some right wing Labour MPs e.g. Reg Prentice and Brian Walden voting with the Tories. Thatcher comes in three years early with a hefty majority. Howe had been talking about billions of cuts in public expenditure at that time so chances are we get more austerity alongside restrictions in the money supply.

Yeah, I think this is a surefire way to an early Thatcher premiership. Even if you assume that nothing changes in terms of market impact and things go as per OTL, you're dealing with an immediate economic crisis and no majority, and Callghan really pulled out all the stops to try to keep the Cabinet together over the summer. I just don't see that happening with Foot.

So the most likely reaction is Labour lasts a few months, maybe less than a year before collapsing, very little time to get much done at all really (I could see a bit of legislation being pushed through but not much). Also Foot’s temperament is particularly suited to economic crisis, Peter Shore probably tries to bulldoze everyone and likely causes Cabinet resignations and the like. Interesting if not as rosy as expected.

Whilst it would be seen as discrediting the Left and probably putting them in a box, it doesn’t help Thatcher entirely, even if she has a hefty majority to pursued plans I don’t think the Late 70s would be very good place even with austerity measures and money supply restrictions.

Also if Foot fails after a few months, well it means Healey likely gets in but also I could see the Labour Left being more angry and try and fight things out more, there man got in and was bulldozed by the establishment.

 

[AH Layard]

Yeah the left will see it as a bankers' conspiracy as they did in 1931, while the majority of voters will probably see a Foot government as a shambles. So the distance between Labour and floating voters will be even wider.

If Thatcher is in government earlier then Rhodesia and Scotland would both be very tricky to resolve given divisions within the party. But she arguably has greater cover on the economy given the crisis of 1976, you probably wouldn't see the same level of outcry as happened in 1980-81 OTL.

 

[Time Enough]

Yeah the left will see it as a bankers' conspiracy as they did in 1931, while the majority of voters will probably see a Foot government as a shambles. So the distance between Labour and floating voters will be even wider.

True, well that combined with Denis Healey (who is probably going to become leader, given there isn’t much choice for Labour beyond him, Shore is probably sunk by being Chancellor) not being a good campaigner probably helps Labour just as bad in maybe 81’/82’. Though the economy could have even more problems recovering if 79’ oil crash still occurs and rattles the economy.

If Thatcher is in government earlier then Rhodesia and Scotland would both be very tricky to resolve given divisions within the party. But she arguably has greater cover on the economy given the crisis of 1976, you probably wouldn't see the same level of outcry as happened in 1980-81 OTL.

True, with Scotland she probably puts in Teddy Taylor before things go badly for her and is forced out to put someone more moderate in. I could see Thatcher being forced to push for Devolution referendum despite her misgivings. Rhodesia would also likely be a mess and probably lead to a crisis when the end draws near for the nation, I would also add Ireland and Airey Neave also probably doesn’t breed good times for the late 70s.

 

[Catalunya]

True, well that combined with Denis Healey (who is probably going to become leader, given there isn’t much choice for Labour beyond him, Shore is probably sunk by being Chancellor) not being a good campaigner probably helps Labour just as bad in maybe 81’/82’. Though the economy could have even more problems recovering if 79’ oil crash still occurs and rattles the economy.

True, with Scotland she probably puts in Teddy Taylor before things go badly for her and is forced out to put someone more moderate in. I could see Thatcher being forced to push for Devolution referendum despite her misgivings. Rhodesia would also likely be a mess and probably lead to a crisis when the end draws near for the nation, I would also add Ireland and Airey Neave also probably doesn’t breed good times for the late 70s.

Could all of this perhaps lead to a shorter Thatcher prime ministership, or will she survive a whole decade again?

 

[Time Enough]

Could all of this perhaps lead to a shorter Thatcher prime ministership, or will she survive a whole decade again?

Well given it’s early enough, it’s fairly possible she’s only PM for about seven years or so and hands the reigns to Cecil Parkinson as originally pondered till he got caught with a love child and an affair. She probably doesn’t have hundred seat majorities either so she’s probably more likely leave whilst the going is good.