- Location
- North Solihull
- Pronouns
- she/her
Off the back of intermittant chat about what life is like in the Miliverse...
With shades of 1964; if in line with contemporary polling and expectations, Labour somehow ended up as the/a party of government in 2015 but still lost the seats of both Morley and Outwood and Paisley and Renfrewshire South, who would replace Ed Balls and Douglas Alexander respectively in the new cabinet?
For the sake of the 'what if', assume some confluence of factors has made a Labour minority/small majority possible, while also leading to the unexpected loss of these two seats (as per OTL). Assume also that no coalition deals are assigning Great Offices of State to any other party.
- Ed Balls - A higher vote share and more Labour seats might mean that in this ALT Morley and Outwood stays red, however 2017 saw the party gain several other marginal constituencies where it didn't even expect to be competitive and which had not even been close in 2015 (many in fact becoming bluer on 2010) while M&O remained firmly blue.
In OTL Chris Leslie replaced Balls in the Shadow Cabinet, having previously been Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Now the job he previously shadowed is seen as both deputy to the Chancellor and the second most senior minister at the Treasury; however within Cabinet itself it is a relatively junior role. Leslie's move is one that makes more sense in a party remaining in opposition - and anticipating a leadership contest and probable reshuffle within a few months anyway - than in a party entering government where someone of greater profile and seniority might be expected. Though perhaps there is a precedent.
Would another shadow cabinet figure with a more prominant brief get the promotion instead - say Chukka (Business), or Rachel Reeves (Work and Pensions)? Or would Miliband - knowing first hand of what tension between No 10 and No 11 can do - try to promote a close ally like Sadiq Khan? In OTL Khan had options when the party remained in opposition, if Labour are in government I see no reason why he wouldn't remain in national politics. Of course Khan had not previously been a member of Cabinet, or held an economic brief in the Shadow Cabinet
- Douglas Alexander - Short of a stunted SNP wave, this seat is probably falling to a young MP who may or may not achieve some prominance in the new House. In OTL Hilary Benn became the new Shadow Foreign Secretary; a Harman interim appointment who remained in position under Harman's successor. This is one I could see sticking, given Benn's OTL positive perception in the shadow role, but are there other potential candidates?
Its also worth considering that Ed Miliband has, to some extent, exceeded expections in this scenario, even allowing for these seat losses. He now has the rare opportunity to remake the core of his Cabinet almost from scratch, and probably a fair bit of political capital with which to do it.
With Labour in government, would either Balls or Alexander seek to do a full Patrick Gordon Walker and make an electoral comeback? Potentially difficult for Balls given his image, potentially impossible for Alexander with the sudden extinction of the Scottish safe seat (and a former Scottish Labour MP being forced to retreat to an English constituency is probably not the image Labour wants to put out at this time). If not a by-election, then maybe a minority government-related snappy?
With shades of 1964; if in line with contemporary polling and expectations, Labour somehow ended up as the/a party of government in 2015 but still lost the seats of both Morley and Outwood and Paisley and Renfrewshire South, who would replace Ed Balls and Douglas Alexander respectively in the new cabinet?
For the sake of the 'what if', assume some confluence of factors has made a Labour minority/small majority possible, while also leading to the unexpected loss of these two seats (as per OTL). Assume also that no coalition deals are assigning Great Offices of State to any other party.
- Ed Balls - A higher vote share and more Labour seats might mean that in this ALT Morley and Outwood stays red, however 2017 saw the party gain several other marginal constituencies where it didn't even expect to be competitive and which had not even been close in 2015 (many in fact becoming bluer on 2010) while M&O remained firmly blue.
In OTL Chris Leslie replaced Balls in the Shadow Cabinet, having previously been Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Now the job he previously shadowed is seen as both deputy to the Chancellor and the second most senior minister at the Treasury; however within Cabinet itself it is a relatively junior role. Leslie's move is one that makes more sense in a party remaining in opposition - and anticipating a leadership contest and probable reshuffle within a few months anyway - than in a party entering government where someone of greater profile and seniority might be expected. Though perhaps there is a precedent.
Would another shadow cabinet figure with a more prominant brief get the promotion instead - say Chukka (Business), or Rachel Reeves (Work and Pensions)? Or would Miliband - knowing first hand of what tension between No 10 and No 11 can do - try to promote a close ally like Sadiq Khan? In OTL Khan had options when the party remained in opposition, if Labour are in government I see no reason why he wouldn't remain in national politics. Of course Khan had not previously been a member of Cabinet, or held an economic brief in the Shadow Cabinet
- Douglas Alexander - Short of a stunted SNP wave, this seat is probably falling to a young MP who may or may not achieve some prominance in the new House. In OTL Hilary Benn became the new Shadow Foreign Secretary; a Harman interim appointment who remained in position under Harman's successor. This is one I could see sticking, given Benn's OTL positive perception in the shadow role, but are there other potential candidates?
Its also worth considering that Ed Miliband has, to some extent, exceeded expections in this scenario, even allowing for these seat losses. He now has the rare opportunity to remake the core of his Cabinet almost from scratch, and probably a fair bit of political capital with which to do it.
With Labour in government, would either Balls or Alexander seek to do a full Patrick Gordon Walker and make an electoral comeback? Potentially difficult for Balls given his image, potentially impossible for Alexander with the sudden extinction of the Scottish safe seat (and a former Scottish Labour MP being forced to retreat to an English constituency is probably not the image Labour wants to put out at this time). If not a by-election, then maybe a minority government-related snappy?
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